Fantasy Football 2022: Cheatsheet for Sleepers and Busts Heading into Your Draft

The AFC South might be the worst division in the NFL on paper, but that won't stop fantasy football players from mining for sleeper gold there.

The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, specifically, aren't getting much hype heading into the 2022 NFL season, likely because they were both disappointing in 2021.

However, there are reasons for promise around both franchises and the skill-position players that quarterbacks Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence have to work with.

Jacksonville made some sneaky free-agent acquisitions in the offseason and certain players could thrive in Doug Pederson's offensive system because of what he achieved with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Houston starts with a clean slate under Lovie Smith and could have a breakout sleeper player at wide receiver if the offense takes a step up from where it was last season.

The promise of a new fantasy football season may not excite observers of the NFC East, especially those who have spent multiple hours looking at the running backs in that division.

Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley all come with their respective flaws and are all prime candidates to disappoint fantasy players and their NFL squads in 2022.

Sleeper: Nico Collins, WR, Houston

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HOUSTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 26: Nico Collins #12 of the Houston Texans celebrates with Pharaoh Brown #85 after catch a pass for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at NRG Stadium on December 26, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Davis Mills can't throw the ball to Brandin Cooks on every passing play.

The Houston Texans quarterback could do that, but the aerial attack would become very predictable. Plus why would he do that with Nico Collins waiting to breakout as a star No. 2 wide receiver?

Collins showed some promise in the second half of last season with 15 receptions, one touchdown catch and two games with 65 receiving yards in the final five games.

Of course, that's a small sample size, but the 23-year-old did get better as his rookie season went on, which is a good sign for how he may progress through training camp.

The Houston offense can't be as bad as it was in 2021. There should be more structure within the entire franchise with Lovie Smith taking over as head coach.

If the Texans are even 25 percent more competent on offense, Collins should get more looks from Mills when the quarterback is not searching in Cooks' direction.

Cooks is still the only fantasy football star on the Houston roster, but Collins has the potential to become a notable name by the middle of the season because the targets will be there for him.

Collins is still only worth a late-round fantasy draft pick because this is still the Texans we are talking about. They will not be an offensive juggernaut, but he could give your fantasy team a good amount of receptions and a few touchdowns that could make him a solid No. 3 wide receiver in points-per-reception and standard leagues.

Sleeper: Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 12: Evan Engram #17 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrates his touchdown against the Cleveland Browns during a football game at TIAA Bank Field on August 12, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

I know what you are about to say about Evan Engram and it's already been taken into account before considering him as a fantasy football sleeper.

The 27-year-old has been drafted on fantasy football potential for most of his career, but he was a disappointment with the New York Giants. He either lacked production or could not stay healthy.

There are a lot of past scars fantasy football players have from rostering Engram in multiple seasons, but 2022 might be different for the sixth-year player.

A change of scenery would do anyone good, but the move to Jacksonville, Florida could pay off tenfold for Engram to cash in on his potential.

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson utilized tight ends a lot when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles. Zach Ertz developed in one of the best tight ends in the league, and the coach helped with Dallas Goedert's transition to the NFL before he was let go.

In Philadelphia's Super Bowl-winning season, Ertz was the team's leading receiver and one off the team lead in touchdowns. He was the Eagles' lone 1,000-yard receiver in 2018. He and Goedert were one-two in receiving yards and touchdown catches on the Philadelphia roster in 2019.

When healthy, Engram is the best tight end on the Jacksonville roster and could be a vital asset for Trevor Lawrence to work with as the quarterback looks to gain confidence in the pocket in the new system early in the season.

There is still risk attached to Engram because he has one 600-yard season and 10 touchdowns over the last four seasons. Those numbers are why he will be drafted late and potentially as a second tight end. He could be a No. 1 if you avoid drafting at the position until late.

Engram will not turn into 2018 Zach Ertz in Jacksonville, but he is in an ideal position to succeed with a young quarterback and a new head coach in a setting away from New York. That might be just what he needs to deliver on the potential we thought he had after his 722-yard, six-touchdown rookie campaign in 2017.

Busts: NFC East Running Backs

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 12: Miles Sanders #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs with the ball against the New York Jets during the preseason game at Lincoln Financial Field on August 12, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Jets defeated the Eagles 24-21. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

The question marks surrounding the NFC East running backs are listed in bold, underline and 52 size font.

Miles Sanders is allergic to the end zone, Antonio Gibson can't stop fumbling, Ezekiel Elliott is one year older and potentially has a better back behind him and Saquon Barkley is an injury risk.

Each of the four running back situations in the NFC East has the potential to get ugly at points of the 2022 season.

Elliott is the most reliable running back by default, and his 2021 numbers suggest it may be unfair to group him with the other three running backs.

However, Elliott is one year older and he has Tony Pollard pushing for more snaps behind him in the Dallas offense.

Elliott finished with a 1,002-719 edge in rushing yardage and a 10-2 edge in rushing touchdowns over Pollard last season, Pollard averaged 1.3 yards more per attempt and earned 50 more receiving yards.

Pollard could cut into Elliott's production more in 2022, which is why Elliott may be a bust relative to his fantasy draft position. If Elliott is a first-or-second-round draft pick, he may not score as many points as the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon. That could leave you on the wrong end of the RB1 points standings by the end of the season.

Sanders, Gibson and Barkley enter the season with more red flags and might be avoided in fantasy drafts for an abundance of reasons.

Sanders did not find the end zone in 12 games last season. He also recorded the lowest rushing-yard total of his three-year career. The competition for touchdowns increased inside the Philadelphia offense with the arrival of A.J. Brown. The Eagles could be more inclined to target Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert more in the red zone because they are reliable scoring threats.

The development of Kenneth Gainwell as a potential 1B running back option could also hurt Sanders' fantasy production. At the moment, he is nowhere close to being a RB1 in fantasy.

Gibson fumbled in Washington's first preseason game on Saturday and he was outperformed by rookie Brian Robinson. That is just one preseason contest, but it could be an indicator of where the Washington running back situation goes this season.

Gibson still has some value in PPR leagues because he caught 78 passes in his first two seasons, but it is a stretch to call him a reliable fantasy producer at the moment.

Then there is Barkley, who could be the biggest bust of the first-round running backs chosen in fantasy football. Simply put, there are better top-tier options than Barkley in fantasy drafts because of his injury history.

Do not draft Barkley thinking he will immediately turn back into the back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher from 2018 and 2019. It could take him some time to get going inside the Giants new offense under head coach Brian Daboll. Defenses could hone in more on Barkley if Daniel Jones struggles once again at quarterback.

Barkley comes with too many questions marks, whether it be injury or team related, to be compared to the top fantasy running backs at the moment. We might be talking about a different situation if he was not a first-round pick in 12-team leagues. A first-round pick, or RB1, needs to perform every week and that is not guaranteed yet with Barkley.