MLB Playoffs 2022: Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Picks and Predictions
Heading into the postseason, the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres were tied with +1100 odds of winning the NLCS, which were the worst "to reach the World Series" odds that any team had, per FOX Bet Live. (The Guardians were lowest in the AL at +1000.)
And while some people are going to strike it rich on those +1100 tickets, did anyone take a screenshot of (or actually place a bet on) these "straight forecast" odds?
Padres over Phillies or Phillies over Padres when the 111-win Dodgers, 101-win Braves and 101-win Mets were all still standing had to have been outrageous odds.
At least 100-1, right?
Probably closer to 250-1?
Nevertheless, here we are, trying to make predictions for an NLCS matchup that no one of sound mind could have predicted.
We'll look at the top storylines heading into the NLCS before offering up a few intriguing prop bets, awards predictions, and, ultimately, the pick for which team reaches the World Series.
All odds within are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
The Big Storylines Heading into the NLCS
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The NLCS Absolutely No One Was Expecting
A year ago, the No. 6 seed in the MLB postseason didn't exist. A little over a decade ago, there wasn't a No. 5 seed, either. Go back to 1993, and only two teams from each league made the playoffs. And prior to 1969, there was no LCS at all—just the AL's best and NL's best regular-season teams battling in the World Series.
Yet, here we are with No. 5 vs. No. 6 in a stunning NLCS, while the Dodgers faithful clamor for the good ol' days when being the best in the business for six months actually meant something.
The irony is that this new format was supposed to help the top teams at least survive the quarterfinals. They got to rest for a few days before putting their ace on the mound at home against their opponent's third-best or fourth-best starter. In every instance, the No. 1 and No. 2 seed was a huge favorite, at least in Game 1, if not the entire best-of-five series.
But the Padres won three of their five consecutive road games against teams that won at least 100 games during the regular season before taking care of business when they finally got to host two games.
And the Phillies' bats picked the right time to catch fire, putting up six runs in the ninth inning of the first game against St. Louis before averaging 8.0 runs per win over Atlanta.
Juan Soto vs. Bryce Harper
Maybe this is only a big storyline to those of us in the greater D.C. area who plan to cry our way through this NLCS, but it's pretty cool that these two phenoms will square off for a spot in the World Series.
The Washington Nationals were relatively OK with letting Harper walk after the 2018 season because they knew Soto was good enough to take his spot, both in right field and as the face of the franchise. They just neglected to sign Soto to a big deal before he became a big deal, and now he's playing a crucial role for the Padres.
Even without the Nationals backdrop, these are simply two of the most entertaining and most talented players in baseball. They're both capable of delivering huge hits and viral reactions/facial expressions.
It's Been a While
While the Houston Astros are playing in their sixth consecutive ALCS, fans in San Diego and Philadelphia have been waiting a long time for this.
The Phillies last made the NLCS in 2010, anchored by that long-time nucleus of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz. It wasn't that long ago, but it feels like forever since this is their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
For the Padres, you've got to go all the way back to 1998, when Greg Vaughn hit 50 home runs, and guys like Kevin Brown, Trevor Hoffman, Tony Gwynn and Ken Caminiti shouldered the rest of the load.
And if the Padres do rally behind the goose for another series victory, they'll be going for the first World Series title in franchise history.
Prop Bets Worth Considering
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Number of Players to Record 1+ Home Run in NLCS: Over 8.5 (-140)
Kyle Schwarber needs to wake the heck up for this one to hit, but nine players homering in a best-of-seven series is nothing.
Ten unique players homered in the 2021 NLCS, while 13 did so in the 2021 ALCS. That number also reached double digits in both the 2020 ALCS and 2020 NLCS. And unless this one goes down as a sweep, the Padres and Phillies should get there.
The obvious candidates to hit a dinger are Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto for the Phillies, plus Manny Machado and Juan Soto for the Padres.
But more noteworthy than the number of players who should homer is the lack of players who should not. Brandon Marsh homered from the 9-hole for the Phillies in Game 4 against Atlanta, and San Diego's No. 8 hitter Trent Grisham has gone yard three times already this postseason.
Really wish there were more options here than just the 8.5 o/u. Could we get +130 odds on over 9.5? Maybe +250 odds on over 10.5? I'd take either of those, too.
Player to Record Most Hits in NLCS: Bryce Harper (+1100)
What am I missing here?
Harper went 8-for-16 in the NLDS and is batting .435 overall in the postseason. He did hit .196 over his final 29 regular season games, but the two-time NL MVP has clearly snapped out of that funk just in time for the first League Championship Series of his career.
And yet, Manny Machado (+475), Juan Soto (+800), Alec Bohm (+850), Jurickson Profar (+900), J.T. Realmuto (+900), Nick Castellanos (+1000) and Brandon Drury (+1000) are all listed ahead of Harper.
Drury is the especially offensive one. He's 1-for-15 this postseason, did not play in three of San Diego's first seven games and last had a three-hit game more than two months ago.
Total Series Pitcher Strikeouts: Over 106.5 (-110)
A big part of this bet is assuming the series makes it back to San Diego a second time.
If it's a sweep, we need nearly 27 strikeouts per game, which isn't realistic. Even five games and better than 21 total whiffs per contest might be a bit much.
But 107 strikeouts in six games boils down to just 17.8 per game, which should be well within reason for these pitching staffs.
Philadelphia had 43 strikeouts in its four-game NLDS against Atlanta, and the Padres got 44 Ks in their four games against the Dodgers (while also striking out 45 times). That averages out to 21.75 per game.
And that's with no extra-inning games and the home team not even batting in the bottom of the ninth inning in six of those eight games. Give us one game that goes an extra inning or two, and this over should cash by Game 5.
Award Predictions
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Though only a Most Valuable Player of the NLCS will officially be named, here are our predictions for MVP and three other fictitious awards.
MVP: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
While it's tempting to go with red-hot Trent Grisham, who is batting .381 with a 1.328 OPS out of nowhere—he hit .105 with a .353 OPS in his final 26 games of the regular season—the pick almost has to be Machado. He has been San Diego's clear-cut MVP all season long. The Padres wouldn't be here without him, and they aren't winning this series unless he has a solid week.
Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
The sixth inning of Game 2 of the NLDS snowballed on him a bit, but up until those three consecutive ground ball singles, Wheeler had allowed just one run in his previous 27.0 innings of work. Plus, he has solid career numbers against Padres hitters. Whether Philadelphia wins either of his starts remains to be seen, but I expect quality starts in both Games 1 and 5.
Rookie of the NLCS: Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
Not a whole lot of candidates here, though Phillies shortstop Bryson Stott is certainly worthy of consideration. Let's go with Suarez, though, who has been shown a ton of faith thus far in the postseason. He pitched at least one inning in each of San Diego's five wins, doing so with an overall line of 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Most Valuable Reliever: Josh Hader, San Diego Padres
Suarez has been stellar in the set-up role, but Hader has reasserted himself as the king of the ninth. Not only did he mow down the Dodgers to close out each of those three wins, but he was darn near immaculate in the last one, striking out the side on 10 pitches. For all the (deserved) focus that the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade received, the move to get Hader is why the Padres are going to win this series.
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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
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Schedule (All Games on Fox or FS1)
- Game 1: Philadelphia at San Diego, Tuesday, Oct. 18, 8:03 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Philadelphia at San Diego, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 4:35 p.m. ET
- Game 3: San Diego at Philadelphia, Friday, Oct. 21, 7:37 p.m. ET
- Game 4: San Diego at Philadelphia, Saturday, Oct. 22, 7:45 p.m. ET
- Game 5 (if necessary): San Diego at Philadelphia, Sunday, Oct. 23, 2:37 p.m. ET
- Game 6 (if necessary): Philadelphia at San Diego, Monday, Oct. 24, 8:03 p.m. ET
- Game 7 (if necessary): Philadelphia at San Diego, Tuesday, Oct. 25, 8:03 p.m. ET
Regular-Season Series: Phillies 4-3 with plus-6 run differential
Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups (Regular-Season Stats Only)
- Juan Soto vs. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler: 20-for-71 (.282), 5 HR, 22 BB, 19 K
- Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper vs. All San Diego Pitchers: 13-for-89 (.146), 4 HR, 44 K
- Rhys Hoskins vs. Yu Darvish: 6-for-16 (.375), 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
- Manny Machado vs. Aaron Nola: 1-for-13 (.077), 3 K
X-Factor: Closer Situation
In the Padres corner, you've got Josh Hader. He struggled mightily in July and August, but cut the new dad (his first child was born in June) some slack.
He's still arguably the most dominant closer of the past half-decade, and he saved all three of the wins against the Dodgers. Since last giving up an earned run on Sept. 5, Hader has gone 13.2 innings, allowing five hits and two walks with 20 strikeouts.
And in the Phillies corner, it's probably David Robertson at closer? Even though he missed the NLDS with a calf strain? And even though he has as many blown saves as saves (three of each) with a 4.11 ERA dating back to Aug. 21?
If either team is going to blow a ninth-inning lead, got to believe it's Philadelphia, right?
Prediction: Padres in six
In looking at the various batter vs. pitcher matchups, one thing stood out: Most of the primary Phillies hitters have struggled against most of the Padres pitchers. We singled out Harper and Schwarber above, but J.T. Realmuto (.182), Nick Castellanos (.232) and Jean Segura (.224) haven't been much better against San Diego's staff. And against Padres not named Darvish, Hoskins has one hit in 22 at-bats.
The Padres also shut out the Phillies in each of their three regular-season wins.
Should we care at all about that, considering the Phillies just dropped seven, eight and nine runs in wins over an excellent Atlanta pitching staff and seem to be on fire? Probably not. But it's as good a reason as any to make a prediction on this series between these improbable NLCS squads.
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