NFL MVP Race 2022-23: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 18

Joe TanseyJanuary 3, 2023

NFL MVP Race 2022-23: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 18

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    KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 01: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws the ball during the second half in the game against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on January 01, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
    David Eulitt/Getty Images

    The NFL Most Valuable Player award now appears to be Patrick Mahomes' to lose.

    The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is the overwhelming betting favorite to win the vote after Week 17.

    Mahomes holds a lead over Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Justin Jefferson.

    Hurts did not play for the second straight week because of a sprained shoulder. Even though he was not on the field for the Philadelphia Eagles, a case could be made that his MVP argument improved because of what the Eagles lacked on offense against the New Orleans Saints.

    Burrow and Allen have one less game of work compared to the other MVP candidates since the Monday night clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills was suspended after Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field. The matter of their MVP chases is not as significant right now as we await a further update on Hamlin's health. He was in critical condition on Monday night after receiving CPR on the field and being transported to the hospital.

MVP Odds

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    CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 18: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) throws the football in action during a game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears on December 18, 2022, at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
    Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Patrick Mahomes (-750; bet $750 to win $100)

    Joe Burrow (+750; bet $100 to win $750)

    Josh Allen (+1000)

    Jalen Hurts (+1200)

    Justin Jefferson (+10000)

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

1. Patrick Mahomes

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    KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 01: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws on the run in the second quarter of an AFC West game between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs on January 1, 2023 at GEHA Field at.Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
    Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Patrick Mahomes extended his lead in passing yards and passing touchdowns with a stellar performance against the Denver Broncos.

    Mahomes threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's win that kept the Chiefs alive for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

    The Kansas City quarterback leads the NFL with 5,048 passing yards and 40 touchdowns.

    He has one more chance to pad his stats in Week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders. That game was flexed into the Saturday afternoon window.

    The national television coverage of his game should only help Mahomes finish off his MVP resume.

    Mahomes would have an even better MVP case if Kansas City secures home-field advantage with a win and some help.

    The team accomplishment of landing the top seed could put a bow on the MVP race in the eyes of many voters.

2 & 3. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen

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    CINCINNATI, OHIO - JANUARY 02: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms up prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium on January 02, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
    Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

    The two AFC quarterbacks chasing Mahomes in the MVP race did not complete their game on Monday.

    The health of Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin is paramount when it comes to any conversation about the Buffalo-Cincinnati game.

    When, or if, that game resumes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow will have a chance to state their cases to MVP voters.

    Burrow has 4,260 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. Allen has 4,029 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 746 rushing yards, which is a career high.

4. Jalen Hurts

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    CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 18: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles talks with Quez Watkins #16 and DeVonta Smith #6 against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 18, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
    Michael Reaves/Getty Images

    The case against Jalen Hurts is that he was not on the field in each of the last two weeks.

    Hurts' shoulder injury slowed down his MVP run and the Eagles' chances of resting in Week 18.

    The argument in favor of Hurts for MVP is that he is so valuable to the Eagles offense, and what he does in the air and on the ground can't be replicated by anyone—including backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.

    Hurts has 3,472 passing yards, 747 rushing yards and 35 total touchdowns.

    He was on his way to winning MVP before he was knocked out for two weeks with the shoulder injury.

    Hurts could play in Week 18 against the New York Giants to ensure that the Eagles land the top seed in the NFC.

    Any performance from Hurts may be too late to catch up with Mahomes in the MVP vote, but some voters could make the case that without Hurts the Eagles are an average team, making him worthy of being named the most valuable player following Philadelphia's success.


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