2012 NFL Draft: 50 Bold Predictions for the Upcoming Draft
At this time last year, Cam Newton was a long shot to be selected by the Carolina Panthers with the first pick of the 2011 NFL draft.
Now we know that those few people who did predict Newton's selection were simply ahead of everyone else. What was a bold, outlandish statement quickly became, well, not so bold.
In 2012, there will be no surprises regarding the first overall pick. We may not know what team will take him, but Andrew Luck will be the No. 1 pick of the 2012 NFL draft.
However, there is still much to be determined. At least a third of the first round is still up for grabs, and many players will rise and fall dramatically between now and April.
There's tons of time for things to change, and what seems bold now will be boring in a few months.
Robert Griffin III Will Be a Top-Three Pick
1 of 50Before the 2011 season, Robert Griffin III was not considered a first-round pick, let alone a top-five selection. But after a terrific junior season, Griffin is easily the second-best quarterback in the draft, and he is certain to be selected in the first 10 picks.
Odds are that neither the St. Louis Rams nor the Minnesota Vikings will be interested in selecting Griffin. However, one of the two will trade back, and that team will select Griffin. Too many teams need quarterbacks for it not to happen.
Kellen Moore Will Be Drafted Too High
2 of 50Kellen Moore is a great college quarterback, but he is not made for the NFL. Moore is just 5'11", 190 pounds and lacks the arm to make NFL throws. Unfortunately, some NFL team is going to ignore this and take Moore anyway.
Moore may be able to be a decent backup quarterback, but he is going to be drafted far too early for that. It sounds like Moore is going to be drafted in the third round, and that is too soon for a guy with a backup's ceiling.
Morris Claiborne Is a Future Top-Five Pick
3 of 50Maybe this one isn't so bold. Morris Claiborne has been projected as a top-10 pick for a while, and he has recently moved into most mock drafts' top five. I just can't find any way Claiborne falls out of the top five.
In a weak draft, Claiborne is one of the few elite players at the top. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Matt Kalil are the others. Trent Richardson is also elite, but it's hard for many teams to justify such a high pick on a running back.
In the top five, anyone else is a reach.
Cordy Glenn Won’t Be Drafted in the First Two Rounds
4 of 50For whatever reason, many have decided Cordy Glenn is a stud, a first-round draft pick. I don't see it. Glenn is big, but he's incredibly slow and struggles to block in space.
People love Glenn because of his size, strength and power. Though he is great in all three of these departments, he is simply too slow to last in the NFL. Every year, a big, slow, interior offensive lineman gets overrated, and Glenn is 2012's.
A Team in the Top Ten Will Take Dontari Poe.
5 of 50On the field, Dontari Poe is not worthy of a top-10 pick. However, Poe is entering a draft that is terribly weak at the top, and the big man has elite potential.
Poe is 6'5", 350 pounds and has athleticism unheard of for a man of his size. As unbelievable as it seems, Poe really does have Haloti Ngata-potential, and he can play in virtually any defensive scheme.
Quinton Coples Is Going To Play in a 3-4 Defense
6 of 50Many have labeled Quinton Coples as a top-10 pick, but they are off base. Though he is incredibly athletic, Coples lacks the burst and explosion to develop into an elite pass-rusher.
Because of his inability to be an elite edge-rusher, Coples projects best to the 3-4 defense. At 6'6", 285 pounds, Coples has the size and frame to play the 5-tech position, especially in a one-gap 3-4 scheme. Coples may not be a great pass-rusher, but he would be a nice weapon in the 3-4.
No Centers Will Be Drafted in the First Two Days
7 of 50For a while, both Ben Jones and Michael Brewster were projected as early round picks. Some still like Jones in the second round, but Brewster has pretty well fallen out of first-day discussion.
Wisconsin's Peter Konz is likely a first-round pick if he declares for the draft, but I do not believe that will happen. Centers rarely leave early, and though Konz certainly could, it sounds like he will return to Wisconsin.
That leaves Jones as the top center, and he simply isn't talented enough to be taken so early.
The New Orleans Saints Are Going To Draft a Guard Early
8 of 50The Saints currently have two Pro Bowlers at guard in Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. However, Nicks is a free agent, and the Saints rely on their offensive line.
New Orleans doesn't have a great rushing attack as it is, and they desperately need to keep their interior line strong. The Saints will likely select a powerful guard, and Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler fits the bill perfectly.
Kendall Wright Will Be Drafted Before Michael Floyd
9 of 50Between off-the-field issues, injury problems and actual on-the-field questions, Michael Floyd is a risky prospect. Kendall Wright, on the other hand, is not overly risky and he has the speed to develop into an excellent wideout.
Wright is not especially big, but he is quick and offers any offense a vertical threat. In fact, Wright can play deep or work the underneath and gain yards after the catch. He fits any scheme, and his stock is on the rise.
Jonathan Martin Won’t Be Drafted in the Top 20
10 of 50Jonathan Martin was once seen as a top-10, maybe even top-five draft pick. 2011 has revealed his flaws, however, and he is not worthy of such a high pick.
At 6'5", 305 pounds, Martin isn't especially big, and he isn't a great athlete either. Martin is technically solid, but his upside is limited, and no one wants to draft a decent offensive tackle in the top 10.
Trent Richardson Is a Future Top-Five Pick
11 of 50No running back has been drafted in the top five since Darren McFadden in 2008, but Trent Richardson will be. This draft has five elite talents, and after those five players are selected, there is a significant drop-off in talent.
Richardson is an Adrian Peterson-esque talent, and he is the rare running back who actually deserves to be taken so early. The Alabama star literally has no weaknesses, and he is as complete of a player as there is in the 2012 draft.
David DeCastro Will Be Selected in the Top 10
12 of 50David DeCastro is the best guard prospect to enter the draft since Steve Hutchinson in 2001. Hutchinson wasn't taken in the top 10, but DeCastro will be.
After the top five players are taken, there aren't any great talents left. Many teams are in desperate need of offensive line help, and DeCastro is a safe pick with fantastic upside. Every year, guards seem to be selected earlier than in the previous draft, and DeCastro will be the one to break into the top 10.
Kelechi Osemele Is a Right Tackle, Not a Guard
13 of 50Because of his size, Kelechi Osemele is often projected as a guard in the NFL. However, Osemele is not overly slow and actually has the lateral quickness to pass block on the right side.
Osemele may actually project better at tackle than guard because of his lateral quickness. The Iowa State left tackle does not do a great job of moving in open space, but he has the footwork to handle speed-rushers at tackle.
We’re Going To See a Lot of Trades
14 of 50The 2012 NFL draft will, for the first time, feature a contract slotting system that we are aware of. Last year the slotting system was not implemented until after the draft, so it did not have much of an impact on trades. This year will be different.
With set salaries for early draft picks, teams will be more ambitious in trading up into the top 10. There are no huge salary-cap ramifications for such a move, and many teams are in need of one impact player. The Atlanta Falcons made a bold move last year, and expect more teams to follow suit.
Ronnell Lewis Will Play Inside Linebacker
15 of 50Ronnell Lewis is a fast, athletic player who is widely projected as a 3-4 outside linebacker. However, Lewis doesn't have any great pass-rush moves and lacks the burst to compensate for it.
This, along with his tendency to lay the wood, makes Lewis a great candidate to play on the inside in a 3-4. Lewis possesses the speed to play sideline to sideline and can serve as a thumper as well. Lewis' new team could even use him on creative blitzes to attack the quarterback.
A Team Will Take Mike Adams Earlier Than They Should
16 of 50A 6'8", 320-pounder, Mike Adams is incredibly talented. Adams was a highly ranked recruit, and prior to this season, underachieved for the Buckeyes. After returning from a suspension, Adams finally played up to his ability and looked like a first-round pick.
However, Adams is incredibly risky. He has often looked lazy and his previous three seasons are not a good indication of his NFL future. The Ohio State left tackle can be bull-rushed, and he is far from a perfect player.
Some team will take a chance on Adams's upside in the top 20 anyway.
Unlike Vontaze Burfict, Luke Kuechly Is a Future Top-15 Pick
17 of 50Vontaze Burfict is one of the most controversial players in the draft. The 6'3", 255-pounder is incredibly athletic and hits harder than anyone else in football. His ceiling is through the roof. Unfortunately, Burfict is far too aggressive and is frequently penalized.
Luke Kuechly, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. Kuechly is a decent, but unspectacular athlete with superb instincts and character. The Boston College star racks up the tackles and makes enough plays to warrant a high grade.
Kuechly doesn't have Burfict's potential, but his higher floor makes him a better prospect.
Landry Jones Is Not a 2012 First-Round Draft Pick
18 of 50Landry Jones is frequently praised for his size, arm strength and physical ability. Unfortunately, Jones is incredibly inaccurate and often makes boneheaded decisions.
A couple months ago, Jones was considered a top-10 pick. As the season stretched on, however, Jones' many flaws became even more apparent. In all likelihood, Jones will not declare for the 2012 draft. If he does, he will not be selected in the first round.
The Cleveland Browns Will Try To Trade Up for Andrew Luck
19 of 50Colt McCoy is a flop. The Browns need a quarterback, and unlike most teams, they have the ammunition to make a move for Andrew Luck.
Cleveland acquired an extra first-round pick when they traded down with the Atlanta Falcons in the 2011 NFL draft. Now, the Browns will have their own top-five pick and the Falcons' late first-rounder. With both of these picks, Cleveland has more motivation and better picks than any other team in the hunt for Luck.
Seven Offensive Linemen Are Future First-Round Picks
20 of 50It's a given that Matt Kalil, Jonathan Martin, Riley Reiff and David DeCastro are first-round draft picks along the offensive line. Mike Adams is likely to be selected in the first as well.
Then there are some more offensive linemen that are borderline. Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler and Florida State's Zebrie Sanders are both early second-round or late first-round picks. Because of the weak talent in the middle of this draft's first round, I have my money on them both going in the first 32 picks.
Ryan Tannehill Will Be Taken with a Top-15 Pick
21 of 50After Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, this quarterback class is incredibly weak. Many teams in the first half of the first round are in desperate need of a quarterback, and one of them will reach for Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill is talented, but raw. The 6'4", 235-pounder is a former wide receiver with all the physical ability to dominate in the NFL. As one would expect, Tannehill has some issues with his mechanics and decision-making, but he will still be taken early.
Michael Floyd Is Going To Fall
22 of 50Michael Floyd is one of the most talented players in the 2012 draft, but he has too many issues to ignore. The Notre Dame star has been arrested multiple times for alcohol-related offenses, and he has been hurt quite a bit as as well.
Now, I'm not saying Floyd will completely fall out of the first round. But he won't be selected as early as someone with his talent should be. Instead of going in the first 10 or 15 picks, Floyd will go in the first 25 or 30 picks.
A Team with a 3-4 Defense Will Draft Melvin Ingram
23 of 50Because he weighs in at 6'2", 275 pounds, Melvin Ingram would seem to be a better fit for a 4-3 defense. However, Ingram's best asset is his versatility, and he moves around from position to position.
Ingram is incredibly similar to Adalius Thomas, who would have never dominated in a 4-3 scheme. It is unlikely that Ingram will ever develop into a dominant pass-rusher, but a creative defensive coordinator will find value in him.
The Arizona Cardinals Will Trade Up
24 of 50If it weren't for their dreadful offensive line, the Arizona Cardinals would not be a bad football team. However, the Cardinals have a below-average player at all five positions, and they desperately need to upgrade.
Unfortunately, Arizona will be drafting too late to add one of the draft's premier offensive linemen. So they will trade up. The Cardinals won't be able to move up high enough for Matt Kalil, but Riley Reiff or David DeCastro should be within reach.
Alshon Jeffery Is Going To Fall Too Far
25 of 50Alshon Jeffery dominated in 2010, but a poor performance in 2011 has hurt his draft stock. Jeffery often looked overweight and slow, so people have concerns that he may be another Mike Williams or Dwayne Jarrett.
With that said, Jeffery is still a great talent. At 6'3", 235 pounds, he has fantastic size and no one has better catching ability. Make no mistake about it, Jeffery is a risky pick. However, his upside is too great to ignore, and he should be a first-round pick.
The New England Patriots Are Going To Draft for a 3-4 Defense
26 of 50Recently, the New England Patriots have utilized a variety of 4-3 looks, and they have run the scheme almost exclusively in 2011. However, the new scheme hasn't worked, and Bill Belichick may look to go back to his 3-4 defense.
The Patriots still have many great fits for the 3-4 defense on their roster. Vince Wilfork is a perfect nose tackle, Jerod Mayo is a great MIKE and the team has tons of rotational linemen. If New England adds a couple 3-4 outside linebackers, they can easily revert back.
Mark Barron Won’t Be Drafted in the First Round
27 of 50Many have been projecting Mark Barron in the first round, but it's not going to happen. The Alabama safety isn't great at anything and benefits from the fantastic talent surrounding him.
Barron is a pure strong safety who lacks the speed and quickness to drop back in coverage. His NFL team will have to use him close to the line of scrimmage, or he will go down as a huge bust. NFL teams don't like this lack of versatility, and Barron will last until the second round.
No One Will Draft Courtney Upshaw in the First Round
28 of 50Courtney Upshaw has been talked about as a first-round draft pick for a year now, but his play doesn't live up to the hype. At 6'2", 260 pounds, Upshaw is purely a 3-4 linebacker and offers no value to a 4-3 defense.
Unfortunately, Upshaw doesn't possess the burst to excel as a pass-rusher. Though the Alabama linebacker is strong against the run, he isn't quick enough to play well in coverage. No team has much use for a one-dimensional run-stopper at a pass-rushing position.
Scott Pioli Will Finally Draft an Iowa Player in Round 1
29 of 50In 2010, Scott Pioli and the Kansas City Chiefs were rumored to be interested in Iowa offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga at No. 5. Bulaga went 23rd to the Green Bay Packers and would have been a colossal reach in the top five.
Two years later, Pioli is going to find his Iowa tackle. Riley Reiff is a good value around No. 10, and the Chiefs happen to be picking right around then. Branden Albert is a decent player, but the Chiefs have a huge need for one tackle, and Reiff fits the billing.
Janoris Jenkins Is Still Going To Be a Top-20 Draft Pick
30 of 50After multiple off-the-field issues, Janoris Jenkins was kicked off Florida's team. Jenkins spent his senior season at North Alabama and will be entering the 2012 NFL draft.
NFL teams are often wary of players with multiple character flags, but Jenkins is so talented it won't matter. Jenkins was actually better than his former teammate Joe Haden and, on the field, he is a top-15 talent. It may not be the Cincinnati Bengals, but someone will take the chance.
A Tight End Will Be Drafted in the First Round
31 of 50It could be Michael Egnew. It could be Coby Fleener. It could be Orson Charles. It could be someone else. A tight end will be drafted in the first round.
As I've mentioned about 90 times, this is a weak first round. Some team will fall in love with one of these tight ends, and they won't wait until the second round. Egnew is a great receiver, Fleener is well-rounded and Charles is a fantastic athlete. Teams love dynamic players, and any one of these guys fits.
Ted Thompson Won’t Draft Purely for BPA
32 of 50Ted Thompson has become famous for drafting the best player available. This strategy has led to a surplus of offensive talent and could be credited for the Packers' Super Bowl victory.
In 2012, Thompson is going to mix it up a bit. Green Bay has a ton of talent on offense, but they need work on defense. The Packers could really use a pass-rusher opposite of Clay Matthews or another defensive lineman.
Thompson is going to look to upgrade the team, and there is no better way to do it than by targeting one of these positions.
Case Keenum Won’t Be Drafted
33 of 50Case Keenum has put up some of the biggest numbers in college football history. However, he has played in the infamous spread offense and lacks NFL ability.
Like Graham Harrell, formerly of Texas Tech, Keenum was a fantastic college quarterback play, but he has no future in the NFL. Keenum isn't really good at anything, and he has a noodle arm.
Bruce Irvin Will Be Drafted To Play Linebacker in a 4-3 Defense
34 of 50Bruce Irvin is a poor man's Von Miller. At 6'3" 245 pounds, Irvin would be undersized at defensive end in a 4-3 scheme or outside linebacker in a 3-4. Like Miller, Irvin will play linebacker in a 4-3 defense.
Irvin struggles against the run and doesn't do much of anything other than rush the passer. However, Irvin is incredibly explosive and will excel as a blitzer in the NFL. Irvin isn't nearly the player Miller is, but he will play the same role in the NFL.
Chris Polk Won't Last Past the 40th Pick
35 of 50The second-most powerful runner in college football, Chris Polk is a great talent. The 5'11", 222-pounder possesses outstanding vision and is a complete player.
Polk doesn't have great speed and isn't really an outside runner, but he is so good at running inside that it doesn't really matter. In a two-running-back offense, Polk is the ideal power back.
Vinny Curry Will Fall Too Far
36 of 50At 6'5", 260 pounds, Vinny Curry could play in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defense. The Marshall defensive end has put together two double-digit-sack seasons and often dominates.
On the other hand, Curry won't excel at the NFL scouting combine and isn't a great athlete. Curry plays well on the field, but his lack of elite measurables will keep him out of the first round.
The Carolina Panthers Are Going To Hate Their First Pick
37 of 50In 2011, the Carolina Panthers selected Cam Newton with the No. 1 pick. They've been ecstatic with Newton. In 2012, they won't be quite so happy with their pick.
The Panthers are one of those unlucky teams to miss out on the top five but still pick in the top 10. Carolina could really use a star cornerback like Morris Claiborne, but they will have to settle for Dre Kirkpatrick or another inferior talent. Though the Panthers will pick early, they will not be happy with their first selection.
No One Will Draft Michael Brewster Until After the Fourth Round
38 of 50At one point, Michael Brewster was talked about as a first-round pick. However, Brewster was never talented enough to be drafted in the first few rounds, and he is falling hard.
A 6'5", 305-pounder, Brewster is athletic but undersized. Brewster often struggles with powerful defensive tackles and, for whatever reason, he isn't good at snapping the ball from the shotgun. Though Brewster might move to guard in the NFL, he still won't be taken in the first four rounds.
Dontari Poe Won’t Be Drafted into a 3-4 Defense
39 of 50At 6'5", 350 pounds, Dontari Poe has perfect size to play nose tackle in a 3-4 defense. Poe's play, on the other hand, suggests a 4-3 defensive tackle.
Poe isn't a pure space-eater, and he actually does a great job of penetrating into the backfield. Though this suggests Poe should play in a 4-3, the biggest factor is the teams picking around 10. Most of the teams that pick in the area Poe should be taken in run 4-3 schemes.
Many of these teams (Carolina) need defensive tackles and will take a chance on the talented Poe.
The Houston Texans Will Draft a Wide Receiver Early
40 of 50The Houston Texans have one of the NFL's best wide receivers in Andre Johnson, but they need a weapon opposite of him. Johnson is frequently injured, so this wideout would spend quite a bit of time as the team's primary receiver.
Though Houston really doesn't have many huge needs, another talented wide receiver would make the team's offense much more dynamic. There should be several good options available when Houston picks, and Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery or Kendall Wright could end up on the Texans.
A Team Will Draft Nick Foles in the First Three Rounds
41 of 50Nick Foles is a talented but inconsistent quarterback. The 6'5", 240-pounder has fantastic size and above-average arm strength. Arizona's offensive scheme often covers up Foles's inaccuracies, though, and he is not a well-rounded player.
But as we saw last year, quarterbacks are pushed up in the draft because of the position they play. No one would have expected Christian Ponder to be the No. 12 pick, and Andy Dalton was not projected to go in the second round.
Foles is more talented than both of those quarterbacks, and many teams are still in need of a quarterback.
Jared Crick Is Still Going To Be an Early Second-Round Draft Pick
42 of 50Many fell in love with Jared Crick's versatility, but after suffering a season-ending injury, he has fallen off the map a bit. At 6'6", 290 pounds, Crick can play any position in a 4-3 defense or 5-tech in a 3-4 scheme.
Many defenses love this type of versatility, and Crick is talented enough to warrant a first-round pick. Crick's injury will certainly hurt his stock, so he will probably go in the second round instead of the first.
The New England Patriots Will Draft Ryan Broyles
43 of 50Whenever I watch Ryan Broyles, I think he looks like a New England Patriot. Broyles is undersized at 5'10" and 190 pounds, but he is quick and shifty with good hands. Broyles did recently tear his ACL, and that will certainly hurt his stock.
Broyles returned punts at Oklahoma, and he is incredibly similar to Wes Welker. Welker is beginning to age, and though Broyles won't be ready immediately, the Broyles could eventually replace Welker as New England's underneath receiver.
Brandon Weeden’s Age Will Knock Him out of the First Three Rounds.
44 of 50A former baseball player, Brandon Weeden got a late start on his college football career and is already 28 years old. Weeden will turn 29 early in the 2012 NFL season, and his age will scare off teams from drafting him in the first few rounds of the draft.
Weeden is talented and possesses above-average arm strength. The 6'4", 218-pounder is still raw, though, and there won't be time to develop his skills. By the time Weeden sits for a few years, he will have just a few years left.
Someone Will Take Devon Still Too Early
45 of 50At 6'5", 310 pounds, Devon Still is a fantastic athlete with superb strength. The Penn State star was a prized recruit and failed to contribute until this year. In 2011, Still has made plays for the Nittany Lions, but he still struggles frequently.
It seems like Still should dominate, and he does at times. However, he is far too inconsistent, and his motor tends to run hot and cold. Some team will fall in love with Still's abilities and potential, and they will take him far too soon.
Shea McClellin Is Going To Be Taken Earlier Than Expected
46 of 50A 6'3", 255-pounder, Shea McClellin is a perfect fit in a 3-4 defense. The Boise State defensive end shows great burst and frequently makes big plays, but no one seems to talk about him.
McClellin is a high-motor player with above-average athleticism and pass-rushing ability. He offers an NFL team the complete package, and though people aren't talking about him as a first- or second-round pick, he will end up as one.
The Minnesota Vikings Will Trade Back
47 of 50The Minnesota Vikings are going to pick no earlier than third, and they will miss out on the player they need: Matt Kalil. The Vikings could certainly use Morris Claiborne, but their secondary isn't dreadful and they would be better off trading back.
With many teams looking to acquire Robert Griffin III, there will be a huge trade market for the third pick. Minnesota could move back and still add a good offensive lineman in the top 10, and they would add more picks in the process.
Teams Picking in the Second Half of the Top 10 Are Not Going To Be Happy
48 of 50The 2012 draft features an incredibly talented top five players, but after those five, there is a huge drop-off in talent. The teams that draft Andrew Luck, Matt Kalil, Robert Griffin III and Morris Claiborne will be ecstatic. The teams that miss out on those four and Trent Richardson will be furious.
Dre Kirkpatrick might be the sixth-best player in the draft, and though he plays cornerback like Claiborne, he is not nearly as good. In theory, a team could pick Kirkpatrick just one pick after Claiborne was selected, and they won't be happy about it.
The Selection of Rueben Randle Will Surprise People
49 of 50Despite playing at LSU, Rueben Randle has largely been ignored. At 6'4", 208 pounds, Randle isn't exactly a burner, but he is big and physical. Randle possesses great catching ability and will be selected in the first two rounds of the draft.
At some point in the draft, a team will take Randle over a more highly valued prospect (by the media and fans, at least). Many evaluators love wideouts with Randle's skill set, and at least one team will take Randle before his projected range.
This Draft Will Be Dominated by Offensive Linemen
50 of 50Matt Kalil seems to be destined for the No. 2 pick of the draft, and other offensive linemen will follow shortly after. The offensive line is one of the few solid units in the first round of the 2012 draft, and many of them will be drafted early.
With a ton of teams in need of offensive line help, teams will be wheeling and dealing to acquire the prized offensive linemen. Then when there are only a few highly ranked offensive linemen available, teams will panic and move up for one of them.
There are going to be quite a few trades in the 2012 draft, and most of them will revolve around offensive linemen.
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