NFL Week 16 Predictions: Projecting the Week's Top RB Performances
For us, the NFL season seems painfully short, now that we're on the precipice of its end.
But for running backs, the season likely seems endless, especially for those backs who have been responsible, intentionally or not, for the majority of their respective teams' productions.
However, there's one thing of note about those running backs—tired or not, they still manage to make big plays, gain major yardage and, ideally, help their teams along to wins.
In the following slides, I detail four rushers who should have excellent showings in Week 16.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans)
1 of 4It's not just the fact that the Tennessee Titans defense is susceptible to opposing rushers (they're giving up 123 yards on the ground per game on average, good for 23rd in the league) that bodes well for Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew's potential for a big game this week.
Though it certainly helps, it's Jones-Drew himself and how well he's been playing all season long that will result in him having a good outing on Saturday.
Jones-Drew has rushed for under 80 yards just once this season and has his third consecutive 1,300-yard season with two games to spare.
On an offensively challenged Jaguars team, Jones-Drew is the one shining beacon of light.
He's second in the league when it comes to total yards from scrimmage, and he's the league's leading rusher through 15 weeks with no other back likely to catch him before the season is over.
Valuable in both the passing and running games, look for Jones-Drew to have well over 100 all-purpose yards this week, and perhaps a touchdown as well.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (at Dallas Cowboys)
2 of 4There's little doubt that Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy is elite.
He's having the best season of his young career, he has the fourth-most all-purpose yards in the league at 1,579, and he has the second-highest rushing yardage at 1,274.
Furthermore, he has 20 touchdowns this season, 11 more than he had in 2010.
However, these numbers could be even higher if the Eagles and head coach Andy Reid committed to running the ball more consistently.
Some weeks, McCoy has seen 25 or 30 total touches, and others, 20 or fewer.
This week, against the Dallas Cowboys, McCoy should factor heavily into his team's plans. Though the Cowboys defense has been historically stingy against the run this season, giving up just 98.1 yards per game on average, the first time these two teams met this season, McCoy rushed 30 times for 185 yards and two touchdowns.
McCoy is easily the most consistent member of the Eagles offense. With Philadelphia still statistically in the running for a playoff berth—indeed, for an NFC East title—the team needs to bring out its big guns this week against Dallas.
McCoy is definitely the Eagles' biggest gun at this point, and he should have yet another monster outing with Philadelphia's season on the line.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cleveland Browns)
3 of 4The Cleveland Browns defense ranks 31st in opposing rushing yards allowed, averaging 145.4 per game.
At the same time, Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice is averaging 77.6 yards on the ground per week and has five games with more than 100 rushing yards—including a 204-yard effort in Week 13, the last time these two teams met.
That's music to the Ravens' ears—they can win, put up some serious yardage and not have to rely on quarterback Joe Flacco's arm to do it.
In terms of yardage, Rice is the best overall back in the NFL this season, leading the league with 1,734 yards from scrimmage, 1,086 of them coming on the ground.
Rice is also invaluable to the Ravens' passing game. He has caught 71 passes for 648 yards and two scores thus far this year as an important safety valve for the up-and-down Flacco.
Though it seems far-fetched that Rice will repeat his Week 13 performance when the Browns come to town for the two teams' second meeting, the fact that the Ravens haven't lost at home plus the knowledge of what he accomplished just three short weeks ago makes it more likely that he will come close to that huge number on Saturday.
Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. St. Louis Rams)
4 of 4For the Pittsburgh Steelers' Rashard Mendenhall, the matchup couldn't be any better.
The St. Louis Rams and their league-worst rush defense are coming to town in a week when starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is likely to sit.
The Rams are giving up an average of 153.4 rushing yards per game this season, while Mendenhall himself has only come close to that number once this season, with a 146-yard outing in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That was also Mendenhall's only 100-or-more-yard rushing day on the year, but he's more than likely to earn his second one this week against that weak Rams defense.
Mendenhall's production has been low this year for two reasons.
One is that the Steelers offensive line has struggled throughout the season to effectively run-block, limiting Mendenhall's chances to pull down big gains.
Secondly, Pittsburgh has almost fully transitioned to a pass-heavy offense, and an elite one at that, and doesn't need to rely on Mendenhall's—or any back's—legs as much as they once did.
But with Roethlisberger sidelined with a high ankle sprain that will probably keep him off the field until the playoffs, it's Mendenhall's time to shine.
Against the Rams, he will—big time.
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