2022 WNBA Semifinals Preview and Predictions: Seven No. 1 Picks and a Rematch
The stage is set for the 2022 WNBA semifinals. While there weren't any jaw-dropping upsets from lower-seeded teams in the first round, that doesn't mean the four teams remaining don't come with intrigue.
Starting out west, the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces will face off in a series that includes seven No. 1 overall draft picks. For the Storm, four of their typical starting five are No. 1s (Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, Tina Charles and Sue Bird). For Vegas, three members of the starting lineup were drafted first overall (A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young).
Never before in WNBA or NBA history has a series contained this much top-end level talent.
On the opposite side of the country, the defending champion Chicago Sky take on the Connecticut Sun for the second year in a row in the semis. Connecticut, in its fourth straight WNBA semifinals, looks to end a six-game losing streak against the Sky that dates back to last postseason.
It will take a lot for the No. 3 Sun to upset the No. 2 Sky. As I noted in my Top 25 Player Rankings prior to the playoffs, the Sun have struggled being as efficient offensively with both reigning MVP Jonquel Jones and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Alyssa Thomas sharing the floor.
The Athletic's Mike Prada has provided an explanation as to why.
Who wins the battle of the MVPs out west? And do the Sun shock the world and make it back to the Finals for the first time since 2019? Let's find out.
No. 1 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 4 Seattle Storm
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Key Matchup: The battle of the MVP front-runners
A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart are the two best players in the WNBA and have been in a neck-and-neck MVP race all season. Both can get a bucket when their teams are in need but also act as defensive anchors who can quarterback and dictate how the Aces and Storm defend.
What this series will come down to is which superstar outplays the other, and when times are adverse, how each individual leads and gets their teammates involved.
Also, who will defend the other best on switches? The expectation is that Stewart and Wilson will be guarded initially by less mobile post players in Kiah Stokes and Tina Charles, but I'd be shocked not to see possessions down the stretch of games with these two guarding each other one-on-one.
X-Factors: Gabby Williams and Chelsea Gray
While the marque matchup is Stewart and Wilson, it is the functionality of both Gabby Williams and Chelsea Gray that could allow their teams an edge if Wilson and Stewart cancel each other out. Gray has been creating and making shots at a high level this postseason. In the two games against the Mercury, Gray averaged 22 points on 75 percent shooting from the field along with six assists and 3.5 rebounds. When Wilson's shots weren't falling in Game 1 against Phoenix, Gray took matters into her own hands.
Williams is the force behind the Storm's transition offense and defense. In the regular season and in the first two games of the postseason, she made plays on both ends, averaging 1.5 steals and around three assists.
The concern here is we don't know if Williams will be available for Sunday's Game 1. She left last Sunday's Game 2 against the Mystics in the third quarter with a concussion. While the Storm will have around a week in between games for preparation, concussions are tricky and player safety and welfare should come first.
The Big Question: How does Seattle guard the Aces' shot creation?
If Williams is available, Seattle should put her on Kelsey Plum from the jump. But if she's not, the Storm will have some decisions to make. What makes the Aces so difficult to guard is their abundance of perimeter shot creators in Plum, Gray and Jackie Young, who all force defenses to pay close attention. Gone are the days of putting the less defensively apt Sue Bird on the then-meeker Young, who is now a front-runner for Most Improved Player. If Williams isn't available for the start of the series, expect to see more minutes for Stephanie Talbot and seven-time All-Defensive selection Briann January.
No. 2 Chicago Sky vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
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Key Matchup: May the best point forward win
Both teams work through the paint. The Sun are headlined by their stacked frontcourt in Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones and DeWanna Bonner. And the Sky operate best when their athletic guards and wings in Courtney Vandersloot, Kahleah Copper and Rebekah Gardner can drive and put pressure on the rim.
Another similarity between the two is they are both run by point forwards in Thomas and generational talent Candace Parker. Thomas is known by her team as "the engine" and by others as a "human cannonball." Her game is predicated by how well she can push the pace in transition and playmake while forcing the ball into the paint. She has established herself guarding both post and perimeter players, especially with the absence of point guard Jasmine Thomas.
Parker's playmaking, however, is a bit more tactical. Whether she's finding the wide-open teammate on the weak side or creating havoc by hard hedging and trapping, her creativity and commitment on both ends have been vital since she joined the Sky in 2021. When she doesn't play well, neither does Chicago. Which point forward will anchor their team best?
X-Factors: DeWanna Bonner and Kahleah Copper
The reason the Sun were able to come out with the victory on Wednesday night against the Wings was Bonner's 21-point, five-assist, five-rebound performance in the 73-58 victory. In the first half when the Sun were missing shots in the paint and failing to score in transition, Bonner was the team's leading scorer with 11.
Against the Sky this season, Bonner has averaged 16.8 points per game on 49.1 percent shooting and 3.8 assists. Those numbers are considerably better than her overall regular-season averages (13.5 PPG, 43.9 FG%, 2.8 APG).
Most likely the Sky will look to contain the two Joneses and Thomas. Bonner will have more space to operate.
Copper is vital to everything the Sky do both defensively and offensively. Her athleticism will be key in how the Sky primarily score and draw the defense, as will her ability to be everywhere defensively on switches and on help.
The Big Question: Do the Sun have an answer in the clutch?
I've called the Sky the kryptonite of the Sun. Both teams play through the paint, but the Sky have the upper hand because of their long, versatile post players. Since Parker, Emma Meesseman and Azurá Stevens can step out and hit shots from beyond the arc, that forces the Sun bigs to make a choice. Do they prevent the Sky's slashers in Copper, Vandersloot and Gardner, or do they allow open looks and weaker closeouts on Parker, Meesseman and Stevens?
During the four games played in regular season, the Sky averaged 41.9 percent shooting from three on 7.8 makes. But in these teams' final two matchups during the last couple of weeks of the regular season, Connecticut lost by three points in each game because of clutch playmaking from the Sky. In 2021's semifinal series between these two teams, the Sun also struggled to have their MVP in Jonquel Jones or MIP in Brionna Jones produce in clutch situations. Sun head coach and GM Curt Miller brought in Courtney Williams this past offseason to provide some shot creation and clutch play on offense. So far during this postseason she's underwhelmed, shooting 30.8 percent from the field in three games.
Aces vs. Storm Prediction
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This series will go all the way, and I will be shocked and disappointed if it doesn't.
Both teams are incredibly hungry to advance to the Finals for two different reasons. For Seattle, it's about giving Sue Bird the most storybook ending she could ask for: one final championship. For the Aces, after falling to the Phoenix Mercury in five games in last year's semis, they want to begin a dynasty right now and see no better time to do so in head coach Becky Hammon's first season.
These teams are also led by two of the sharpest playmakers and point guards in Chelsea Gray and Bird, and they are anchored by the most versatile and dominant frontcourt players in A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart.
What this series comes down to is which team exposes its opponent's weaknesses best. Will the Aces' explosive guards be too much for an older Storm backcourt to defend? Or will the Storm send the Aces' posts into foul trouble, forcing Hammon to go into her less potent and experienced bench?
Also, how long will Las Vegas be without Dearica Hamby? It's been around two weeks since it was reported she'd be out 2-4 weeks with a right knee bone contusion. While Hamby hasn't had the scoring production she's had in years past, she allows Wilson to switch to play the 5, something that she can't do with Kiah Stokes on the floor.
Prediction: Storm advance in five games
Sky vs. Sun Prediction
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Before I examined all of the matchups between the Sky and Sun from earlier this season, I was convinced that the defending champions would sweep and continue their six-game winning streak against Connecticut. The Sky defeated the Sun in all four regular-season games followed by two straight playoff games in last year's semis.
While I believe Chicago will continue on as Connecticut's Kryptonite, I also believe the Sun will steal one of the first two on the road, especially with some days of rest in between now and Game 1 on Sunday.
Against the Sun this season, the Sky averaged 18.3 turnovers. Connecticut will force the issue and rattle Chicago for a game, but similarly to what occurred against New York in the first round, the Sky will snap back into shape and continue to win with their overpowering depth and defense.
Expect Emma Meesseman to have a breakthrough series after averaging a quiet 8.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists in Round 1. With a less imposing opposing perimeter defense in Connecticut, Meesseman should find cutters with more ease on the run to the basket.
Expect to see more three-point shooting from Chicago as well.
Prediction: Sky advance in four games
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