NFL Week 15 Predictions: Home Underdogs Guaranteed To Cover the Spread

While home-field advantage is often an important factor in the NFL, it doesn't always have a big influence on the oddsmakers. More often than not it has some sort of effect on the line, but when the definitively better team is on the road, they are the favorite more often than not.

There are a handful of road favorites in Week 15, but many of them are on shaky ground with regards to that distinction. While I'm not going to suggest that the Kansas City Chiefs will cover at home against the Green Bay Packers, here are three home underdogs who will cover.

Buffalo Bills (+1.5)

Whether the Buffalo Bills play at home, on the road or on Mars, they aren't going to be the favorite too often at this point. That is certainly the case this week as they are 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Miami Dolphins. Since starting 5-2 the Bills have lost six straight games as a myriad of injuries as well as poor play from the defense have plagued them. Miami isn't all that great in its own right with a record of 4-9, although the Dolphins have won four of their past six games.

The Dolphins beat the Bills handily at home about a month ago, but Miami has undergone some changes, as head coach Tony Sparano was fired after last week's loss and Todd Bowles has taken over as the interim head man. Also, quarterback Matt Moore may be forced to miss the game with a neck injury. This would mean that former Bill J.P. Losman would get the start. The Bills have generally played excellent at home this season and with an energized crowd present for a rivalry game, I think it will spur them to victory.

San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

Following a 4-1 start the San Diego Chargers looked to be well on their way to reclaiming the top spot in the AFC West. The Chargers proceeded to lose six straight games and were all but dead and buried. The Bolts have rebounded with two straight wins, however, and may be hitting their stride for their signature December swoon. It won't be easy to continue that, though, as they host the 10-3 Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

The Ravens will certainly want to win as they are in a battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North, but the Chargers will undoubtedly be the more desperate team. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has been unbelievably good in the month of December over the course of his career, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him have a great game against the dominant Baltimore defense. I think San Diego will pumped for this game at home and I think the defense in particular will step up and hold the inconsistent Ravens offense in check.

Denver Broncos (+7.5)

The Denver Broncos have won seven of eight games since quarterback Tim Tebow took over the starting job and they have played inspired defense while winning many of those games in the final seconds or in overtime. Despite that, the Broncos will be 7.5-point underdogs at home against the New England Patriots. Nobody will argue with the fact that quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots offense are superior to Denver's, but there is reason to believe the Broncos can keep it close.

For one, New England's defense is extremely bad, particularly against the pass, so this could mark Tebow's best statistical game of the season. Also, Brady has struggled against teams that can pressure him like the New York Jets and New York Giants. Thanks to Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos may be able to do just that.

Finally, roughly 90 percent of the money has been bet on New England in Las Vegas, yet the line hasn't moved much. That seems a bit fishy to me, so I really like Denver's chances.