2023 NFL Free Agents: Predictions for Tom Brady, Geno Smith, More amid Latest Rumors
With the first two playoff teams ousted, the majority of the NFL can set its sights on the 2023 offseason. The goal for many franchises will be to stand where the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers are this morning a year from now: Moving on in the postseason.
While building through the draft will be a key element for many teams, we can expect a lot of activity when free agency kicks off in March as well. Several quality players, and perhaps even a future Hall of Famer or two, will be available on the open market.
The unknown, of course, is which players will actually make it to market and where they will land.
Here, we'll dive into some of the latest free-agent buzz, and not so coincidentally, we'll start by examining a couple of teams that played on Saturday.
49ers Could View Tom Brady as a QB Option This Offseason
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The San Francisco 49ers defeated the rival Seattle Seahawks in convincing fashion on Saturday, thanks in no small part to the play of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy.
The 2022 NFL draft's Mr. Irrelevant finished the game 18-of-30 for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for a score.
Purdy, of course, is the third starting quarterback San Francisco has utilized this season, following injuries to Trey Lance (ankle) and Jimmy Garoppolo (foot). The 49ers haven't lost with the rookie under center, and having both Lance and Purdy under contract for 2023 gives San Francisco options.
However, the 49ers may not limit their quarterback competition to the two young passers. According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, a free-agent veteran, specifically Tom Brady, could enter the equation as well:
Brady is in the final year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and if he decides to play at age 46 next season, San Francisco would seem like an ideal landing spot for him. He grew up a 49ers fan, and he would surely like to finish his career with a legitimate title contender.
But is he the right fit for the 49ers? Given his age and likely contract demands—he has a projected market value of $40.8 million annually—perhaps not. San Francisco is projected to have $13.7 million in cap space, and it has little reason not to believe in Purdy for the long term.
The Iowa State product is now 6-0 as a starter. He posted an impressive 107.3 passer rating during the regular season, and he had a 131.5 rating in his playoff debut. Unless he falls flat in his playoff debut, the 49ers should be happy to enter 2023 with a Lance-Purdy quarterback competition.
Brady, meanwhile, can look to continue his career with a franchise that has bigger quarterback questions.
Prediction: Brady does not sign with San Francisco
Seahawks Hoping to Extend Geno Smith
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While Seattle fell short on Saturday, the fact that it reached the postseason in Year 1 post-Russell Wilson was impressive. Most people had low expectations for the Seahawks after they dealt their franchise quarterback to the Denver Broncos.
Seattle wouldn't have gotten into the playoffs without quarterback Geno Smith. The journeyman, who was a second-round pick of the New York Jets back in 2013, emerged as a quality starter this season.
The 32-year-old finished the year with 30 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, a 100.9 passer rating and a league-high 69.8 percent completion rate.
Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks are hoping to keep Smith around for a few more seasons, per NFL.com's Michael Baca:
"Smith, who is set to become a free agent this offseason, is expected to return as the Seahawks starting QB in 2023, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday on NFL GameDay Morning. Rapoport adds that the Seahawks are trying to work on a new deal for Smith's return, but if necessary the team also has the option of placing the franchise tag on the veteran."
Armed with $47.5 million in projected cap space, the Seahawks could afford to use the franchise tag on Smith, if they have to. Some might even argue that using the tag would be prudent, as it would give them another year in which to evaluate the West Virginia product before committing to a long-term deal.
However, Smith's stellar 2022 campaign already doesn't seem like a fluke. He played well during Wilson's absence with a hand injury last season too. While he went just 1-2 as a starter, he threw five touchdowns with only one interception and posted a 103.0 passer rating.
After three seasons and 21 starts (including playoffs) with Seattle, Smith should have nothing to prove. Our guess is that the Seahawks will be perfectly comfortable inking him to a multi-year contract.
Prediction: Seattle signs Smith to a three-year extension.
Raiders Interested in Both Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo
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The Las Vegas Raiders fell short of the postseason, and they seem to be placing the blame on quarterback Derek Carr.
The Raiders' long-time starter was benched for the final two games and is on his way out, one way or another.
To replace Carr, Las Vegas is reportedly looking at both Brady and Garoppolo in free agency. This is logical, as both quarterbacks played for head coach Josh McDaniels when he was the New England Patriots' offensive coordinator.
"I can tell you unequivocally, this is a fact, the Raiders are looking into it. Like, the Raiders are looking into going and acquiring Tom Brady," Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer told the Dan Patrick Show. "...This is something that the Raiders are doing their research on. Same goes for Jimmy Garoppolo."
Though he'll turn 46 in August, Brady seems the better option for Las Vegas, at least in the short term. Aside from the torn ACL he suffered in 2008, he has never missed a game due to injury. Garoppolo has a notable injury history and couldn't be counted on to last the entire 2023 season.
The big question is whether Brady will choose to continue playing and whether the Raiders can put enough of a core together to entice him to come to Vegas. A lot will hinge on their ability to re-sign Josh Jacobs, improve an offensive line that surrendered 35 sacks and bolster their 28th-ranked defense.
Doing all of that, and signing Brady, with just $20.9 million in projected cap space will be difficult—though the Raiders will clear another $29.3 million off the books by releasing or trading Carr.
However, Las Vegas may be Brady's best option if San Francisco is indeed out of the mix.
Expect the Raiders to make the financial moves necessary to go all-in with Brady for 2023, even if that leaves them rebuilding again a year from now.
Prediction: Brady signs a one-year deal with Las Vegas.
*Cap, contract and market information via Spotrac.
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