Hacking the 2022 MLB Playoffs: What's Working and What's Failing Thus Far
Now that we're two weeks into the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason, it's a good time to pause to try to make sense of it all.
So, prepare yourself for some capital-T Takes on what is and isn't working within and about the MLB playoffs
This is to say that we were interested in breaking down the playoffs from both a competitive perspective and from an entertainment one. It's generally about what trends are sticking out, and whether they fall into the "bad thing" or "good thing" camps.
We have eight to review, so let's get to it.
Working: Long Postseason Starts Are Back
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Remember all those times starting pitchers went deep into games in the 2021 playoffs?
Trick question: There were none. Or, at least, not many. There were only four instances of a starter logging at least seven innings in last year's postseason, and two of them were by San Francisco Giants hurler Logan Webb in the opening round.
This trend continuing was always a dubious prospect given that last year's starters had the excuse of not being built up as much after the shortened 2020 season. It's nonetheless a relief not only that this isn't continuing, but has indeed been reversed:
Teams that have seen their starters go seven-plus innings have had a competitive advantage, albeit a slight one. They're 7-4, with the starters themselves accounting for six wins, three losses and one no-decision—alas, poor George Kirby.
This isn't even counting the 11 other starts of at least six innings, for which the recipient teams are an eye-popping 10-1. It also seems fair to draw a line between these long starts and how the average game time has been shortened from 220 minutes to 212 minutes.
Failing: Starting Pitchers Are Having a Rough Time in Relief
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You might be expecting a rant about how starting pitchers being used in relief during the postseason is What's Wrong with Baseball Today. But, nah. Suffice it to say that we read MLB.com's Mike Petriello's generally positive exposé from last October.
Still, the times when the strategy backfires never fail to stand out. Think the Los Angeles Dodgers' overtaxation of Max Scherzer last year or, well, any of the three high-profile failures by starters in relief roles so far this postseason.
The big one occurred in Game 1 of the American League Division Series between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros, when reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray's second pitch to Yordan Álvarez got demolished for a walk-off home run:
Speaking of, fellow Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber was also at the business end of a walk-off home run by Oscar Gonzalez in the Wild Card Series. Jameson Taillon is less decorated, but he's still another prominent starter who took an L in relief in the ALDS.
It's doubtful these failures will end the practice of teams using starting pitchers in relief, and nor should they. But at the least, they're a reminder that it's not a foolproof strategy.
Working: Home Runs Still Rule, But Not As much
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It just wouldn't be a proper postseason without some memorable home runs, so thank goodness that this year's iteration is delivering in spades.
In addition to Álvarez's and Gonzalez's walk-offs, we can also talk about Jeremy Peña's go-ahead shot from the 18th inning of Game 3 of the ALDS or Josh Bell's opening-round shocker off Max Scherzer. Or better yet, how about Kyle Schwarber's 488-foot bolt from Tuesday?
Yet what if we told you that home runs have been less of a big deal so far in these playoffs?
As noted by MLB.com's Sarah Langs, home runs are generating fewer runs and haven't been quite as predictive of success as they were in 2021. They're also just simply less frequent:
One might argue that fewer home runs equals less entertainment value, but we'll offer that other run-scoring plays can be just as, if not more dramatic. Basically, we defy anyone to argue that those hits by Gonzalez, Jake Cronenworth and Jean Segura weren't delightful.
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Failing: And Yet, There's Also Been Less Action
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This is if we define action as balls in play, anyway. Home runs may be down, but the rate of balls in play (that is, at-bats minus strikeouts and home runs, plus sacrifice flies) is likewise down from 62.4 percent in last year's playoffs to 60.7 percent in this year's playoffs.
Why? Well, we'll tell you why: There are too many darn strikeouts.
Even though the league-wide strikeout rate mercifully dipped down in the regular season, the postseason rate has ticked up to an all-time high:
There is a competitive advantage to be found here. Of the 29 winners of this postseason so far, 20 also won the strikeout battle within the game. There were otherwise three ties and only six defeats in that regard.
From an entertainment perspective, however, this is a drag. We can only hope that the pitch clock and shift regulations push the needle back in the other direction in 2023.
Working: The Energy and Fanfare
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If it feels like the postseason has been a charged experience even despite the relative lack of action, that could be because of the electrical currents coming from both fans and players.
We're no longer in the days of the knives being out for José Bautista just because he flipped his bat. From Rhys Hoskins' iconic bat spike to Josh Naylor rocking the baby to the New York Yankees rocking it right back, showmanship has been a hallmark of the '22 playoffs.
This is, quite unequivocally, freakin' awesome. It's like we're watching actual humans, emotions and all, play the game. It beats the heck out of the Vulcan style that used to pervade MLB. Save that stuff for the holosuite.
Crowds-wise, let Citi Field's collective Richie Tenenbaum moment during Game 3 of the Wild Card Series serve as a reminder that it hasn't all been raucous celebration. But we'll go out on a limb and say that it's mostly been raucous celebration, particularly in Seattle and Philadelphia as the two cities hosted playoff baseball for the first time in 21 and 11 years, respectively.
If one end of the spectrum is playoff games in stadiums left empty due to the pandemic in 2020, then what we're seeing this October is about as close to the other end as it gets.
Failing: The Schedule
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So, something historically weird happened on Tuesday.
Previously, there had never been a case of two different rounds of the playoffs overlapping on the same day. Of course there wouldn't have been. Nobody would do that on purpose, and things were clearly planned in ways to prevent it from happening by accident.
But then, it finally happened when Game 5 of the American League Division Series between the Guardians and Yankees clashed with Game 1 of the National League Championship Series between the Phillies and Padres:
Blame it on Mother Nature if you want. There were two rainouts in the Guardians-Yankees series, the second of which on Monday necessitated the awkward overlap.
Also to blame, though, is whoever had the idea to have an off day between Games 1 and 2 of the series even though neither team had to travel. As Erik Boland of Newsday noted, the apparent explanations for this cover both the necessary (i.e., the lockout messed things up) and the frustrating (TV considerations).
Working: The New Format
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The new playoff format is good, actually.
Yes, there have been some criticisms lobbed at it from various corners of social media and the regular media. Some are even well-argued, such as the one that Travis Sawchik wrote for The Score about how the expansion of the playoffs unjustly makes the regular season an afterthought.
In other words: Shouldn't 100-win steamrollers like Atlanta, the Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers deserve better than to have their fates decided by a crucible of short playoff series?
In theory, yes. But in reality, the unpredictability of the postseason has long been one of its best qualities. And if momentous upsets like the one that the Phillies pulled on Atlanta and the Padres pulled on the Dodgers are any indication, this quality is only going to be heightened by the new 12-team format.
We at least ought to be able to agree that changing the wild-card round to a best-of-three from a one-and-done is for the better, if for no other reason than the games moved along much faster than they had in three of the last four seasons under the old format:
This is life without endless parades of relievers. Isn't it glorious?
Failing: The New Format
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The new playoff format is bad, actually.
Yep, we're both sides-ing this thing. Not because we're reversing course and suddenly giving credence to the notion that a bigger playoff field ruins the regular season, but because we can't help but wonder if the new format is problematic for the top seeds in another way.
As the other eight clubs battled it out for the right to advance during the Wild Card Series, Atlanta, the Dodgers, the Yankees and Houston Astros took five days off. That always had the potential to make rust a factor, and, well, maybe it has?
After winning 212 total games during the regular season, Atlanta and the Dodgers played largely lifeless baseball as they lost their respective Wild Card Series. The Astros and Yankees prevailed, but not without challenges. The Astros mostly trailed the Mariners during the ALDS, and there's something to the notion that the second rainout saved the Yankees.
Look, we don't know how to quantify rust as it pertains to one or even several series. But if the top seeds going down in the Division Series starts to become a pattern over, say, the next five to 10 years, MLB is going to have a real problem on its hands.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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