How Are MLB Offseason Winners (and Losers) Faring Thus Far?
After all the dust settled on a most unconventional 2021-22 MLB offseason, it appeared that some teams did much better at improving their World Series chances than others.
Now that we're a little over two months into the season, though, how are we feeling about the biggest winners and losers of the offseason?
The Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers were each unusually aggressive in the most recent free-agency cycle, but those offseason winners haven't done a whole lot of winning during the regular season.
Conversely, the New York Yankees took an uncharacteristically frugal approach into the offseason, yet they entered play Saturday four games ahead of the Mets for the best record in baseball.
Offseason Winner: Seattle Mariners
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Offseason Recap: Signed Robbie Ray to five-year, $115 million deal; Traded for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker
Failing to re-sign any of Yusei Kikuchi, James Paxton and Tyler Anderson was a disappointment for the Seattle Mariners, but it sure did seem like they more than made up for it with the three additions listed above.
Ray was fresh off an AL Cy Young season in which he led the majors in strikeouts (248) and led the AL in both ERA (2.84) and WHIP (1.045). The hope was that he would be the ace this staff has been lacking since Felix Hernandez started to rapidly decline midway through the last decade. However, Ray has been a disappointment in Seattle, saddled with a 4.97 ERA for the year and posting just one quality start in his last eight appearances.
Meanwhile, Jesse Winker has been an even bigger letdown. One year removed from batting .305 with 24 home runs, he's sitting at .209 and four, respectively.
At least Eugenio Suarez is leading the team with 11 home runs, but he's doing so with a .326 OBP while leading the majors in strikeouts.
Throw in the fact that Anderson is 7-0 with a 3.07 ERA for the Dodgers, and Seattle has gone from looking like one of the offseason's biggest winners to one of its biggest losers.
Offseason Loser: New York Yankees
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Offseason Recap: Re-signed Anthony Rizzo on a two-year deal but added no noteworthy free agents; Failed to sign Aaron Judge to an extension; Collectively traded Luke Voit, Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez for Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and a prospect (Justin Lange)
The New York Yankees entered the offseason as one of the favorites to win the World Series, so it's understandable that they didn't want to tinker much with a strong product.
All the same, it felt like the Yankees were a bit too inactive.
The team let Andrew Heaney and Corey Kluber walk, and they both landed with contenders (Heaney to LAD; Kluber to TB) on one-year deals. The Yankees did re-sign Rizzo, but they fell short of re-upping with Judge, which looks worse now than it did at the time.
Judge reportedly turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million offer, which would have kept him in pinstripes through 2029. And as the impending free agent slugs his way toward an AL MVP, many are already speculating that he could get a $300 million contract this offseason.
The last reigning MVP to change teams as a free agent was Barry Bonds, who went from Pittsburgh to San Francisco after the 1992 season. So these are relatively uncharted waters that could have been avoided with a better offer a few months ago. (Though, given Judge's injury history, one can see why they were hesitant to give him an Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera type of long-term deal.)
What really made New York seem like a loser was its inability to snare one of the big-name shortstops in free agency. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Javier Baez all signed big deals elsewhere, while the Yankees settled on a trade for light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa. IKF does have a solid glove, but it's astounding that they were the first team to 40 wins while burying his homerless bat in the bottom third of the lineup on a nightly basis.
Offseason Winner: Atlanta Braves
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Offseason Recap: Lost Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Jorge Soler (Marlins) and Joc Pederson (Giants); Re-signed Eddie Rosario (two years, $18M); Signed Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh to enhance the bullpen; Traded for Matt Olson
When the lockout finally ended, the Atlanta Braves put together an entire offseason's worth of moves in the span of about nine days.
Save for picking up Yates in late November, the World Series champions did basically nothing until March 14. And that's when the trade for Olson set off a series of dominoes.
The Braves dealt Cristian Pache and three minor leaguers for a first baseman who finished eighth in last year's AL MVP vote in one of the most unanimously one-sided trades in recent memory. (Though, with the way Shea Langeliers has been raking in Triple-A, maybe the A's will at least get something out of the deal.)
Freeman signed with the Dodgers a few days later, but at that point, it was just a question of when he left Atlanta, not if. It was a similar story with Pederson and Soler's relocation soon after the Braves re-upped with Rosario for two years. Adding Jansen and McHugh to an already solid bullpen was the icing on the cake.
So, two months later, how has it all panned out for Atlanta?
Well, it could be better.
Olson started out on fire, but he's batting just .209 with five home runs over his last 47 games. While Pederson and Soler have hit a combined 25 home runs in their new homes, Rosario was batting .068 before undergoing eye surgery and landing on the IL. (Though, his absence did at least pave the way for Michael Harris II to get to the big leagues, which has been fun to watch.)
Jansen has tallied 17 saves but is having one of the worst seasons of his career as far as ERA is concerned. And Yates has not yet pitched in 2022 as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery performed last March.
All told, the poor return on offseason investment was a huge reason the Braves won just 23 of their first 50 games.
Offseason Loser: Cincinnati Reds
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Offseason Recap: Nick Castellanos opted out, signed with Phillies; Wade Miley, Michael Lorenzen and Mychal Givens left; Signed Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Brandon Drury, Hunter Strickland and Colin Moran; Traded Sonny Gray to Minnesota, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to Seattle and Amir Garrett to Kansas City for a whole lot of nothing
After a 2021 campaign in which Castellanos batted .309 with 34 home runs, it was inevitable that he would opt out of the final two years and $34 million on his contract with the Cincinnati Reds and sign a bigger deal elsewhere.
And when he did officially opt out on March 12, the Reds kind of, sort of threw in the towel on 2022, trading three of their best players from last season within days.
What made no sense, however, was trading Garrett for Mike Minor's $10 million salary soon after parting ways with Gray, Suarez and Winker.
It's almost as if the Reds had seller's remorse and suddenly felt the need to put together a semi-competent roster full of semi-expensive guys in their mid-30s, as they also picked up the 34-year-old Solano, 34-year-old Pham and 33-year-old Strickland within the subsequent 10 days.
They dumped Gray's $10 million salary for a prospect (Chase Petty) and got out from under the three years and $34 million left on Suarez's deal by also giving the Mariners the reasonably priced Winker. But then they signed up for a combined $22-plus million worth of older guys who probably won't be on the roster next season. (Minor and Pham both have team/mutual options for 2023, but Cincinnati may pass on both.)
That's just bizarre decision making, and it set the stage for an atrocious 3-22 start to the season. A widespread injury bug also played a major part in that horrendous start, but Cincinnati's offseason maneuvering did not put the club in a position to succeed.
Offseason Winner: Detroit Tigers
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Offseason Recap: Signed Javier Baez (six years, $140M); Signed Eduardo Rodriguez (five years; $77M); Signed Andrew Chafin (two years, $13M); Signed Michael Pineda (one year, $5.5M); Traded for Austin Meadows; Traded for Tucker Barnhart
Rather than wait until Miguel Cabrera's albatross of a contract finally goes away after the 2023 season, the Detroit Tigers swung big in hopes of competing this season.
But it was a great, big swing and miss.
One year removed from batting .265 with 31 home runs and 18 stolen bases, Baez is at .196, three and one, respectively. And in a combined 255 plate appearances, neither Meadows nor Barnhart has homered for the Tigers.
As far as the pitching goes, Rodriguez had a 4.38 ERA before landing on the IL with a rib injury. Michael Pineda made just five starts prior to his annual pilgrimage to the IL. And while Chafin has been solid out of the bullpen (2.57 ERA), there haven't been many leads for him to protect.
To be fair, it's not like it's just the new acquisitions who are struggling. No one is hitting well, and with the exception of Tarik Skubal, the pitching has been just OK, at best.
But after five consecutive losing seasons in Detroit, no one expected the in-house talent to get the job done. The Tigers spent a lot of money on outside help to fix their problems, and it has not panned out in the slightest.
Offseason Loser: Chicago White Sox
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Offseason Recap: Lost Carlos Rodon to the Giants; Lost Ryan Tepera to the Angels, but signed Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly; Signed Vince Velasquez and Johnny Cueto; Re-signed Leury Garcia; Traded Craig Kimbrel for A.J. Pollock; Traded Zack Collins for Reese McGuire
Not re-signing Rodon was at least a defensible move. The Chicago White Sox already had Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Lance Lynn and Dylan Cease coming back, they wanted to cement Michael Kopech as a starter and they didn't particularly want to pay through the nose for a guy who had a 4.14 ERA from 2015 to 2020 and who had never pitched more than 165 innings in a season.
It looks like a terrible decision now, as Rodon is thriving with the Giants, Lynn has yet to pitch this season and Keuchel was plain awful before getting designated for assignment. But not paying the going rate (which turned out to be two years, $44 million) for Rodon made sense during the offseason.
What never made sense was failing to improve at second base.
That position was a major problem for the White Sox last season, and it's worse this year with both Leury Garcia and Josh Harrison batting below .185.
Chicago didn't have the budget to make a Marcus Semien deal happen via free agency. But you're telling me the White Sox couldn't have gotten a decent second baseman for Craig Kimbrel instead of trading him for a 34-year-old outfielder?
It seemed like the White Sox spent the entire offseason making, "Eh, we're going to win the AL Central anyway" types of moves, and they're paying the price for it. They still may win the division once Lynn (knee), Tim Anderson (groin) and Eloy Jimenez (hamstring) get back on the field, but Chicago really did nothing to improve this offseason and is sputtering near .500.
Offseason Winner: Texas Rangers
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Offseason Recap: Signed Corey Seager (10 years, $325M), Marcus Semien (seven years, $175M), Jon Gray (four years, $56M) to long-term deals; Signed Brad Miller, Martin Perez, Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Matt Moore and Greg Holland to shorter deals, each for at least $2M in 2022; Traded for Mitch Garver; Traded Jose Trevino and Yonny Hernandez for Albert Abreu and two prospects
We've saved the Rangers for last, because, frankly, we're all trying to figure out whether this major offseason spender has gotten enough bang for its many, many bucks.
Getting Martin Perez for just $4 million was the steal of all steals, as he's entering play Saturday leading the AL with a 1.56 ERA. He's either going to be a big reason this team makes a playoff push, or the impending free agent will be the most sought-after asset at the trade deadline.
But Texas hasn't gotten much return out of its major investments.
Semien is finally starting to hit like the near MVP that he was in 2019 and 2021, but his year-to-date home run total, batting average and slugging percentage are still a far cry from what the Rangers were hoping for. Corey Seager is on pace to set a career high in home runs, but $325 million for a .290 OBP is a tough pill to swallow. And Jon Gray has a 5.28 ERA.
They're 26-31 and closer to the Oakland A's at the bottom of the AL West than they are to the Houston Astros at the top of the division.
For now, this huge offseason winner/spender is a considerable in-season loser.
Let's make sure to pen that in erasable ink for at least another five weeks, though, because 20 of Texas' final 28 games before the All-Star break will come against the bottom-feeding collection of the Tigers, Nationals, Royals, Orioles, A's and Mariners. Whether they can pull it off is uncertain, but the table is set for the Rangers to go on a tear and break up the AL East's attempted monopoly on wild-card teams.
