Ranking MLB's Top 10 AL and NL MVP Candidates with 1 Month to Go
With one month to go in the 2022 MLB season, the American League and National League MVP races are starting to heat up.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the clear front-runners in the AL, while Paul Goldschmidt is trying to hold off Mookie Betts and teammate Nolan Arenado in the NL.
That said, a lot can change over the final weeks of the regular season.
In an effort to mirror the 10-player ballots that will be submitted by Baseball Writers' Association of America voters, we ranked our top 10 AL and NL candidates based on individual production and each player's role in their team's success.
Enjoy!
AL MVP Candidate Nos. 10-6
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10. 2B Andrés Giménez, Cleveland Guardians
Stats: 145 OPS+, 40 XBH (15 HR), 60 RBI, 52 R, 16 SB, 5.9 WAR
If baseball had a Most Improved Player Award like the NBA, Giménez would be the front-runner. The 24-year-old hit .218 with a 74 OPS+ in 210 plate appearances last season, but his 5.9 WAR this season ranks seventh overall.
9. CF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
Stats: 133 OPS+, 47 XBH (23 HR), 67 RBI, 73 R, 24 SB, 4.7 WAR
Sometimes, a dynamic young player comes along and changes the culture of a team. Buster Posey did it with the San Francisco Giants in 2010. Kris Bryant did it with the Chicago Cubs in 2015. Now, Rodríguez is doing it for a team that hasn't reached the postseason in more than two decades. He's one of just 13 rookies in MLB history with a 20-20 season, and his 4.7 WAR leads the Mariners, who are poised to snag a wild-card berth.
8. SP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Stats: 24 GS, 16-3, 1.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 26 BB, 154 K, 152.0 IP, 4.6 WAR
After pitching just six innings in 2020 and 2021 because of Tommy John surgery, Verlander was an unknown quantity entering the season. The 39-year-old has responded with one of the best campaigns of his Hall of Fame career, leading the majors in ERA (1.84) and WHIP (0.86) while anchoring a young rotation.
7. SS Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Stats: 136 OPS+, 49 XBH (12 HR), 63 RBI, 77 R, 8 SB, 5.3 WAR
Bogaerts (.315) leads the AL batting title race by a narrow margin over Luis Arraez (.314) and José Abreu (.309) and has gone 11-for-24 in six games in September. The 29-year-old could be playing his final games in a Red Sox uniform with an opt-out looming this offseason. He would rank a few slots higher if Boston were still in the playoff race.
6. 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Stats: 156 OPS+, 57 XBH (24 HR), 52 RBI, 80 R, 15 SB, 4.3 WAR
After a down year in 2021 by his standards, Altuve has rebounded with his highest OPS+ since his AL MVP season in 2017. His .902 OPS trails only Aaron Judge's 1.085 and teammate Yordan Alvarez's .982, and he has double-digit steals for the first time since 2018.
Others Receiving Consideration: 1B Luis Arraez (MIN), 3B Rafael Devers (BOS), 3B Yandy Díaz (TB), 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), CF Mike Trout (LAA), RF Kyle Tucker (HOU)
No. 5 AL MVP Candidate: 1B José Abreu, Chicago White Sox
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Very little has gone according to plan for the Chicago White Sox this season, but veteran slugger José Abreu remains a constant in the middle of the lineup.
The 35-year-old leads the AL with 159 hits and is batting .309/.384/.453 for a 136 OPS+ with 32 doubles, 14 home runs and 63 RBI while playing in 134 of 136 games.
With Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez and Tim Anderson having missed time to injuries and Yasmani Grandal and Yoán Moncada underperforming, Abreu has shouldered the load for much of the year, and the White Sox are still within striking distance in the AL Central.
Abreu is in the final season of a three-year, $50 million contract.
No. 4 AL MVP Candidate: DH/LF Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
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The stacked Astros roster might work against Yordan Alvarez in AL MVP voting since Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve and perhaps even Kyle Tucker could also garner support.
Fair or not, the fact that he is not the clear-cut best player on his own team hurts him in the running for an award for the best player in the league.
That said, the 25-year-old should have no trouble securing a top-five finish in balloting thanks to a stellar .292/.395/.587 line that includes 31 home runs and a 178 OPS+ that trails only Aaron Judge's 204 and Paul Goldschmidt's 193.
That six-year, $115 million extension he signed in June looks like a brilliant move by the Houston front office.
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No. 3 AL MVP Candidate: 3B José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
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Guardians star José Ramírez has finished in the top six in AL MVP voting four times in the past five years, including a runner-up finish in 2020 when he went on a tear down the stretch.
The 29-year-old has been his usual productive self this year, posting a 151 OPS+ with 39 doubles, 26 home runs, 108 RBI and 74 runs. His 264 total bases rank second in the AL behind Aaron Judge's 330, and his 5.1 WAR makes him a top-10 player in the AL for the fifth time in six years.
The biggest question is how many votes teammate Andrés Giménez will siphon off. Each can make a compelling case for being the best player on the roster, and the outcome of the AL Central race could also be a factor.
Big picture: Third in the voting is the ceiling for any AL player not named Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani.
No. 2 AL MVP Candidate: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
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Am I already taking Shohei Ohtani for granted?
The two-way superstar will likely fall short of the 157 OPS+ and 46 home runs he produced last season, but he has taken his game to another level on the mound this year. That said, he hasn't been a slouch in the batter's box with a 149 OPS+, 59 extra-base hits and 3.2 WAR as a designated hitter.
He has also already tossed a career-high 136 innings and ranks fifth in the AL in ERA (2.58), sixth in WHIP (1.04), fifth in strikeouts (181) and seventh in opponents' batting average (.213).
Ohtani is hands down the most complete all-around player in the sport's history, and with another 4.7 WAR as a pitcher, his 7.9 WAR total is just behind the MLB-leading 8.4 WAR that Aaron Judge has posted.
No. 1 AL MVP Candidate: CF/RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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Despite the impressive two-way performance of Shohei Ohtani, slugger Aaron Judge is still baseball's WAR leader with a career-high 8.4 mark in 131 games.
The New York Yankees star leads the AL in on-base percentage (.403), slugging percentage (.682), OPS+ (204), home runs (54), RBI (117), walks (80) and runs (109), and his .302 batting average is not far behind leader Xander Bogaerts' .315.
Judge is on pace for 65 home runs. With eight long balls in his last 13 games, he is as locked in at the plate as he has been this season. Aside from his stellar offensive numbers, Judge has also done a terrific job defensively while playing a career-high 68 games in center field.
Ohtani might be doing things we've never seen before, but Judge is having an all-time great season in his own right—and he's doing it as the driving force on a contending team.
NL MVP Candidate Nos. 10-6
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10. SS Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Stats: 115 OPS+, 48 XBH (17 HR), 79 RBI, 88 R, 17 SB, 4.9 WAR
With a .260/.311/.353 line since the All-Star break, Swanson has cooled off considerably after a terrific first half (.294/.353/.481), but he is still enjoying the best season of his career and putting up some of the best all-around numbers of any shortstop. His 4.9 WAR trails only Xander Bogaerts' 5.3 at the position, and he has boosted his stock as much as any upcoming free agent.
9. RP Edwin Díaz, New York Mets
Stats: 53 G, 29/32 SV, 1.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 17.0 K/9, 2.7 WAR
There is a real case to be made that Díaz is the most important player on the Mets roster, and there is also precedent for a reliever to get more love in MVP voting than they do in Cy Young Award voting. The 28-year-old has struck out 101 of the 206 batters he has faced.
8. SS Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stats: 126 OPS+, 55 XBH (19 HR), 90 RBI, 84 R, 23 SB, 4.3 WAR
Turner has spent the season shuffling among the top three spots in the lineup, and he's just one home run from his second straight season with a .300 average, 20 home runs and 20 steals. The 29-year-old has also played all but one game.
7. 1B Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Stats: 138 OPS+, 55 XBH (32 HR), 106 RBI, 74 R, 3 SB, 3.0 WAR
Alonso has been trending downward in these rankings since the All-Star break and is hitting just .180/.255/.303 with three home runs in his last 24 games. That said, he still ranks among the NL leaders in OPS+ (eighth), home runs (tied for fifth) and RBI (second). His middle-of-the-order production has been integral to the Mets' success.
6. 3B Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Stats: 151 OPS+, 73 XBH (35 HR), 89 RBI, 80 R, 2 SB, 5.8 WAR
After a breakout 2021, Riley has proved he belongs in the conversation about the game's top young sluggers, leading the NL with 73 extra-base hits. He also ranks fourth in OPS+ and second in home runs, and his contributions in the middle of the lineup have been even more important with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies having missed significant time.
Others Receiving Consideration: SP Sandy Alcantara (MIA), 2B/SS Tommy Edman (STL), SS Francisco Lindor (NYM), 2B Jeff McNeil (NYM), C J.T. Realmuto (PHI), RF Juan Soto (SD)
No. 5 NL MVP Candidate: 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The first season of the six-year, $162 million deal Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers has gone as well as anyone could have hoped.
The 32-year-old is hitting .323/.394/.510 with 17 home runs and 84 RBI, and he leads the majors in hits (171) and doubles (44). He has posted an 88-to-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 601 plate appearances as well.
His 5.0 WAR trails only Paul Goldschmidt's 7.3 among first basemen, and it has already eclipsed the 4.7 WAR he tallied in 159 games during his final season with Atlanta last year.
The only reason he does not rank a spot or two higher is because he's not even the best MVP candidate on his own team.
No. 4 NL MVP Candidate: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
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With Fernando Tatis Jr. suspended and Jake Cronenworth, Wil Myers and Trent Grisham taking a step backward offensively, Manny Machado has been the guy for the San Diego Padres this year.
His 159 OPS+ stands as his best mark outside of the COVID-19 pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, and he's hitting .300/.367/.534 with 34 doubles, 26 home runs, 88 RBI and 85 runs.
Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the players who have been tasked with protecting him in the lineup, including Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer, Luke Voit, Nomar Mazara, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell.
Machado is also hitting .325/.407/.608 with runners in scoring position, and his batted-ball data has been some of the best in baseball. It's hard to imagine where the Padres would be without his contributions.
No. 3 NL MVP Candidate: 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
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Not since 2000 with the Giants' Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds have teammates finished 1-2 in MVP voting. That's a nugget worth tucking away as Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt continue to rake for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Arenado is third in our NL MVP rankings, but his numbers are worthy of serious consideration. He's hitting .301/.364/.555 for a 161 OPS+ with 36 doubles, 28 home runs and 89 RBI in 126 games.
That OPS+ marks a career high by nearly 30 points, and his 7.3 WAR has already matched a career high. He is also playing his usual Gold Glove defense at third base (18 DRS, 12.3 UZR/150) as he looks to take home the hardware for the 10th year in a row.
As was the case with Freddie Freeman, the biggest knock on Arenado's MVP argument is that he's not the best candidate on his own team.
No. 2 NL MVP Candidate: RF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
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With a .330/.383/.697 line in August that included 21 extra-base hits in 120 plate appearances, Dodgers star Mookie Betts made a strong push in the NL MVP race.
The 2018 AL MVP has a 147 OPS+ with 32 doubles, 33 home runs and an NL-leading 105 runs, and his 6.1 WAR trails only Paul Goldschmidt's 7.3, Nolan Arenado's 7.3 and Sandy Alcantara's 6.5 in the NL.
To put it simply, he is the best MVP candidate on the best team in baseball.
If Betts can continue his strong recent play and win the NL MVP Award, he would become just the second player to top each league, joining Hall of Famer Frank Robinson.
No. 1 NL MVP Candidate: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
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The runner-up in NL MVP voting in 2013 and 2015 during his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt is poised to finally take home the hardware with a phenomenal 2022 season.
The 34-year-old has a legitimate shot to win the Triple Crown. He leads the NL in batting average (.329) and RBI (107), and his 34 home runs put him just two behind Kyle Schwarber and one behind Austin Riley on the NL leaderboard.
Goldschmidt is also the NL leader in on-base percentage (.416), slugging percentage (.612), OPS+ (193) and total bases (296), and his 7.3 WAR is tied with teammate Nolan Arenado for the top mark.
With a .343/.448/.667 line that included nine home runs and 27 RBI in August, Goldschmidt showed no signs of slowing down. The award is his to lose.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday.
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