AFC Playoff Picture: Ranking Every Postseason-Eligible Team

There are 10 teams, at this writing, still angling for playoff spots in the AFC. With two weeks remaining, the playoff picture is still quite changeable, considering that the West division is still up in the air and the second wild-card spot has yet to be set in stone.

In the following slides, I rank the postseason-eligible AFC teams from least to most likely to make a convincing run at a Super Bowl title this year.

No. 10: Tennessee Titans (7-7)

The Tennessee Titans are one of three 7-7 AFC teams with an outside shot of snagging the second of two wild-card playoff berths.

They're already out of the running to win the South division, with the Houston Texans clinching that honor two weeks ago, but they could still end up in the postseason depending on how they, and other teams on the bubble, perform in their two remaining games.

The Titans have been the model of inconsistency this year, never stringing together more than two wins at a time and thus lacking any kind of real momentum that could have propelled them into the playoff picture.

Though the schedule is in their favor with two divisional games remaining for the team, and the Titans do have tiebreaker advantage over both the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers, they're still not strong enough as a team to make it beyond a single game if they do end up with the conference's remaining wild-card spot.

No. 9: Oakland Raiders (7-7)

Considering the myriad of injury issues the Oakland Raiders have had on offense this season, the fact that they're at 7-7 headed into Week 16 is impressive, indeed.

It's not a good enough record for the team to control their own destiny as far as the playoffs are concerned, however, and it's going to take a lot for them to end the year as either a wild-card entrant to the postseason or to grab hold of the top spot in the still-up-for-grabs AFC West.

They have two divisional games remaining on their schedule, at least, with the Kansas City Chiefs up first and the San Diego Chargers rounding out the year. Winning both of them, in concert with two Denver Broncos losses, would have the Raiders atop the division and in the playoffs.

If that happens, however, the Raiders just aren't built to compete with the other top teams around the AFC. They have a glut of talent, to be sure, but with so many injuries and personnel shifts, it's looking like it will take the team another year to really come together at full strength if they are to be one of the most dominant teams in a tough conference.

No. 8: Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

Of all the teams on the playoff bubble in the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals have the best shot of grabbing a wild-card berth. If they do, three of the four teams in the AFC North would reach the postseason, not a common feat to be sure.

However, should they make it, they're almost guaranteed to struggle. The Bengals have been one of the season's most surprising teams, putting up the rare successful season behind a rookie quarterback.

That quarterback, Andy Dalton, has been helped immeasurably by another rookie, wide receiver A.J. Green, a player guaranteed to make the turn into elite status as early as his sophomore season.

What the Bengals lack, however, is experience. While they've strung together impressive streaks of wins this year, they've yet to beat any of the league's tougher teams.

All of their losses have come against teams that have made the postseason (save the Denver Broncos, who are in control of their division but could still lose hold), and they'll be seeing one of them in the first round of the playoffs should they make it.

While the Bengals have many necessary components in place, they'll need another year—and another good showing in the NFL draft—to enter into the discussion as one of the AFC's best teams.

No. 7: San Diego Chargers (7-7)

Like usual, the San Diego Chargers were preseason favorites to not only go to but win the Super Bowl this year. And like usual, they've failed to meet expectations.

A combination of poor coaching, a weaker defense than usual and an uncharacteristically high number of mistakes committed by quarterback Philip Rivers saw the team lose six straight games in Weeks 7-12 that all but doomed their playoff hopes.

But now, with the most recent loss by the Denver Broncos, the AFC West is up for grabs and the Chargers are still in play to earn the division's top spot and with it a playoff berth.

The Chargers are on a three-game win streak that has seen them return to the form that makes them perennial playoff favorites.

In those three weeks, they outscored the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens by a combined 109-38 and their offense is now in the top six in passing yards and top 15 in rushing yards on the season.

They're a different, inspired team with some serious momentum. Should they win out while the Broncos and Oakland Raiders fall twice (the latter playing San Diego in Week 17), they'll be a dangerous team in the playoffs.

However, I can't in good conscience rank them higher among the AFC's postseason-eligible teams simply because that terrible Chargers team of midseason could rear its ugly head at any time.

No. 6: Denver Broncos (8-6)

The Denver Broncos have control of the AFC West, but it's not an iron grip. With another loss, they have just a tiebreaker advantage over the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers and if they lose their two remaining games, won't likely see the playoffs at all.

Denver has had quite the strange season. After benching former starting quarterback Kyle Orton in favor of Tim Tebow, the team won six straight games before falling in Week 15 to the New England Patriots.

Tebow was given the job just to appease the fans, but the improbable success that followed from the move has secured him the starting position for at least the remainder of the year and potentially into the future.

Tebow, of course, isn't solely responsible for the Broncos' success while he's been the starter. The team boasts the top running offense in the league (while ranking just 31st in passing yards), has a strong defense and their special teams play has been remarkable.

While he's helped his team thus far—or rather, not harmed them—the story is going to be different in the postseason. Tebow has gotten a lot of criticism about his passing game, from disparaging comments about his throwing motion to his inability to complete more than half of his passes.

This will become a major liability to the team in the postseason, simply because of the elite offenses they'll have to match in production and the elite defenses that won't be so easy to run against. Tebow will benefit from postseason experience should his team get there, but he won't find much success this year.

No. 5: Houston Texans (10-4)

The Houston Texans have done something they've never done before as a franchise—earned a playoff spot and won the AFC South.

They managed these feats despite suffering some of the more devastating injuries that could have befallen a team in 2011.

They lost defensive starter Mario Williams earlier this season with a torn pectoral muscle, star wideout Andre Johnson has been in and out all year with a hamstring problem, and both starting quarterback Matt Schaub and his backup Matt Leinart have both been placed on injured reserve with their respective season-ending injures.

Despite all that, they've managed to keep winning, thanks to their Arian Foster-led run game and their conservative passing offense, handled well by third-round rookie quarterback T.J. Yates, who has been unexpectedly thrust into the starting role.

However, Yates' youth and inexperience will be the team's biggest Achilles' heel in the playoffs this year.

The risk the team is taking by starting him was made clear in Week 15's loss to the Carolina Panthers, when the Panthers defense successfully shut down Houston's run game, forced Yates to throw and trapped him into making mistakes and throwing picks.

He should see a similar strategy—and thus have similar struggles—when the team hits the postseason against some of the NFL's very best teams. They might snag themselves a single playoff win, but they just don't have what it takes to win, let alone reach, the Super Bowl this year.

No. 4: New York Jets (8-6)

Currently, the New York Jets have control of the second AFC wild-card playoff berth, but it's still very much up in the air whether or not they can hold onto it in the remaining two weeks of the regular season.

They're just too inconsistent to trust, but they crack the top five of AFC playoff teams simply because of their recent experience in winning postseason games.

For the past two years, the Jets have reached (and lost) the AFC Championship game and it's certain that Rex Ryan's squad has winning that ever-elusive game as their top priority as the regular season heads to the end.

At least the Jets' inconsistency is a bit more desirable than the kind exhibited by the Tennessee Titans. The Jets have been streaky this year, winning two games, losing two, winning three, losing three and so on.

They've lost their most recent game, snapping a three-game win streak, and common wisdom says that they'll lose this week against the New York Giants, if they follow the pattern they've constructed thus far.

Losing should be the last thing in the Jets' mind this week if they truly are a strong playoff contender. They'll need to win this week to secure that wild-card spot and they'll need to win their final game if only just to prove they have momentum on their side heading into their first postseason game.

They have a track record of playoff success that makes me rank them high, however, there's still much to be desired from the New York Jets and they are likely to find themselves struggling at some point in January.

No. 3: Baltimore Ravens (10-4)

The Baltimore Ravens are about to head to the playoffs for the fourth season in a row. In the past three, they've gotten no farther than the AFC Championship game and in the last two, lost in the divisional round.

Though they have a glut of playoff experience, they haven't yet reached a Super Bowl during quarterback Joe Flacco's tenure. Much of that has to do with Flacco, who generally can manage games well but is prone to mistakes when he tries to—or is forced to—pass the ball too much.

Considering that a number of the conference's top teams are aware of this major Ravens flaw, look for them to exploit it in the playoffs, most notably by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are the Ravens' biggest rivals in the league and have been defeated by Baltimore in both of their regular-season meetings this year.

Pittsburgh is not just out for redemption, they're also out for their fourth Super Bowl appearance and third win with Ben Roethlisberger under center. If the Ravens can dispatch the Steelers in the playoffs, they'll be in a great position to head to Indianapolis in February.

It's just a matter of whether Baltimore has what it takes to best a team as explosive on offense as the New England Patriots. As of now, it doesn't seem like they'll be able to, but with the playoffs a season unto itself, anything is possible.

No. 2: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)

Though the Pittsburgh Steelers have fallen twice this year to the Baltimore Ravens, they outrank the Ravens when it comes to talking about AFC playoff teams, simply based on experience.

Since Ben Roethlisberger joined the team in 2004, the Steelers have missed the playoffs just twice. They've been to three Super Bowls, winning two. Regardless of what the Steelers have looked like in the regular season, they've been especially tough in the playoffs, fully embracing the "whole new season" aspect of the situation.

At 10-4 and unlikely to surpass the Ravens in the AFC North, the Steelers will likely be the AFC's fifth seed in the playoffs. While they probably won't have home-field advantage this year, they've had experience winning playoff games on the road, which is one of the hardest tests a team can face.

Should the Steelers make it all the way to the conference championship game, then they're heavy favorites to appear in the Super Bowl for their second consecutive year.

They're scary, they're tough and they only get tougher as the season wears on. There are few more intimidating teams in the postseason, period, and it's going to be hard to stop them now that they've clinched a playoff berth.

No. 1: New England Patriots (11-3)

The New England Patriots are no strangers to the postseason themselves. They have the AFC East locked down, are likely going to remain in control of the AFC's top seed through the final two weeks of the regular season and will thus be playing all of their playoff games at home this year.

The Patriots boast one of the most productive and highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, with just the New Orleans Saints racking up more passing yards per game on average.

Quarterback Tom Brady and his many weapons, most notably tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and wide receiver Wes Welker, have been carving up defenses strong and weak all season long and should only continue to do so come January and beyond.

New England is a heavy favorite to represent the AFC in this year's Super Bowl. The only thing standing in their way, aside from their looming opponents, is their defense, specifically their secondary.

They're giving up nearly 300 passing yards per game and have allowed opponents to score 20 or more points in all but five games this year.

In the regular season, teams have found a way to stop the Patriots' high-powered offense, most notably the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants. Pressuring Brady and keeping him off the field while simultaneously exploiting that weak secondary is the key to defeating the Patriots.

Thus that struggling secondary might hurt them in the playoffs. However, if they can maintain the stellar offensive production they've managed through the vast majority of the regular season, New England is going to be practically unstoppable in this year's AFC playoffs.