Every MLB Team's Biggest Surprise of the 2022 Season
A breakout season can be predicted or sometimes even expected based on recent trends and previous production, so identifying each MLB team's biggest surprise is not as simple as focusing on breakout players.
Sometimes it's an unheralded young player taking a surprise step forward. Other times it's a journeyman finally finding a place to call home. Ahead we've highlighted each MLB squad's biggest surprise in 2022.
For
the sake of this discussion, surprise is all about production relative
to expectations, and we're focusing solely on the positive side of
things.
Let's get to it!
Arizona Diamondbacks: 1B Christian Walker
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Christian Walker looked like a potential non-tender candidate last offseason after he posted an 88 OPS+ and just 0.5 WAR in 115 games in 2021, but with club control through the 2024 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks opted to bring him back.
He showed plenty of pop during a 29-homer, 73-RBI season in 2019, but he reached new heights this year, hitting .242/.327/.477 for a 126 OPS+ with 25 doubles, 36 home runs and 94 RBI.
On top of his career-best offensive numbers, Walker also played Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base (17 DRS, 5.2 UZR/150), and that all added up to a team-high 5.1 WAR in 160 games.
Atlanta Braves: RHP Kyle Wright
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Right-hander Kyle Wright was a non-factor during the Atlanta Braves' run to a World Series title last season, making just a pair of spot starts during the regular season and racking up a 9.95 ERA in 6.1 innings of work.
Despite his early MLB struggles, Wright still had all the upside that came with being the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and he earned a spot in the MLB rotation coming out of spring training.
The 27-year-old wound up being baseball's only 20-game winner this year, going 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 180.1 innings, and the Vanderbilt product is now another key piece of an impressive collection of homegrown talent in Atlanta.
Baltimore Orioles: SS Jorge Mateo
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Once upon a time, Jorge Mateo was a highly regarded prospect in the New York Yankees farm system, and prior to the 2016 season, he was the team's No. 1 overall prospect and the No. 26 prospect in baseball.
He was eventually traded to Oakland in the deal that brought Sonny Gray to the Yankees, and then traded again to San Diego, where he made his MLB debut in 2020. But it wasn't until the Orioles claimed him off waivers on Aug. 5, 2021 that he finally found a regular MLB role.
The 27-year-old hit just .221/.267/.379 for an 81 OPS+ in 150 games, but he tallied 45 extra-base hits and an AL-leading 35 steals while also playing elite defense at shortstop (14 DRS, 5.2 UZR/150) en route to a 3.3-WAR season.
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Boston Red Sox: RHP John Schreiber
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The Boston Red Sox bullpen was an unmitigated disaster this season, finishing 26th in the majors with a 4.59 ERA while tallying 28 blown saves in 67 opportunities and dealing with a revolving door in the late innings.
Right-hander John Schreiber entered the season with a 5.97 ERA in 29 appearances, and he played just one game in the big leagues last year, but he pitched his way into the closer's role as the 2021 season wore on, finishing with a 2.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 with eight saves and 22 holds in 64 appearances.
The 28-year-old employed a more slider-heavy approach this season, throwing the pitch 37.7 percent of the time while generating a 43.1 percent whiff rate, and his fastball velocity also ticked up from 92.7 to 94.5 mph.
Chicago Cubs: RHP Adrian Sampson
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A fifth-round pick in the 2012 draft, Adrian Sampson has bounced around throughout his pro career, even spending the 2020 season pitching in the KBO before he finally carved out an everyday role on the Chicago Cubs starting staff this year.
The 31-year-old tossed 104.1 innings in 19 starts and two relief appearances, finishing with a 3.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 73-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Over his final seven starts, he posted a 1.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, including a run of five straight quality starts. With club control through the 2025 season, he has made a strong case to be part of the rotation going into the 2023 campaign.
Chicago White Sox: RHP Johnny Cueto
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An early injury to Lance Lynn created a need in the Chicago White Sox rotation, and veteran Johnny Cueto filled the void on a one-year, $4.2 million contract.
The 36-year-old wrapped an up-and-down six-year, $130 million deal with the San Francisco Giants in 2021 and found limited interest on the free-agent market last offseason, but he proved he still has plenty left in the tank with the South Siders.
In 24 starts and one relief appearance, he posted a 3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 158.1 innings. His 3.5 WAR was the sixth-highest total of his MLB career and was good for the third-highest mark on the White Sox roster behind only Dylan Cease (6.4) and José Abreu (4.2).
Cincinnati Reds: IF Brandon Drury
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After a busy offseason selling off a number of key pieces, the Cincinnati Reds scooped up several low-cost veterans on minor league deals in an effort to find some good under-the-radar value, and Brandon Drury turned out to be one of the best signings of the year.
The 30-year-old signed a one-year, $700,000 deal and played his way into a starting job with a strong first month. He went on to hit .274/.335/.520 with 22 doubles, 20 home runs and 59 RBI in 92 games with the Reds before he was sent to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline in exchange for high-ceiling prospect Victor Acosta.
All told, he finished with a 122 OPS+ and 28 home runs in 568 plate appearances, and that offensive outburst coupled with his defensive versatility should make him a hot commodity on the free-agent market this winter.
Cleveland Guardians: LF Steven Kwan
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There was no shortage of surprise breakout performances on the Cleveland Guardians roster this season, and while guys like Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor were top prospects during their time in the minors, the same can't be said of Steven Kwan.
The rookie standout was the No. 27 prospect in the Cleveland farm system at the start of the year, the first time he ever appeared in the organizational rankings, and he surprised more than a few people when he broke camp with the team's starting left field job.
With a contact-oriented approach, he hit .298/.373/.400 for a 124 OPS+ with 38 extra-base hits, 19 steals and more walks (62) than strikeouts (60) in 638 plate appearances. He also played an elite defensive left field (21 DRS, 8.4 UZR/150) en route to a 5.5-WAR rookie season.
Colorado Rockies: RHP Tyler Kinley
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Right-hander Tyler Kinley made a team-high 70 appearances out of the Colorado Rockies bullpen in 2021, finishing with a 4.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10 holds pitching in a middle relief role.
The 31-year-old started the season as well as any setup man in baseball, posting a 0.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 with 10 holds in 25 appearances before suffering an elbow strain in June that wound up requiring season-ending surgery.
Armed with the prototypical fastball-slider pairing, Kinley averaged 95.4 mph with his fastball and generated an impressive 47.0 percent whiff rate with his breaking ball. With club control through the 2024 season, he could be a key piece of the Colorado bullpen again in 2023 once he returns to the mound.
Detroit Tigers: RHP Alex Lange
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The Chicago Cubs selected Alex Lange with the No. 30 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and two years later, he was shipped to the Detroit Tigers in the deal that sent Nick Castellanos to the North Siders.
Lange made his MLB debut last season with a 4.04 ERA in 36 appearances out of the bullpen, and he was even better this year with a 3.69 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 while tallying 21 holds in a team-high 71 appearances.
His curveball (57.8 percent whiff rate) and changeup (56.0 percent whiff rate) both generated a ton of swings and misses, and his 44.1 percent whiff rate overall ranked second only to New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz.
Houston Astros: SS Jeremy Peña
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When Carlos Correa walked in free agency and no other outside addition was made to address the loss, there were some serious questions about what the shortstop position would look like for the Houston Astros this year.
But after Jeremy Peña took over, it wound up being a near push between the two players in terms of overall value:
Despite playing just 30 games above the High-A level prior to this season, Peña proved to be a worthy replacement for a player who departed and earned a $35.1 million salary in free agency.
Kansas City Royals: RHP José Cuas
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From working at FedEx in 2020 to pitching in the big leagues in 2022, José Cuas making his MLB debut on May 31 less than a month before his 28th birthday was one of the best stories of the season.
"It’s a dream come true, being a kid from New York, everything I’ve been through in my playing career, to be here in a Major League stadium with a chance to pitch—I can’t even say I dreamed about it,” Cuas told reporters. “It’s beyond my dreams."
The side-arming right-hander went on to post a 3.58 ERA with one save and 11 holds in 47 appearances, and his 93.1 mph sinker generated a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate. If he can keep it up, he'll give the Royals a solid low-cost, controllable reliever for the foreseeable future.
Los Angeles Angels: IF Luis Rengifo
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The Los Angeles Angels acquired Luis Rengifo in the deal that sent C.J. Cron to the Tampa Bay Rays prior to the 2018 season, and he turned in a breakout season in the upper levels of the minors that year, hitting .299/.399/.452 with 50 extra-base hits and 41 steals in 127 games.
He made his MLB debut the following year, but in scattered big league action, he hit just .216/.293/.325 for a 66 OPS+ in 702 plate appearances over the past three seasons.
The 25-year-old was little more than organizational depth when the season began, but injuries opened the door for him to get his first extended shot in the majors. He responded by posting a 103 OPS+ with 22 doubles, 17 home runs, 52 RBI and 2.4 WAR while starting double-digit games at second base, shortstop and third base.
Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Trayce Thompson
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With Mookie Betts on the injured list and the roster in need of some outfield depth, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Trayce Thompson from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for "cash considerations" on June 20.
The 31-year-old went on to secure a semi-regular role in the starting lineup even after Betts returned, hitting .268/.364/.537 for a 145 OPS+ with 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 39 RBI in 239 plate appearances.
He also struck out 86 times, and he was a non-factor against left-handed pitching with a .174 average and .621 OPS in 96 plate appearances, but who would have guessed that a scrapheap pickup would be able to carve out a good-sized role on the most stacked roster in baseball?
Miami Marlins: IF/OF Jon Berti
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Utility man Jon Berti has always had top-of-the-scale speed, and he showed solid base-stealing ability as a rookie in 2019 when he went 17-for-20 on stolen base attempts.
Still, you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who correctly picked him to be the MLB stolen base leader this season.
The 32-year-old played in a career-high 102 games for the Miami Marlins, hitting a respectable .240/.324/.338 in the process with 24 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but it was his 41 steals in 46 attempts that helped drive his value and making him a 2.5-WAR player in 2022.
Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Hoby Milner
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Lefty reliever Hoby Milner entered the 2022 season with a 4.77 ERA in 93 career appearances in the big leagues, including a 5.40 ERA in 19 appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers last year.
However, his 30-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21.2 innings last season was intriguing enough to warrant a longer look, and he won a spot in the Opening Day bullpen during spring training.
Serving as a third southpaw alongside Josh Hader and Brent Suter for much of the year, he posted a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 with 11 holds in 67 appearances, and with Hader gone and Taylor Rogers headed for free agency he could take on more of a high-leverage role in 2023.
Minnesota Twins: 2B/OF Nick Gordon
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The No. 5 overall pick all the way back in 2014, Nick Gordon was all but written off as a bust when the 2022 season rolled around. At best, he looked like a future utility player with some useful speed and defensive versatility.
Instead, the 26-year-old proved to be a late-bloomer offensively, and he spent much of September slotted in the No. 3 spot in the batting order.
All told, he finished with a 113 OPS+ while tallying 28 doubles, nine home runs, 50 RBI and 45 runs scored in 443 plate appearances. With the ability to play both middle infield position and all three outfield spots, he'll have no problem finding regular playing time going forward as long as he continues to hit.
New York Mets: IF Luis Guillorme
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A seldom-used utility infielder who had recorded just 368 plate appearances over the past four seasons heading into 2022, Luis Guillorme found his way into a semi-regular role this year and made the most of it.
The 28-year-old hit .414 with a .994 OPS in 66 plate appearances in May, closing the month with four straight multi-hit games.
His offensive production eventually leveled off, but he still hit a respectable .273 with a .351 on-base percentage and 15 extra-base hits in a career-high 335 plate appearances while splitting his time between second base and third base. On a roster filled with high-priced stars and exciting new faces, he quietly contributed 1.6 WAR in 102 games.
New York Yankees: DH Matt Carpenter
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Matt Carpenter hit .169 with a 63 OPS+ and minus-1.1 WAR in 249 plate appearances with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2021, and he failed to earn a spot on the Texas Rangers roster out of camp after signing a minor league deal during the offseason.
It looked like retirement was the next step when he was released by the Rangers on May 19.
Instead, he caught on with the New York Yankees and hit an absurd .305/.415/.727 with 15 home runs and 37 RBI in 154 plate appearances before a fractured left foot sidelined him from early August through the end of the regular season.
To put his .727 slugging percentage into context, it was the highest mark in baseball among all players with at least 20 plate appearances, ahead of Aaron Judge (.686), Mike Trout (.630) and Yordan Álvarez (.613).
Oakland Athletics: RHP Domingo Acevedo
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A top prospect in the New York Yankees system who peaked at No. 5 on their organizational rankings prior to the 2016 season, Domingo Acevedo never reached the majors in New York before walking as a minor league free agent after the 2019 campaign.
The 6'7" right-hander finally made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 10 games with the Oakland Athletics before he was designated for assignment and released at the end of July, but they brought him back on a minor league deal this year and it paid off in a big way.
The 28-year-old appeared in a team-high 70 games, posting a 3.33 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with four saves and 20 holds. He has the stuff to close games, even with a middle-of-the-road strikeout rate, and he could find himself in that role at some point in Oakland's revolving door bullpen.
Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Bailey Falter
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Bailey Falter never ranked higher than No. 22 on an organizational top prospect list, and his MLB debut in 2021 was a forgettable one with a 5.61 ERA in 33.2 innings working primarily in relief. A year later, though, he could find himself starting a game in the postseason if the Philadelphia Phillies continue to advance.
The 25-year-old finished with a 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 84 innings spanning 16 starts and four relief appearances, and while veterans Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson struggled down the stretch, he went 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his final nine starts.
Suddenly, he appears to be the leading candidate to serve as the team's fourth starter in October, provided they advance far enough to need one behind Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez.
Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP José Quintana
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Signed to a one-year, $2 million deal as part of Pittsburgh's annual bargain shopping, José Quintana was coming off an ugly 2021 season where he struggled to a 6.43 ERA in 63 innings with the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants.
The hope was he could chew through some innings to take pressure off the team's young arms, but he wound up exceeding expectations with a 3.50 ERA in 103 innings over his first 20 starts before he was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals at the deadline in exchange for a pair of promising young players in Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez.
He went on to pitch even better in St. Louis, logging a 2.01 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 12 starts before taking the ball in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. For the Pirates, it was a great buy-low flip to turn a $2 million investment into a pair of controllable pieces.
San Diego Padres: RHP Robert Suárez
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Born in Venezuela, Robert Suárez spent six seasons pitching professionally in Mexico and Japan before signing a two-year, $11 million deal with the San Diego Padres during the offseason.
In his final season with the Hanshin Tigers in 2021, he logged a 1.16 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a 58-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio while nailing down 42 saves as one of the most dominant relievers in Japan.
Despite those numbers, it's always tough to predict how a pitcher will adjust to the uptick in competition stateside. He handled the move in stride, recording a 2.27 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 with 11 holds in 45 appearances as one of the team's top setup relievers.
San Francisco Giants: RHP Jakob Junis
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After five seasons with the Kansas City Royals, right-hander Jakob Junis signed a one-year, $1.75 million deal with the San Francisco Giants during the offseason, and he began the season in the bullpen before shifting into the rotation at the beginning of May.
The slider specialist had a 3.32 ERA in his first seven starts before he was hit with a comebacker in the middle of June and missed nearly a month, but the Giants more than got their money's worth on a minimal investment.
The 30-year-old finished with a 4.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in 112 innings, and the slider specialist used his signature offering 50.4 percent of the time with 74 of his punchouts coming on that pitch. He comes with another year of arbitration control next season and could fill a back-of-the-rotation spot.
Seattle Mariners: RHP Penn Murfee
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A position player when he first arrived on campus at Vanderbilt, Penn Murfee moved to the mound during his junior season and then went in the 33rd round of the 2018 draft after spending his senior year at Santa Clara.
Despite being recently new to pitching, he moved quickly through the Seattle farm system and made his MLB debut on April 29, 2022.
The 6'2" right-hander went on to post a 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 with eight holds in 64 appearances, emerging as a key member of a Seattle bullpen that ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.33 ERA.
St. Louis Cardinals: DH Albert Pujols
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There are other potential choices here, including young contributors Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Juan Yepez, but it's hard to call anything more surprising than the fountain of youth that Albert Pujols found after the All-Star break.
After hitting just .215/.301/.376 in 173 plate appearances during the first half and nearly retiring in June, the future Hall of Famer kicked it into gear in July and never looked back as he eclipsed 700 career home runs.
The 42-year-old finished with a .323/.388/.715 line that included 18 home runs and 48 RBI in 56 games during the second half, and his hot streak coincided with the St. Louis Cardinals sprinting past the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central race.
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Jason Adam
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The Tampa Bay Rays front office does a tremendous job year in, year out piecing together a bullpen with scrapheap signings, under-the-radar trade pickups and homegrown talent.
Right-hander Jason Adam was one of the team's free-agency pickups last offseason, signing a one-year, $900,000 deal after struggling to a 5.91 ERA in 10.2 innings with the Chicago Cubs in 2021.
Leaning more heavily on his slider and changeup and less on his fastball, he finished with a 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 with eight saves and 22 holds in 67 appearances. His 2.6 WAR was among the highest totals by a reliever and tied him for sixth on the Tampa Bay roster.
Texas Rangers: LHP Martín Pérez
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Once a top prospect in the Texas Rangers farm system who made his MLB debut with the organization at the age of 21, left-hander Martín Pérez made his way back to the organization where it all started when he signed a one-year, $4 million deal during the offseason.
The 31-year-old put together the best season of his career, going 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 196.1 innings to earn his first All-Star selection.
That performance far outshined Jon Gray, who inked a four-year, $56 million contract as well last winter, and Pérez is now in prime position for a significant raise in free agency this offseason.
Toronto Blue Jays: C Alejandro Kirk
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Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk has always had an elite-level hit tool and strong on-base skills going back to his time in the minors, so his .285 batting average and .372 on-base percentage this season were not a huge surprise.
However, his 126 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 63 RBI represented an unexpected new level of power production, and he also posted terrific defensive metrics after questions earlier in his career about whether he could stick behind the plate.
The 23-year-old threw out 26 percent of base stealers and his nine defensive runs saved tied with Yadier Molina for sixth among catchers, despite splitting his time between catcher and designated hitter.
Washington Nationals: 1B/OF Joey Meneses
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It took the blockbuster trade of Juan Soto and Josh Bell, and the subsequent roster moves that were needed to fill out the MLB roster, for Joey Meneses to finally get his first MLB call-up at the age of 30.
After making his MLB debut on Aug. 2, he went on to hit .324/.367/.563 with 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 34 RBI in 240 plate appearances, tallying 1.2 WAR in 56 games split between first base and the corner outfield spots.
He should have a shot at an everyday job in 2023 as the Washington Nationals embark on a full-scale rebuild, and in a 107-loss season, he was one of the few bright spots over the final two months of the season.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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