NBA Power Rankings: Giannis and Bucks Quietly Dominate Without Key Players
The opening week-and-change of the 2022-23 NBA season has been packed with surprises.
The Los Angeles Lakers don't have a win. The Brooklyn Nets only have one. The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers are below .500. And despite trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell this offseason, the Utah Jazz are somehow 4-1.
Amid what feels like one of the league's more chaotic starts (at least in terms of wins and losses), one constant remains: Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.
They're the only undefeated team left, and though it's early, it's not hard to imagine them returning to the mountaintop in 2023.
They did enough in the opening days to slide up in the power rankings, and they were far from the only squad to move after a week-and-a-half of unexpected results.
Based on a wildly subjective formula that accounts for both recent performance and title prospects, here are this week's updated power rankings.
30. Indiana Pacers (1-4)
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Previous Rank: 28
Net Rating: -6.0
In terms of wins and losses, things are going about as expected for the Indiana Pacers, who seemed firmly in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes before the season even started.
But there are plenty of good signs here. Tyrese Haliburton looks like a bona fide lead scorer and playmaker, with averages of 22.6 points and 10.0 assists. And Indiana may already have his backcourt partner in Bennedict Mathurin.
No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero is the only rookie averaging more than Mathurin's 20.8 points. And when he shares the floor with Haliburton, the Pacers are minus-0.2 points per 100 possessions (compared to the much worse overall net rating above).
29. Orlando Magic (0-5)
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Previous Rank: 23
Net Rating: -8.4
There was some optimism the Orlando Magic might be a little more competitive this season, and that might still be true, but they’re getting the best possible outcomes for a team near the outset of a rebuild.
After Wednesday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando is now 0-5. In the season immediately preceding Victor Wembanyama’s arrival, a bad record is fine.
Combining that with plenty of flashes from young players like Paolo Banchero (who already looks like a natural, three-level scoring vet), Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Bol Bol makes this about as joyous as a winless start can get.
28. Los Angeles Lakers (0-4)
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Previous Rank: 17
Net Rating: -7.1
The Los Angeles Lakers are an entirely predictable mess.
From the moment they acquired Russell Westbrook just over a year ago, it seemed abundantly clear to most outside the front office that he didn't fit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Instead of unloading him this summer, they brought those three back with a less experienced supporting cast than the one that helped them go 33-49 last season.
L.A. is reportedly thinking about waiting 20 games before deciding whether to move him in-season, but that's simply too long. It's a quarter of the season. And if this keeps up for 16 more games, the chances of the Lakers making the playoffs are almost nonexistent.
27. San Antonio Spurs (3-2)
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Previous Rank: 30
Net Rating: -3.0
We should've known a full-fledged tank just wasn't possible with a Gregg Popovich-coached team.
The San Antonio Spurs don't have any stars. They might not even have any potential stars. But they play hard, move the ball, and in what is a departure from Popovich-led squads, make a lot of threes. San Antonio is top 10 in makes per game.
Between now and the trade deadline, though, San Antonio could lean even further into the pursuit of a high draft pick and the chance to land Victor Wembanyama by trading veterans Jakob Poeltl and Doug McDermott.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-3)
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Previous Rank: 27
Net Rating: -1.1
When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the lineup, the Oklahoma City Thunder should generally be competitive.
He played the first two games of the season, and OKC suffered two single-digit losses. Then, it lost the one game he sat by 10, before rattling off back-to-back wins with him back in the lineup.
SGA is a legitimate All-Star talent on a roster that simply can't give him enough support to compete for the playoffs. Even with all defensive eyes on him, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.3 points and 6.5 assists.
25. Houston Rockets (1-4)
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Previous Rank: 25
Net Rating: -7.8
The Houston Rockets are struggling to get enough stops to compete, but there is a lot to be encouraged about with this young group.
Through five games, Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are both averaging over 20 points and shooting over 40 percent from three. And Porter also has 5.4 assists to boast.
If the game slows down for rookie Jabari Smith Jr. (who's currently shooting 34.8 percent from the field and 35.1 percent from three), Houston could start playing spoiler later in the season.
24. Detroit Pistons (1-4)
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Previous Rank: 24
Net Rating: -10.4
Despite the apparent win-now addition of Bojan Bogdanović, the Detroit Pistons aren't quite ready to consistently compete yet.
Bogdanović (who's averaging 23.2 points while shooting 51.2 percent from three) has been good. Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren have all shown plenty of flashes, too.
But beyond that, poor shooting and inconsistent defense (staples of young teams) are simply too much to overcome right now.
23. Charlotte Hornets (2-2)
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Previous Rank: 26
Net Rating: +6.6
LaMelo Ball (left ankle sprain) has yet to make his season debut, but the Charlotte Hornets have still managed to be more competitive than expected.
The 2-2 start is largely the product of solid play from Gordon Hayward, who could be improving his trade value with 19.8 points and 4.5 assists, but Dennis Smith Jr. deserves a nod, too.
Yes, that Dennis Smith Jr. stepped into Charlotte's starting five after Terry Rozier went down with an ankle injury and is averaging 13.5 points and 6.3 assists.
22. Sacramento Kings (0-4)
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Previous Rank: 19
Net Rating: -6.5
Prior to opening week, there was cautious optimism among NBA fans and writers that the Sacramento Kings might end a playoff drought that's approaching two decades in length.
They have two borderline All-Stars at the top of the roster in De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, and surrounding them with shooting from Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray was the right plan this summer.
But none of that optimism has translated to a win yet, and the Kings' chances of making the playoffs have dropped to 8 percent in FiveThirtyEight's projection system.
Any Sacramento fans clinging to those odds or whatever optimism is left can take comfort in the start of Murray's career. After going for 18 points in his first career start on Thursday, he's now averaging 17.7 points and shooting 41.7 percent from three.
21. Utah Jazz (4-1)
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Previous Rank: 29
Net Rating: +5.6
In hindsight, the Utah Jazz's previous rank was probably a little silly. Sure, the stars (Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell) are gone, but they got a lot of rotation-level talent in return. Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley are still around. And everyone has something to prove (even if it's just improved trade value).
With everyone flying up and down the floor with chips on their shoulders, the Jazz are making multiple efforts on defensive possessions, sharing the ball on the other end and hitting threes in bunches (they're currently third in threes per game).
The biggest story, though, may be the emergence of Lauri Markkanen as a bona fide small forward. Through five games, Markkanen is averaging 22.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists.
20. Washington Wizards (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 21
Net Rating: +4.7
Back tightness limiting Bradley Beal to 22 minutes in Tuesday's win over the Detroit Pistons should be mildly concerning, but the Washington Wizards now have enough depth to survive such stretches against bad teams.
Through four games, Kyle Kuzma is the team's leading scorer, and Monte Morris, Rui Hachimura and Will Barton are all averaging between 9.5 and 11.3 points while shooting over 40 percent from three-point range. Daniel Gafford and Delon Wright both raise the Wizards' defensive upside.
Whenever Beal and Kristaps Porzingis get rolling toward numbers more in line with their career norms, Washington should be in even better shape.
19. Brooklyn Nets (1-4)
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Previous Rank: 11
Net Rating: -8.7
Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are both averaging north of 29 points per game, but the Brooklyn Nets are loaded with issues after that.
First and foremost, the defense is a disaster. The numbers could stabilize over time, but they are last in points allowed per 100 possessions, and there's simply no one offering resistance at the rim.
Health has been an issue too, as Seth Curry has yet to play and Joe Harris is slowly ramping up after missing most of last season with an injury.
What has gotten (and will continue to get) the most attention, though, is Ben Simmons. Through five games he has 28 points and 22 fouls. He had an attempted finish at the rim in Thursday's loss that was reminiscent of the shanks scene in Tin Cup.
This isn't the space for an amateur diagnosis of anything, but Simmons appears to be in his own head.
And if he can't rediscover the confidence that helped him average 15.9 points during the four seasons he played prior to 2022-23, Brooklyn may have a liability that even KD and Kyrie can't overcome.
18. New York Knicks (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 22
Net Rating: +8.5
Jalen Brunson is more than living up to the four-year, $104 million contract he signed with the New York Knicks this offseason.
From Day 1, he was clearly the team's best playmaker and the engine of its offense. And after going for 27 points and 13 assists in an overtime win over the Charlotte Hornets, he's now averaging 20.0 and 8.5.
Now that he's in more of an alpha role, plays like this feel more common:
There was already plenty of B- and C-level talent on the Knicks. Even if they'd just added a decent point guard, they would've been better. Having one who could compete for an All-Star spot could push New York to contend for a top-six spot in the East.
17. Philadelphia 76ers (1-4)
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Previous Rank: 5
Net Rating: -3.1
The Philadelphia 76ers seemed primed to join the East's inner sanctum of title contenders this season, but a 1-4 start has led to all kinds of questions.
Can you get the best versions of James Harden and Joel Embiid in the same game? If not, who sacrifices? Last season, the duo seemed to mesh instantly. In 2022-23, the ball dominance of each seems to be affecting the other.
Is there any way to get Tyrese Maxey the looks he consistently needs and has earned? Wednesday's loss marked the first time this season that he'd gotten to the 20-shot mark.
Can a backcourt with Maxey and Harden defend at a title contender's level? After surrendering 119 to the Toronto Raptors, they're now 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions.
There's plenty of time and talent to figure all of this out, but there are some real problems to work through.
16. Miami Heat (2-4)
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Previous Rank: 10
Net Rating: -2.2
The Miami Heat are dealing with two big changes this offseason.
First, it's impossible to ignore the absence of P.J. Tucker, who shot 41.5 percent from three and had a plus-2.1 net-rating swing last season.
In theory, Caleb Martin should be able to step in provide a lot of what Tucker did, but he hasn't brought the same level of toughness and versatility on defense so far.
The other adjustment is the insertion of reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro into the starting five.
After Thursday's loss to the Golden State Warriors, in which Herro went 3-of-12 from the field and was minus-10 for the game, he's now been a zero or worse in the plus-minus column in five of Miami's six games.
With Erik Spoelstra's coaching and Jimmy Butler's hyper-competitiveness, chances are the Heat will work through both of the above in time, but escaping the play-in range may not be the given it was supposed to be.
15. Chicago Bulls (3-2)
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Previous Rank: 18
Net Rating: +1.6
Defense was supposed to be a problem for the Chicago Bulls as they awaited the return of Lonzo Ball, but that end of the floor is where they're winning games.
It's early, but they have a top-10 defensive rating and five players averaging at least one steal per game.
Offensively, things have been a bit rougher (as evidenced by a bottom-10 effective field-goal percentage), but they still have three players over 17 points per game (DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic).
14. Portland Trail Blazers (4-1)
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Previous Rank: 20
Net Rating: +2.3
Damian Lillard leaving Wednesday's loss with a calf strain put a bit of a damper on the Portland Trail Blazers' hot start, but they've still outperformed expectations to this point (by a pretty wide margin) thanks to a stellar starting five.
Even with the injury-shortened fifth outing, Lillard is putting up 31.0 points, 4.6 assists and 4.0 threes per game. In a blowout win over the Denver Nuggets, Anfernee Simons showed his upside with 22 points in six minutes. Josh Hart is averaging 9.4 rebounds, Jerami Grant is shooting 42.1 percent from deep and Jusuf Nurkic is averaging a double-double.
Once Gary Payton II gets healthy and is added to a reserve unit that includes Nassir Little and Shaedon Sharpe, the Blazers should be firmly in the hunt for a top-six finish in the West.
13. Los Angeles Clippers (2-3)
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Previous Rank: 6
Net Rating: -5.3
Kawhi Leonard is back! Well, kinda.
The Los Angeles Clippers have played five games, and Leonard has totaled just 42 minutes off the bench from two of those games.
It makes sense to bring him along slowly, but the strategy is not without its downsides. Of course, not having your best player on the floor is a pretty obvious, fundamental problem. But having him in and out of the rotation might also throw off (or at least delay the development of) chemistry. And with the West being as loaded as it is, trying to coast through the regular season isn't as easy as it once was.
These three early losses may not mean much in the long run, but if L.A. winds up a game or two out of a more desired playoff seed, it may look back on losses like Thursday's to the Oklahoma City Thunder with some regret.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2)
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Previous Rank: 12
Net Rating: +3.5
The inevitable growing pains that came with the acquisition of Rudy Gobert (and the necessity to play ultra-big) may take a little longer to work through than expected.
After a loss to the Utah Jazz, Anthony Edwards told The Athletic, "The smaller we go, the better it is for me."
Not exactly an endorsement of the Karl-Anthony Towns-Gobert pairing.
A few days later, after a loss to the San Antonio Spurs, one of those big guys, Towns, took a shot at Edwards' diet.
"I know you all think it's funny up here when he talks about Popeye's and all that s--t," KAT said. "That doesn't make me happy to hear. We're high-level athletes."
The next game, Edwards went off for 34 points in a revenge win over the Spurs, and Minnesota was plus-8 in the 22 minutes he shared the floor with both bigs.
Early in the season, there figures to be plenty more ups and downs like those above.
11. Toronto Raptors (3-2)
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Previous Rank: 16
Net Rating: +2.5
Most people forecasting a leap for the Toronto Raptors expected immense individual progression from Scottie Barnes. That could still be in the cards, but the biggest takeaway from their 3-2 start is the superstar play of Pascal Siakam.
After going for 20 points and 13 assists in Wednesday's win over the Philadelphia 76ers, Siakam is now averaging 25.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists.
The biggest development, of course, is the passing. With point guard-level assist numbers coming from Siakam and even more playmaking to unlock from Barnes, Toronto can lean further into positionless basketball than just about anyone in the league.
10. Atlanta Hawks (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 15
Net Rating: +1.2
The Atlanta Hawks had a misstep against the Charlotte Hornets, but the early returns on the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray partnership are good.
In the opening game of the season, each registered a 20-10 game. Through four, Young and Murray are averaging a combined 46.1 points and 18.6 assists.
The amount of attention they command on defense is making life easier for their third (and perhaps most underrated star). After going for 19 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks in Wednesday's win, John Collins is now up to 19.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks on the season.
9. Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 14
Net Rating: +12.4
With Darius Garland missing all but the first few minutes of the season with an eye injury, Donovan Mitchell has gotten a chance to run the offense. The returns have been great.
Beyond the Cleveland Cavaliers being 3-1, Mitchell eclipsed 30 points in each of his first three games. Perhaps more importantly, since we already knew he could score, he got to eight assists in three of his four performances.
Once Garland returns, Cleveland will have unpredictability at the point of attack that it never had last season. And that should lead to plenty of wide-open scoring opportunities for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
8. Dallas Mavericks (2-2)
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Previous Rank: 9
Net Rating: +11.8
Luka Dončić's MVP candidacy is off to a heck of a start. After an eye-popping 41 points, 14 assists and 11 rebounds in Thursday's win over the Brooklyn Nets, Dončić is now averaging 36.3, 9.3 and 9.5 on the young season.
As gaudy as those numbers are, though, they're not all that surprising. Luka has managed to make the spectacular almost mundane.
What may be more interesting for the Dallas Mavericks is coach Jason Kidd's rotations. Ceremonially starting JaVale McGee isn't really working (he's only had one game with a positive plus-minus). And Christian Wood is dominating in limited time off the bench (he's been a positive in all four games).
In just 25.8 minutes, he's averaging 21.0 points and 2.5 threes while shooting 66.7 percent from deep.
He and Luka have shared the floor a decent amount, but they need to be starting games before long.
7. New Orleans Pelicans (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 13
Net Rating: +7.7
With Zion Williamson (right posterior hip, low back contusion) and Brandon Ingram (concussion protocol) both out, the New Orleans Pelicans weren't supposed to beat the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday, but that's exactly what happened.
This team is deep, well-coached and versatile. Even without its top two scorers, it's going to be a tough out on most nights.
Zion, Ingram and CJ McCollum are all averaging more than 20 points per game. Jonas Valančiūnas is averaging a double-double with an underrated assist mark of 2.8. Herbert Jones, Larry Nance Jr. and Jose Alvarado are all potential defensive nightmares. Trey Murphy III is 13-of-19 from three on the season.
As if all of that wasn't enough, rookie Dyson Daniels stepped up in the absence of the stars on Tuesday and put up 11 points, three steals and three rebounds in just 22 minutes.
There are so many quality players on this roster that it'll be tough to get everyone the minutes they probably deserve.
6. Denver Nuggets (3-2)
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Previous Rank: 4
Net Rating: -4.2
The Denver Nuggets are a good example of how dramatically a couple of games can skew net rating at this point of a season.
An unexpected blowout at the hands of the Utah Jazz and a more expected one from the Portland Trail Blazers has Denver's point differential below zero, but two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokić's personal mark is plus-5.6 per game.
When he's on the floor, regardless of who's with him, you can see title-contending upside. Denver can now surround Jokić with tons of shooting from Michael Porter Jr. (who missed Wednesday's game for load management on his back), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jamal Murray and Bruce Brown. KCP, Brown and Aaron Gordon are providing high-end defense.
With a lot of the little stuff Jokić was responsible for in 2021-22 off his plate, he's managed to casually average 22.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 1.6 steals on 65.6 percent shooting through five games.
5. Memphis Grizzlies (4-1)
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Previous Rank: 8
Net Rating: -1.7
The Memphis Grizzlies lost Kyle Anderson and De'Anthony Melton to other second units this summer. They've yet to get a second from Jaren Jackson Jr., who's recovering from a foot injury.
And in terms of wins and losses, they haven't really missed a beat.
Betting on a scouting department and developmentally-minded coaches seemed to be the right call. Generally speaking, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy and Santi Aldama have looked comfortable soaking up the minutes of the aforementioned role players from last season.
And more importantly, Ja Morant somehow looks better, while his backcourt mate, Desmond Bane, is making his own star turn. Through five games, Morant and Bane are averaging 32.6 and 22.6 points, respectively.
4. Phoenix Suns (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 7
Net Rating: +11.4
They won't be able to truly exorcise their playoff demons until, well, the playoffs, but the Phoenix Suns are already putting any regular-season concerns to rest.
They've already beaten the Dallas Mavericks, who were responsible for their embarrassing demise last spring, in a come-from-behind win in the season opener. They've also lost an overtime thriller to the better-than-expected Portland Trail Blazers and crushed the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors.
Kawhi Leonard is still on a minutes restriction, and Klay Thompson got ejected from the most recent game, but Phoenix looked dominant for the bulk of both of those contests.
The usual suspects (Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton) are all playing well, and they may have gotten a steal from the Atlanta Hawks, who traded Jock Landale to them. Through four games, Landale is better than Ayton in offensive rebounding percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, block percentage and turnover percentage.
3. Golden State Warriors (3-2)
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Previous Rank: 1
Net Rating: -1.0
The Golden State Warriors have a winning record and four of the last eight championships, but they've looked far from immortal to this point of the season.
In their second outing, they were down big to the Nuggets for the bulk of the game before a late run made the score look far more respectable. In their fourth game, they got blown out bad enough by the Phoenix Suns that Klay Thompson lost his cool in a way he never has before.
On the bright side, the issues seem pretty easily identifiable right now. Each of the five starters—Klay, Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney—have comfortably positive averages in the plus-minus column, so it's easy to point to the young bench.
The defense seemingly falls apart when either James Wiseman or Jonathan Kuminga is on the floor, something that should improve over time as they pile up more on-court reps. And Jordan Poole's frigid shooting marks (43.4 percent from the field and 32.0 percent from three) figure to warm up soon.
2. Boston Celtics (3-1)
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Previous Rank: 3
Net Rating: +1.3
Jayson Tatum is off to a blazing hot start for the Boston Celtics, with averages of 32.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 3.0 threes and 1.3 blocks per game. But he hasn't led the team to a 3-1 start by himself.
In most other situations, Jaylen Brown's per-game marks of 24.0 points, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals would be garnering tons of attention. Getting that kind of production from your second option is a luxury.
Add a wealth of playmaking from Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon, as well as some hot shooting from Grant Williams, Sam Hauser and Al Horford to that top two, and you have a full-fledged basketball orchestra.
1. Milwaukee Bucks (3-0)
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Previous Rank: 2
Net Rating: +10.7
The Milwaukee Bucks haven't had Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles for a single second this season, and it really hasn't mattered.
As long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is available, the Bucks can stay in a game with anyone.
On the season, Giannis is averaging an eye-popping 36.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.0 blocks in just 34 minutes.
In a come-from-behind win against Kevin Durant on Wednesday, Giannis reasserted his "best in the world" case with 43 points on 16-of-25 shooting.
Performances like that are almost starting to feel pedestrian for him.
Once Milwaukee gets healthy again, it might cruise to the top spot in the East.
