2011 Bowl Predictions: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Preview

The last few years have seen many achievements and changes for the Texas Christian program.  The program has won at least 10 games for the last four years.  They have had two undefeated regular seasons and capped off last year’s perfect season with a historic win at the Rose Bowl. 

The changes have come quickly over the past year and a half.  First, there was the move from the Mountain West to the Big East during the first round of the current realignment craze.  Then they decided to move again—leaving the Big East without ever playing a game in the conference—and joined the more geographically friendly Big 12. 

So, for their final game as a member of the MWC, they’ll be playing in a familiar place.  For the third time in the last six years, the Horned Frogs will end their season in San Diego at the Poinsettia Bowl.  The last two trips have been successful, with a blowout of Northern Illinois in 2006 and a narrow one-point victory over Boise State in 2008. 

This year’s TCU squad still won 10 games, but had a couple of losses that ultimately led to them to fall out of the Top 25 for a time this season.  The year started with a wild loss to Baylor and Heisman winner Robert Griffin III.  Then they had a big misstep and lost their rivalry game to SMU in overtime.

Since that loss, however, the Horned Frogs have been on a roll, winning seven in a row. Their one-point win on the road at Boise State propelled them to the MWC title.

Their opponent in the final game (before heading off to greener pastures), has been on just as much of a roll as TCU.  Louisiana Tech has been playing very well, winning seven in a row after starting the season 1-4.  The most impressive thing about the winning streak is that five of those wins came on the road, including victories at Utah State and Mississippi.  The hot streak was good enough to give the Bulldogs their first bowl appearance in three seasons.

So, will TCU ride off to the BIG 12 with one last victory as a member of the MWC or will Louisiana Tech get a big victory and carry major momentum into 2012?  Read on for the preview of the 2011 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Texas Christian Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense

As usual, the TCU offense has put up plenty of yards and points this year. They have done it with a new face under center.  Casey Pachall has been very productive in his first year as a starter.  He finished seventh in the country in passing efficiency. 

He’s had help with a couple of running backs that have given the Horned Frogs the 20th-best rushing attack this season.  Ed Wesley and Waymon James each average around 70 yards per game. They add balance to an offense that finished ninth in the country in scoring, at just under 42 points per game. 

That is going to prove to be quite a challenge for a Louisiana Tech. The Tech defense has been good, but has given up a ton of passing yards.  They finished 96th in pass defense and, if Pachall is playing well, it could be a long night for the Bulldogs.

Edge: Texas Christian

Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Texas Christian Defense

The Bulldogs have averaged over 30 points and almost 400 yards per game this season, and that has been mainly because of the passing offense.  Led by QB Nick Isham and WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech must find a way to keep the Horned Frog defense off balance. 

TCU’s defense has had a couple of slip-ups this year, giving 50 points to Baylor, 40 to SMU and 35 to Boise State.  But they have had played well in general, giving up less than 14 points five times.  In their other game in Qualcomm Stadium this year, they gave up only 14 points to San Diego State. 

The TCU defense is the better unit of the two in this game.

Edge: Texas Christian

Special Teams

There is a player on each side who might play a big role in this game.  For Louisiana Tech, punter Ryan Allen won the Ray Guy Award as the best punter in the nation.  He averaged over 46 yards per kick and will be a key factor in getting Louisiana Tech out of some sticky situations. 

On the other side, Greg McCoy has been one of the best returners in the nation, averaging almost 32 yards per kickoff return.  He’s a big play threat every time he touches the ball.  If he breaks a big one here, that would be the last thing that Louisiana Tech needs.

Edge: Even

Coaching

Gary Patterson continues to be one of the best coaches in the nation and has grown the Horned Frogs program to a national presence from the days when the team was back in the Western Athletic Conference.  Having his sixth 10-win season in the last seven years shows that, even though he’s been in four different conferences (and soon to be a fifth) in his 12 seasons, he has built a stable and winning program that is ready to step up to a big-time BCS conference. 

Sonny Dykes is on a nice run after a shaky start to his second season with the Bulldogs. But he's gotten them to a bowl game. He and the team should benefit from the extra practices heading into 2012.

Edge: Texas Christian

This and That

This is starting to feel like a second home to TCU.  They should have plenty of fans in San Diego.  This should be a big help as they know what to expect from playing so early in the bowl season. 

Louisiana Tech will be a little more rested since they finished their season a week earlier than TCU, which might help them since they are playing one of the early bowls.

Edge: Texas Christian

2011 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Texas Christian is just the better team here and has more talent. The team plays at a higher level.  The balance of running and passing will be too much for the Bulldogs to handle. 

McCoy will put them in great field position at least once and will help give them a successful send off to the Big 12.

Line: Texas Christian by 11

The Sports Mac Prediction: Texas Christian 38, Louisiana Tech 17