Predicting If Every MLB Team Goes Over or Under Preseason Win Total Projection
With a little less than 10 percent of the 2022 MLB regular season still to come, how are those preseason win totals looking?
For more than half the 30 teams, either the over has already cashed or they have been so much worse than anticipated that even a 15-game winning streak to the finish line wouldn't be enough to reach their preseason over/under.
A handful of other teams are likely to clinch either the over or the under by the end of this week.
And seven teams are in between, seemingly destined to finish within half a win of the projections that were set six months ago.
We'll offer up predictions for the ones that are still too close to call while touching on how all 30 teams have fared compared to expectation.
Teams have separated into one of six categories: Already over, already under, very likely over, very likely under, leaning over and leaning under.
Teams That Have Already Hit the Over
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles (o/u: 62.5, current: 76)
I'm not sure what the MLB record is for earliest point in the season a winning ticket has cashed on an over bet, but Baltimore got there August 21 and will likely finish at least 20 games ahead of what was expected.
Perhaps most incredible is that the ace of Baltimore's staff, John Means, made just two appearances before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Had we known in the preseason that he would be gone by mid-April, the O's over/under probably would have dipped into the 50s.
Los Angeles Dodgers (o/u: 98.5, current: 102)
Houston Astros (o/u: 91.5, current: 97)
New York Mets (o/u: 88.5, current: 94)
St. Louis Cardinals (o/u: 84.5, current: 87)
Cleveland Guardians (o/u: 76.5, current: 80)
Save for the New York Yankees, all of the division leaders have already eclipsed their preseason win total. The only somewhat surprising one of the bunch is the Guardians, but the win totals for the non-White Sox portion of the Central were 74.5 (Kansas City), 76.5 (Cleveland), 78.5 (Detroit) and 81.5 (Minnesota).
It was almost inevitable that one of those teams would emerge from that projected mediocrity. Figuring out the right one was the tricky part. (He said with a sad Detroit over-78.5 ticket still on the ledger.)
Atlanta Braves (o/u: 91.5, current: 92)
It's unusual for the reigning World Series champion to exceed expectations this convincingly, especially after getting out to a brutal 23-27 start. Since the end of May, though, Atlanta has gone 68-28, which is tied with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball.
Whether it ends up winning the NL East or settling for the NL's No. 4 seed, this team is very much a threat to repeat as champs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (o/u: 67.5, current: 68)
Arizona was supposed to be the third-worst team in the majors, ahead of only Baltimore (62.5) and Pittsburgh (65.5). But the Diamondbacks jumped out to an impressive 18-15 start and have been a tough out all season.
Both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have had excellent seasons atop the starting rotation, and Christian Walker might still mess around and reach 40 home runs.
Teams That Have Already Clinched the Under
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox (o/u: 91.5, current: 76)
The White Sox still have a postseason pulse thanks to wins in 13 of their last 18 games. But getting to 92 wins officially went out the door this past weekend, somewhat fittingly in a loss to the now 91-loss Tigers.
San Francisco Giants (o/u: 86.5, current: 70)
The Giants started hot and led the NL West with a 14-7 record at the end of April. However, repeating last year's 107-win campaign quickly became a pipe dream. San Francisco is 12 games below .500 since the All-Star break.
Los Angeles Angels (o/u: 83.5, current: 64)
From 11 games over .500 in mid-May to 16 games under .500 by mid-July, the Angels had one of the most spectacular collapses in recent memory, completely wasting yet another statistically phenomenal season from both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.
Detroit Tigers (o/u: 78.5, current: 56)
File Detroit's season under, "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." At least Javier Báez is hitting well over the past month. Maybe that's a building block for 2023.
Miami Marlins (o/u: 77.5, current: 61)
Unfortunately, NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara can't pitch every day. And Miami has only gone 18-12 in his starts anyway. Don't expect to see manager Don Mattingly back in that dugout for an eighth season.
Cincinnati Reds (o/u: 74.5, current: 58)
If you just focus on the portion of the season after the atrocious 3-22 start and before the club sold players for parts at the Aug. 2 trade deadline, Cincinnati was a .500 baseball team for nearly three months. But that's not worth a hill of beans in over/unders.
Kansas City Royals (o/u: 74.5, current: 58)
The Royals had some impressive individual players, but gaining any sort of positive momentum as a team eluded them. Their longest winning streak of the season was just three games, and they did not sweep a single series.
Washington Nationals (o/u: 71.5, current: 51)
We knew they would be bad. We didn't realize they would be "worst record in baseball, trade Juan Soto even though he was still under team control for another 2.5 seasons" bad.
But at least they have been so bad that they've produced a great story in the form of 30-year-old rookie Joey Meneses batting .309 with nine home runs since making his MLB debut on the day of the trade deadline. He has 54 hits in Washington while Soto has 29 in San Diego.
Oakland Athletics (o/u: 68.5, current: 53)
Trading Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea in the four weeks leading up to the regular season was a clear sign that Oakland had no intention of making the playoffs this season. It's kind of remarkable that the A's don't have the worst record in the majors.
Teams Very Likely to Hit the Over
3 of 6
New York Yankees (o/u: 91.5, current: 88)
It's hard to believe after that 61-23 start that this one still hasn't cashed, but the Yankees will eventually get there. They only have one series left against a likely postseason team (at Toronto) and should get to 92 before the end of this weekend's four-game set against Boston.
It's really just a question of whether they get to 92 wins on the same day that Aaron Judge gets to 62 home runs.
Seattle Mariners (o/u: 83.5, current: 81)
Seattle could still be 10 wins away from hitting the over and I'd still feel confident it would get there. The Mariners wrap up the regular season with games against Texas, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland.
Getting to 84 wins won't be a problem, and the Mariners should even get into the 90s en route to their first playoff appearance since 2001.
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Teams Very Likely to Hit the Under
4 of 6
Boston Red Sox (o/u: 85.5, current: 71)
From May 13 through June 26, Boston went 31-11, rallying from a tough start to get to 42-31 overall.
At that time, over 85.5 looked like a sure thing. But a 29-44 record since then has buried the Red Sox and has them on pace for just their fifth losing season in the past quarter century. Alex Cora led them to the 2018 World Series crown, but he might get fired for this disaster.
Chicago Cubs (o/u: 75.5, current: 62)
The Cubs had both a 10-game losing streak in June and a nine-game losing streak in July, falling hopelessly out of the postseason picture before the All-Star break.
They have actually played above .500 baseball since then, though, and their 10-9 record against Milwaukee might be what keeps the Brewers out of the playoffs. That's still not nearly enough to hit this preseason over.
Texas Rangers (o/u: 74.5, current: 63)
Texas looked good to get to 75 wins a few weeks ago when it was 58-67. But after the team lost 16 of the last 21 games—with 10 games to come against Cleveland, Seattle and the New York Yankees, no less—there's just no way the Rangers will get there.
It's a good thing their offseason spending spree wasn't a "2022 or bust" mission, because this ended up being a rough start to the rebuild.
Pittsburgh Pirates (o/u: 65.5, current: 55)
Two months into the season, the Pirates were kind of respectable at 24-28. Had they kept that up for another four months, they would have gotten to 75 wins. But they had a minus-75 run differential at the time, and that has gotten worse as they have gone a woeful 31-64 since June 5.
Rookie shortstop Oneil Cruz is fun to watch, though, so there's that.
Up in the Air but Leaning Over
5 of 6
Colorado Rockies (o/u: 68.5, current: 64)
The Rockies have won seven of their last 11 games and only need five more wins to reach the over. However, all of their remaining games are against either the Giants, Padres or Dodgers, including six straight in Los Angeles to close out the regular season.
To this point, though, they have gone 19-23 against those three teams, so a 5-10 finish is possible.
Minnesota Twins (o/u: 81.5, current: 73)
From April 26 through September 9, the Twins maintained a winning record, thus looking good for at least 82 victories. But a 6-13 record dating back to August 31 has left them teetering toward the wrong side of a .500 season.
It's a favorable remaining schedule, though, with no games left against projected playoff teams. There are six against the White Sox, but as long as the Twins don't go 0-6 in those games, I still like their chances.
Philadelphia Phillies (o/u: 86.5, current: 80)
The Phillies should eclipse 87 wins and probably earn a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2011, but losing four straight in Miami and Atlanta has left the door open for a possible under.
The nine remaining games against Toronto, Atlanta and Houston will be tough, but the seven left against the Cubs and Nationals ought to get them across the finish line.
Tampa Bay Rays (o/u: 89.5, current: 82)
Per Tankathon, Tampa Bay entered play Monday with the toughest remaining schedule: six against Houston, four at home against Toronto and three each at Cleveland and at Boston.
Going .500 in that 16-game stretch would get the Rays to 90 wins and the over, but it's very likely to be a photo finish. (And if they don't get to 90 wins, reaching the postseason might also be a photo finish.)
Up in the Air but Leaning Under
6 of 6
Milwaukee Brewers (o/u: 89.5, current: 78)
A 12-3 finish is a mighty tough ask, and it's what it would take for Milwaukee to reach the over. But if you had to win 12 games in a hurry, getting 11 of them against the Reds, Marlins and Diamondbacks is a good way to do it. The Brewers will probably fall a couple of wins shy of 89.5, though, and may well miss the postseason because of it.
San Diego Padres (o/u: 89.5, current: 81)
If you could tell me there will be only one over/under that comes down to the final day of the regular season, San Diego would be my guess.
To get to the over, the Padres need to go 9-6 down the stretch with three games each against the Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers, White Sox and Giants. Save for the series against the Rockies, they're all at home, so maybe they get the job done. But I think they finish at 89-73—just good enough for a playoff spot; not quite good enough for the over.
Toronto Blue Jays (o/u: 92.5, current: 83)
Toronto has won each of its last six series and gone 15-6 in those games, so asking for a 10-5 finish isn't out of line. But we're talking about nine road games against Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, plus six home games against the Yankees and Red Sox.
Getting to 90 wins should be no problem, and if the line were 91.5, I'd maybe lean over. As is, the under looks like the winning ticket.
Records current through the start of play Tuesday.
Preseason win totals courtesy of Vegas Insider.
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