US Open Tennis 2021 Men's Final Prediction and Prize Money

Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev will face off in the U.S. Open final on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium in Queens, New York.

Djokovic is looking for the first calendar-year Grand Slam since Steffi Graf in 1988 and the first on the men's side since Rod Laver in 1969. He's also searching for his record-breaking 21st men's Grand Slam singles title.

Meanwhile, Medvedev is looking for his first major title. He's made the finals twice before, losing to Rafael Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open and Djokovic in this year's Australian Open. He is a 12-time ATP singles winner who has three victories to his name this year.

The winner will take home $2.5 million, and the runner-up will earn $1.25 million.

On paper, Djokovic looks like the man to beat. He's the more decorated player and has spent a record 336 weeks as the World No. 1.

However, a potential upset could be brewing.

There's one big reason to believe Medvedev will beat Djokovic—he'll be far fresher when the two face off Sunday.

Medvedev's last match was a straight-set win over Felix Auger-Aliassime on Friday afternoon. Djokovic needed five sets to beat Alexander Zverev on Friday evening.

Tournament-wise, Djokovic has dropped the first set in each of his last four matches. Only one of his U.S. Open matches has finished in straight sets, and that was a second-round victory over Tallon Griekspoor.

It's been a bit of a grueling run for Djokovic at times, who hasn't had it all that easy thus far. Overall, the 34-year-old has played 24 sets of tennis since Aug. 31.

Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Medvedev has had a far easier time in this tournament, winning all of his matches by straight sets save for one, a four-set quarterfinal win over Botic van de Zandschulp. He hasn't even needed a tiebreaker yet.

He also said Friday after his straight-set win that he hadn't been playing his best:

That's a scary proposition for a player who is simply on fire right now. He won the Rogers Cup and reached the Western & Southern Open semifinals before his current U.S. Open run.

Djokovic does have the head-to-head edge over the Russian, winning 5-of-8 matches overall and 4-of-6 on hard courts. He also beat Medvedev by straight sets in the 2021 Australian Open finals.

But the issue is that Djokovic likely can't afford to find himself on the ropes against one of the best players in the world.

Djokovic has gotten away with that thus far, to the point where it almost feels like he's playing with fire.

However, Medvedev is the best opponent that he'll have faced yet. The Russian can take advantage of any opening and put Djokovic away.

The guess here is that Medvedev pulls off the upset and earns his first Grand Slam in the process.

Look for Djokovic to drop the first set before battling back to win the second. The two will trade sets again before Medvedev finds enough energy to put Djokovic away in the fifth.