7 Remaining NFL Regular Season Games That Impact 2012 Draft Order

With only three weeks of NFL regular-season action left for the 2011 season, the fans of teams that are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs are starting to look ahead to the 2012 draft as a way to fix the areas of their team that needs to be addressed.

While the final draft order is far from set, and there is always the possibility that one of the eliminated teams can pull off an upset over a team in contention, we have isolated the seven remaining games in the regular season that will have the largest impact on the final draft order.

Why these seven games? Because each one is a game where both teams are already eliminated from the playoffs. The loser of each of these seven games takes one step closer towards securing their low draft spot, while the winning team will in some cases zoom up the draft board three spots or more with a single victory.

Current Pecking Order of First 12 Teams for 2012 Draft

Coming in to Week 15 play, here was the draft order for the 2012 Draft, according to ESPN Stats and Information based on the latest standings: 

1. Indianapolis Colts (0-13)
2. Minnesota Vikings (2-11)
3. St. Louis Rams (2-11)
4. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
5. Washington Redskins (4-9)
6. Cleveland Browns (4-9)
7. Miami Dolphins (4-9)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-8)
12. Buffalo Bills (5-8)

Note: There are only three other teams with losing records: Seattle (6-7), Arizona (6-7) and San Diego (6-7). They would be occupying slots 13-15.

Looking at the current standings there is a huge log jam at 4-9. The best pick of these teams belongs to Carolina at No. 4, but if they win a game, they could fall back to No. 10, which would result in a far different draft choice. There is one game upcoming that features two 4-9 teams, so there will be a lot at stake in that contest.

Game 1) Week 15: Cleveland (4-9) at Arizona (6-7)

This weekend, the Cleveland Browns (4-9) travel to play the Arizona Cardinals (6-7).

If Cleveland wins: They would fall out of the 4-9 pack, and drop down from No. 6 to No. 10. With their leverage of the two first-round picks due to the Atlanta trade last year, they might have to use both picks if they want to trade up into the top three slots.

If Arizona wins: Not as significant a drop, as they would fall out of their three-way tie in the 13-15 and join whatever teams are at 7-7. There are six teams we haven't included yet that are sitting there with a 7-6 record, so a win by Arizona could result in them tumbling down the draft board.

The six teams at 7-6 are: Dallas, Chicago, Tennessee, Cincinnati, New York Giants and Oakland.

Game 2) Week 15: Miami (4-9) at Buffalo (5-8)

The Miami Dolphins (4-9) visit the Buffalo Bills (5-8) this Sunday. They are fighting to avoid the basement of the AFC East, but the winner of this game will have obvious ramifications regarding the draft order.

If Miami wins: They would fall from No. 7 to at least No. 10 and possibly lower. The Dolphins would have swept Buffalo, they beat Kansas City but lost to Philadelphia.

If Buffalo wins: They would then fall out of the top 12 and into the group at 13-15. They did not play either Seattle or Arizona, but lost to San Diego.

Game 3) Week 16: Minnesota (2-11) at Washington (4-9)

In Week 16, the Minnesota Vikings (2-11) travel to Washington to face the Redskins (4-9).

If Minnesota wins: There is no other teams with three wins, so the Vikings would conceivably flip their draft spot from No. 2 to No. 3 with St. Louis taking over No. 2. That should still guarantee the Vikings a very good player to draft, but since they already have Christian Ponder, teams wanting to jump up to land their franchise quarterback will be calling the Vikings to see what it takes to trade away that pick.

If Washington wins: The Redskins stand to lose the most here with a win. Sitting at No. 5, they would plummet all the way down to No. 10, a five slot drop, which is big in the draft. We are talking about going from a Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin III down to Landry Jones, so this is of major consequence to the Redskins short-term future.

Game 4) Week 16: Tampa Bay (4-9) at Carolina (4-9)

In Week 16, the Tampa Bay Bucs travel to Carolina to face the Panthers in a battle of teams that are currently tied at 4-9 and are part of the six-team logjam at 4-9. The winner of this game obviously falls out of the logjam and will be looking at the pick at No. 10 or lower, while the loser of this game cements their lofty draft pick status even more.

I will have a special eye out for this game just to see which team wants this game more and is playing to win. From all reports, it appears that Tampa Bay is still sold on quarterback Josh Freeman, despite his performance being rather spotty, and we all know that the Panthers are loving Cam Newton.

Game 5) Week 17: Indianapolis (0-13) at Jacksonville (4-9)

Now we are looking at the final week of the season. It is conceivable that our standings will be all messed up between now and then, as there is that threat that some of our top 12 draft-pick teams will pull off a major upset and beat a contender down the stretch.

But we have three final games in Week 17 that feature two teams with losing records, so there is plenty of draft-order intrigue surrounding each of them. First up is the Indianapolis Colts (0-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9).

If Indianapolis wins: Their draft spot at No. 1 appears to be secure. The way they are playing, it is hard to imagine them winning two of their final three games, to fall into a potential tie in the standings with either Minnesota or St. Louis. The latest reports are that head coach Jim Caldwell needs to win two of the final three games to save his job. Humm, let me see, save Coach Caldwell or draft Andrew Luck? You figure that one out on your own. 

If Jacksonville wins: They are currently slotted at No. 8 and are part of the logjam at 4-9. A win here would drop the Jaguars down to the No. 10 spot or possibly lower. With the latest concerns being expressed over Blaine Gabbert, the Jaguars might actually be looking to re-invest in the quarterback spot with their first round pick, so dropping any lower could be of major consequence.

If the Colts have lost in both Week 15 and Week 16, it is not out of the question that they rally the troops in Week 17 to at least win one game, and not go 0-16 for the year. They still can then draft Andrew Luck and not go down in infamy as one of the teams that lost every game on the year.

Game 6) Week 17: Washington (4-9) at Philadelphia (5-8)

The Washington Redskins (4-9) close out the 2011 season traveling to face NFC East division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles (5-8). The Eagles are probably more than eager to put their "dream team" into sleep mode and ponder happier days. This game will probably determine the cellar-dwellar for the NFC East so there is something at stake there as well.

If Washington wins: This marks the second time that we have seen the Redskins in this presentation. If they drop the Week 16 contest against the Minnesota Vikings then that means they have probably mailed in the rest of the season. The game at Philadelphia would be the type where the team buses are already running at half time. If they beat the Vikings, then they would have already dropped out of the top 10 for a draft pick, so then they are playing the Eagles for pride.

If Philadelphia wins: They are currently in the 13-15 mix, so a win doesn't have huge ramifications as far as we know. If the Eagles, however, close out the season with three win, they go from 5-8 to 8-8. We already listed the six teams that are at 7-6, so it is possible that the Eagles could tumble down the draft board to the late teens to No. 20 or lower.

Game 7) Week 17: Seattle (6-7) at Arizona (6-7)

The Seattle Seahawks (6-7) close out the season with a road game at the Arizona Cardinals (6-7) that features two NFC West teams that have playing some pretty good football as of late. If you went back to five or six weeks ago, you might have conceded that both teams were headed for a top 10 draft pick, but instead they have been racking up a number of wins and showing steady improvement.

Since both teams are 6-7, they are dangerously close to that group of six teams at 7-6, so the winner of this game could easily be joining that group of six teams to fall down into the late teens or No. 20 range. The losing team will be conceivably around No. 15 in the draft. Not a major change, because this should be another quality draft, so finding a good player from 15 - 20 should not prove to be overly difficult.

Of course, I suppose that depends on if you agree that James Carpenter was a good draft pick in the first round last year. I should just leave that whole issue alone, but we will have many more articles to discuss the merits of draft picks later on.

That concludes the presentation. You can refer to this article, and update the standings on your own as the final three weeks roll along, to see how these seven games will ultimately change the draft order for the first 12 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft.