NFL Playoff Picture: Breaking Down AFC Wild Card Tiebreakers

The NFC wild-card race is over, and the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions have won. It was fun while it lasted.

As for the AFC wild-card race...well, suffice it to say it's a little messy.

The primary area of concern is the conference's second wild-card spot, which is currently held by the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals. But the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans and New York Jets are all 8-7, and they can take the AFC's second wild card from the Bengals if the right chips fall in the right places.

If you want to know how each team can win the wild card and how all the tiebreakers work, read on.

Note: ESPN.com has a full breakdown of the assorted playoff scenarios, but not of the tiebreakers.

Cincinnati Bengals

If the Bengals want to win the wild card, all they have to do is beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. That will run their record to 10-6, which will put them out of reach of their pursuers.

If the Bengals lose, they'll need one of two combinations to take place.

One is a Jets defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins and a Raiders defeat at the hands of the San Diego Chargers. The Bengals will be 9-7, and the Jets and Raiders will be 8-8. Simple enough. 

The Bengals can also get in if a Jets loss is combined with a Denver Broncos defeat at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. This will only apply if the Raiders beat the Chargers, thus winning the AFC West.

So even if the Bengals lose, they're in moderately good shape. They probably don't want to risk it, but they could ask for worse fates.

Oakland Raiders

First of all, the Raiders can win the AFC West if they beat the Chargers and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs. That's the route to the playoffs they would prefer, as it would allow them to play host in the wild-card round.

But if the Raiders and Broncos both win, the Raiders will be hoping for one of two different outcomes.

If the Raiders win, and the Bengals and Titans both lose, the Raiders are in. They'll have the same record as the Bengals, but they'll get in thanks to their winning percentage in conference games.

The Raiders can also get in if they win, the Bengals lose, and the Jets win. They would have a tiebreak over the Jets and Titans because of their strength of victory, and the aforementioned tiebreak over Cincinnati would also hold.

So slightly more complicated, but the Raiders could also ask for worse fates.

New York Jets

Unfortunately for the Jets, they need a lot of things to go right to make the playoffs.

The Jets can get in on two different scenarios, but the one thing they have in common is that both require the Jets to beat the Dolphins in Week 17. If the Bengals, Titans and Raiders all lose, the Jets will get win a tiebreaker over Cincinnati because of their win percentage in conference games.

The Jets can also get in if the Bengals, Titans and Broncos lose. In that situation, the kicker would be Oakland winning the AFC West.

Beating the Dolphins should be easy enough for the Jets, but they need an awful lot of losing to happen to move on to the postseason. They may not be so lucky.

Tennessee Titans

I'm not gonna lie, Titans fans. The Titans are also going to need some help in order to make the playoffs.

Naturally, they need to beat the Houston Texans on the road, which is going to be much easier said than done.

The first Houston scenario involves the Texans getting in thanks to a Bengals loss, a Jets win, and a Raiders loss. The Titans would win a tiebreak over the Jets thanks to their winning percentage in common games, and would win a tiebreak over the Bengals thanks to their winning percentage in conference games.

The second Houston scenario has the Texans getting in thanks to a Bengals loss, a Jets win, and a Broncos loss. The same tiebreakers as the above scenario would apply, with Oakland winning the AFC West.

The Texans can also get in on a Bengals loss, a Jets loss, a Raiders win, and a Broncos win. In this case, the Titans would earn a tiebreak over the Raiders because of their win percentage in common games.

All of this is easy enough, right?

I hope so. I plan on randomly showing up at your home and/or place of business tomorrow and quizzing you on it. You better be ready.

And don't think I won't do it.