1 Regret Every MLB Team Has from the 2021-22 Offseason
How much different might the 2022 MLB season look right now if the reigning World Series champion Atlanta Braves had chosen the correct outfielder to re-sign, if the Seattle Mariners had held on to Tyler Anderson, if the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels had done a better job retooling their bullpens, or if the Chicago White Sox had done anything good at all?
As they say, hindsight is always 20/20. And before we start fully looking forward to what teams could do at the trade deadline, we wanted to take a look back at things they should have done during the offseason.
Both actions and inactions are on the table for consideration. Some teams regret signing a particular free agent. Others deeply regret letting someone leave as a free agent, or failing to work out a long-term contract extension for one of the most talented hitters in baseball.
With one exception that we'll get to in the AL West, every team has at least one big regret about something it either did or did not do during the offseason.
Teams will be addressed in alphabetical order within their division, beginning with the AL East.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Signing Jordan Lyles
Jordan Lyles allowed more home runs (38) than any other pitcher in 2021. He also allowed the most earned runs (45) in the majors in 2020. But the low-budget Orioles looked at those stats and decided, yep, we want to give that guy $6 million in 2022, plus an $11 million team option (or a $1 million buyout) for 2023.
And things are going about as well as you'd expect. As of Wednesday morning (the day after his most recent start), Lyles was "leading" the AL with 86 hits and 41 earned runs allowed. Hard to believe they couldn't find a less expensive innings eater.
Boston Red Sox: Declining Martin Perez's $6M Team Option
From 2014-21, Martin Perez finished eight consecutive seasons with an ERA of 4.38 or worse. As far as FanGraphs is concerned, he provided the Red Sox a combined total of 1.0 win above replacement over the previous two years. And rather than exercise the $6 million option for another year of his services, they went the replacement route. As we'll get to shortly, that replacement (Michael Wacha) has been solid.
So, in a way, Boston has no regrets here, because the team probably wouldn't have signed Wacha if it had stuck with Perez. But on a one-year, $4 million deal with the Rangers, Perez had an MLB-best 1.42 ERA through the end of May, including a quality start in a win over Boston.
New York Yankees: Failing to Extend Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge reportedly turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million offer from the Yankees this offseason. The deal would have given him an average salary ($30.5M) slightly north of Mookie Betts ($30.4M), but it would have left him behind the likes of Francisco Lindor ($34.1M), Nolan Arenado ($32.5M) and Corey Seager ($32.5M).
He decided to use 2022 to prove that he's worth more than those infielders, and he has succeeded with what currently projects as a 65-homer campaign. At this point, a seven-year extension on Judge would probably cost the Yankees around $275 million.
Tampa Bay Rays: Letting Michael Wacha Go to Boston
Not re-signing Michael Wacha was an entirely defensible decision. He had a 5.11 ERA over the previous three seasons, and he ended up signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $7 million deal. It's the type of risk that Boston's deep pockets can afford to take and one that the small-market Rays couldn't very well justify.
But he now has a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts with Boston, won his only start thus far against Tampa Bay and might be one of the reasons the Red Sox ultimately finish ahead of the Rays.
Toronto Blue Jays: Signing Yusei Kikuchi
Seattle declined its four-year, $66 million team option on Yusei Kikuchi, and then Toronto put together a three-year, $36 million offer to acquire the 2021 All-Star. And, well, the Blue Jays are finding out why the Mariners didn't think he was worth eight figures per year for the next several years.
Kikuchi has a 4.80 ERA and hasn't even pitched into the sixth inning of a game in the past month. And we're talking about a month that included starts against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds. If he can't handle those offenses, the next 2.5 years against the Red Sox and Yankees could be an expensive disaster.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Do We Need to Pick Just One?
Had he made enough starts last season, Carlos Rodon possibly would have won the AL Cy Young. But rather than reinvesting in him once he finally arrived, the White Sox let him go to San Francisco on a two-year, $44 million deal.
Meanwhile, their solution to their woes at second base was to just re-sign Leury Garcia to a three-year, $16.5 million deal, which has been a disaster. The backup plan at second (Josh Harrison for $4 million) has gone even worse.
And rather than embracing what would have been the best bullpen in baseball in Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman and Craig Kimbrel, they traded Kimbrel to the Dodgers for outfielder AJ Pollock, who has struggled, who is only marginally less expensive than Kimbrel and who didn't even address a need that Chicago had. The White Sox could use a mulligan on basically their entire offseason.
Cleveland Guardians: Not Adding Lineup Protection
Re-signing Jose Ramirez through 2028 was an obvious home run. However, beyond tightening its grip on its star third baseman, Cleveland did nothing via free agency or trade to actually improve the team. As a result, Ramirez has been intentionally walked five times since Memorial Day, as teams have finally figured out that pitching to Owen Miller, Josh Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez makes more sense than giving Ramirez a chance to hurt them.
Detroit Tigers: Giving Eduardo Rodriguez $77 Million
For as dreadful as Javier Baez has been thus far in Detroit, it's still premature to say the Tigers regret that six-year, $140 million deal. Baez hit 125 home runs from 2017-21 and darn near won NL MVP in 2018. He's bound to come around eventually, right?
But locking in Eduardo Rodriguez for half a decade at $15.4 million per year was certainly a decision, as he has yet to post a 3.80 ERA or better in a season in his career. He is currently away from the team for a personal matter, but he had a 4.38 ERA through his first eight starts.
Kansas City Royals: Bringing Back Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke won the AL Cy Young while with Kansas City back in 2009, and for the first couple of starts this season, it was a fun re-marriage. But Greinke had a 9.50 ERA in his final four starts of May before landing on the IL with an elbow injury. So, not only are the 22-41, small-market Royals paying $13 million for a single, 38-year-old pitcher, but now he's not even pitching for them. And considering he had an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, it's unclear what they were expecting to get out of the aging former ace.
Minnesota Twins: The Structure of Carlos Correa's Contract
Carlos Correa is with the Minnesota Twins on a three-year, $105.3 million contract, but each of the next two years of the deal are player options. That means if he plays well enough this season to get the type of long-term Corey Seager deal (10 years, $325 million) he was hoping for this past offseason, he can skedaddle and there's nothing Minnesota can do about it. Conversely, if he struggles or gets hurt, the Twins are on the hook for an awful lot of money for an under-delivering shortstop.
It was a huge risk for the otherwise frugal Twins, but I suppose it has worked out for them thus far, with Correa batting .366 over his past 27 games played.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: No Regrets
The Houston Astros didn't do a ton this offseason, but it seems like every move they made was a good one. Riding with Jeremy Pena instead of overpaying to keep Carlos Correa? Genius. Re-signing Justin Verlander? Perfection. Letting Kendall Graveman walk and then replacing him with Hector Neris on a very similar contract? Surprisingly successful.
If I had to make a complaint here, it's that they traded Garrett Stubbs to the Phillies for a Single-A prospect, and now Stubbs has a 1.063 OPS. But he had a .485 OPS in his three seasons with Houston, so who could have seen that coming?
Los Angeles Angels: Spending Big on Wrong Bullpen Arms
Angels relievers had a cumulative 4.59 ERA last season, and they knew that had to change if they wanted to finally make it back to the postseason. So they paid a lot of money (four years, $58 million) to keep closer Raisel Iglesias, kicked pretty much everyone else to the curb and brought in Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera and Archie Bradley. And, well, those four guys have a combined ERA of 4.59 with 10 blown saves. Not exactly what they had in mind.
Oakland A's: Failing to Completely Clear the Books
The Oakland A's let Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, Yan Gomes, Jake Diekman, Josh Harrison and Sergio Romo all leave via free agency. Those seven guys landed elsewhere on deals paying them a combined total of more than $57 million this season alone. Then, after the lockout ended, they dealt Chris Bassitt to the New York Mets, Matt Olson to the Atlanta Braves, Matt Chapman to the Toronto Blue Jays and Sean Manaea to the San Diego Padres for what amounted to salary relief, one top-100 prospect (Shea Langeliers) and a boatload of mediocre minor leaguers.
But they're still paying Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty at least $7 million each and didn't even manage to bottom out to the lowest payroll in baseball. (Baltimore is still a bit below the Oakland.) If you're going to throw in the towel before the season even starts, sheesh, at least throw it all the way in.
Seattle Mariners: Letting Tyler Anderson Walk
Tyler Anderson darn near threw a no-hitter against the Angels on Wednesday night, but Seattle regretted this one long before that gem. Anderson is now 8-0 on the year with a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Of course, that's a far cry from the 4.81 ERA and 1.32 WHIP he had in 13 starts with Seattle last season, so one can understand why the M's didn't want to pay $8 million for another year of his services.
Texas Rangers: Signing and Then Waiving Matt Carpenter
After all the millions Texas threw at Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Brad Miller, Kole Calhoun and others this past offseason, signing three-time All-Star Matt Carpenter to a "$2 million if you make it to the big leagues" minor league deal in mid-March didn't even register a blip on the radar. When they released the 36-year-old two months later, barely anyone noticed.
The Yankees did, however, and they scooped him up a week later, immediately put him in the big leagues for $2 million and watched him hit six home runs in his first 10 games back. All the while, the Rangers have gotten next to nothing from their third basemen this season and could really use Carpenter's veteran expertise as they try to make a postseason push.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Choosing Eddie Rosario over Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler
Before the 2021 trade deadline, the Braves traded for the three outfielders listed above, and they each played a key role in winning it all. But there was only enough room at the inn to bring one of the three back, and it seems they chose poorly. Maybe Rosario will play better after he returns from eye surgery (not expected back before the All-Star break), but it's insult added to injury that Pederson (14 HR, .269 AVG) and Soler (12 HR, .223 AVG) are both making considerable positive contributions in their new homes.
Miami Marlins: Signing Avisail Garcia to a 4-Year Deal
Maybe Avisail Garcia just plays well in odd-numbered years and the 2023 and 2025 portions of this contract will work out nicely.
He was an All-Star in 2017, batted .282 with 20 home runs in 2019, and racked up 29 homers and 86 RBI for the Brewers last year. But he hit .236 in 2018, slugged .326 in 2020 and has been even worse in both departments thus far in 2022, making that four-year, $53 million contract look like a disaster—especially considering they could have gotten Mark Canha for two years and $26.5 million instead.
New York Mets: Not Addressing the Bullpen
The Mets did quite a lot in free agency, signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, each on multiyear deals worth at least $10 million per year.
What they neglected to do, however, was anything about the bullpen. They let Aaron Loup, Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia all walk and merely brought in Adam Ottavino, Chasen Shreve and Joely Rodriguez to replace them. And even though closer Edwin Diaz has been a strikeout machine, the net result is a bullpen that otherwise leaves much to be desired.
Philadelphia Phillies: Incorrectly Addressing the Bullpen
While the Mets seemingly forgot about their bullpen this offseason, the Phillies aggressively tried to fix what was an outright disaster last year, replacing three established veterans (Hector Neris, Ian Kennedy and Archie Bradley) with a new trio of established veterans (Corey Knebel, Hand and Familia).
Hand has been solid, but since the beginning of May, Knebel has blown four saves with nearly as many walks (13) as strikeouts (17), while Familia has a 4.70 ERA. Seems inevitable that Philadelphia will, once again, be in the market for bullpen arms ahead of the trade deadline.
Washington Nationals: Not Reaching a Long-Term Deal with Juan Soto
At least the Nats tried here. Soto reportedly rejected a 13-year, $350 million contract offer from the Nationals prior to the lockout, which is a better deal than Bryce Harper got with the Phillies (13 years, $330 million) and a better deal than Fernando Tatis Jr. got with the Padres (14 years, $340 million). But even though the offer looks impressive, it's "only" $26.9 million per year, which is barely three-quarters of the $35.5 AAV that Mike Trout is getting in Los Angeles and is identical to what Christian Yelich is getting in Milwaukee.
Soto is worth more than that, and the closer they get to his end-of-2024 free-agency date, the tougher it's going to be for the Nationals to actually re-sign him. (Also, paying $15 million for one year of turns-42-in-July Nelson Cruz was quite the head-scratcher.)
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Signing Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman was an All-Star in 2019 and certainly should have been one in 2021. He didn't pitch in 2020, but he entered free agency with a 3.12 ERA over the past three calendar years and was bound to get a lucrative deal somewhere. But the Cubs giving him a three-year, $71 million contract felt like a case of a team trying to overspend its way through the rebuilding process. Even if he was pitching well, they'd still be sub-.500 right now. But he has given them a 5.32 ERA and is currently on the IL.
Cincinnati Reds: Trading for Mike Minor
I just don't even understand what the goal was here. The Reds lost Nick Castellanos as a free agent and appeared to be embracing a down year by trading away Sonny Gray, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker. But a few days after those deals went through, they traded Amir Garrett for Mike Minor, who is making $10 million this season and who had an ERA north of 5.00 in both 2020 and 2021.
Through three starts in Cincinnati, he has a 7.36 ERA. But same as Stroman in Chicago, even if he was on fire right now, the Reds would still be nowhere close to the postseason picture.
Milwaukee Brewers: Signing Andrew McCutchen
In his career, Andrew McCutchen has hit more home runs against the Brewers (36) than he has against any other team. And between the addition of the universal DH and the fact that he had a renaissance type of year in 2021 with 27 home runs, they decided to snatch him up on a one-year, $8.5 million deal.
But the return on that investment has been zero. Less than zero, actually, as he has been worth negative-0.6 WAR, according to FanGraphs. Among the 159 players with at least 200 plate appearances, only Detroit rookie Spencer Torkelson has provided less value than McCutchen.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Not Keeping Chad Kuhl
Chad Kuhl has "Kuhled" off considerably since giving the Colorado Rockies a 1.82 ERA through his first five starts, but his overall numbers are still solid. He has made six quality starts, including going six shutout innings earlier this month against the molten-hot Atlanta Braves.
Suffice it to say, Pittsburgh—which has a starting rotation with a 4-26 record and a 4.89 ERA—wishes it had re-upped with Kuhl rather than letting him go to Colorado on a meager one-year, $3 million deal.
St. Louis Cardinals: Signing Steven Matz
In 30.2 innings pitched in 2020, Steven Matz allowed 33 earned runs. But he bounced back with a respectable 3.82 ERA in 29 starts for the Blue Jays in 2021, and that got the now 31-year-old lefty a four-year deal worth $44 million from the St. Louis Cardinals. Unfortunately, they got the 2020 version of Matz, as he had a 6.03 ERA through nine starts before landing on the IL with a shoulder injury.
The Cards have a great 1-2-3 atop the rotation in Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson, but they're going to need to spend for at least one more arm before the trade deadline unless Matz comes back soon and comes back better.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Signing Mark Melancon
We'll keep this one succinct since I know I'm going to ramble about the three contenders in this division, but signing a closer to a two-year, $14 million deal is supposed to be a luxury reserved for a team looking for the final piece of its postseason puzzle. Spending like that for a 37-year-old pitcher right after a 52-110 debacle made no sense for Arizona, and he has struggled to the tune of a 6.04 ERA for them.
Colorado Rockies: Giving Kris Bryant $182 Million
Two-and-a-half months into a seven-year contract is way too early to pronounce it a flop, especially since Kris Bryant has spent most of that time on the IL. But one of the most surprising moves of the entire offseason has not come anywhere close to panning out for the Rockies.
Bryant has played in 17 games with more IL stints (two) than home runs hit (zero). And the fact that they were able to find $26 million per year to give to Bryant while letting Trevor Story sign with Boston for $23.3 million per year was a nice big slap in the face to the Rockies faithful.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Not Doing More to Revamp the Bullpen
Replacing Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel and Joe Kelly was always going to be a challenge. Losing Blake Treinen, Jimmy Nelson and Victor Gonzalez to the 60-day IL hasn't helped matters. But aside from taking a $7 million flyer on Daniel Hudson and trading for Craig Kimbrel just before the season started—after they already knew Nelson and Gonzalez were out indefinitely—they didn't do much to repair the depleted bullpen.
And with Kimbrel struggling mightily over the past five weeks, relief pitching has become a legitimate weak point for the formerly clear favorites to win the World Series.
San Diego Padres: Doing Nothing in the Outfield (and Letting Fernando Tatis Jr. Ride Motorcycles)
Eleven different players made at least five appearances in the outfield for the Padres last season. Of those 11 players, three (Tommy Pham, Jake Marisnick and John Andreoli) left as free agents, two (Adam Frazier and Tucupita Marcano) were traded away, one (Jorge Mateo) was waived last season, one (Brian O'Grady) is now playing in Japan and one (Fernando Tatis Jr.) has yet to play this season.
Aside from calling up Jose Azocar, the Padres did basically nothing to plug all those holes. Thus, between Wil Myers getting injured and Trent Grisham slumping miserably, outfield has been a struggle for a team that is otherwise thriving.
San Francisco Giants: Doubling Down on Anthony DeSclafani
In 2021, the Giants got Anthony DeSclafani on a one-year, $6 million deal, which was a risky investment in a guy who had a 7.22 ERA in 2020. But he became a huge piece of their 107-win puzzle, tossing a pair of complete-game shutouts en route to a 3.17 ERA. Because of it, they brought him back on a three-year, $36 million contract. However, he made just three disappointing starts with a 6.08 ERA before landing on the IL with an ankle injury, where he has been for the past two months.
To make matters worse, another expensive pitcher, Alex Cobb, struggled for eight starts before also getting hurt (neck). Despite committing a combined $56 million to those two starters this past offseason, San Francisco is clearly looking to bring in another starting pitcher before the trade deadline.
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