Arizona Diamondbacks: 2012 Projections, Part 1

The 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks proved to be an amazing story in Major League Baseball.  They finished with a record of 94-68, third best in their franchise history behind only the 98-win 2002 team and the 100-win 1999 team.

Finishing the season by winning seven of their last 10 games, the Diamondbacks entered the playoffs primed and ready for battle.  Though they fought hard, the team fell short in the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers, losing in five games.

Fear not, though, fans in the desert!  The feat you witnessed in 2011 appears to be more likely to happen once again in 2012.  

Taking a look at the team as constituted right now, I've decided to project how your eight starting positional players will perform in 2012 and what to expect of the Diamondbacks once October rolls around.

First Base: Paul Goldschmidt

Though it was great news hearing that Lyle Overbay re-signed with the Diamondbacks, I don't know if it's in the best interest of the team to roll him out as the starting first baseman in 2012.  

While the 24-year-old Goldschmidt only played in 48 games for the Diamondbacks in 2011, he put up enough impressive numbers to make me want to roll the dice on him at first base.

Have a look at his stats—in just 48 games and 156 at-bats, Goldschmidt managed to get 39 hits, 18 of which went for extra bases.  

He had eight home runs and 26 RBIs, which may not seem like much, but remember that was over the course of just 30 percent of the season.  

His batting line was decent, with an average of .205, an OBP of .333 and a SLG of .474 for an OPS of .808—pretty good for his first exposure to the big leagues.

Don't forget what he did in four games in the NLDS.  He came up huge, batting .438 with a .526 OBP, .813 SLG and and OPS that is off the charts at 1.339.  Sure, it was only four games and 16 at-bats, but two home runs and six RBIs in the clutch speaks volumes for what this kid is capable of.

Looking ahead, Goldschmidt may find himself in the NL Rookie of the Year race. 

I would not be the least bit surprised to see him post numbers that look like this—.285 BA, .387 OBP, .425 SLG for an OPS of .812 with 26 home runs and 86 RBIs.

Second Base: Aaron Hill

Being traded to Arizona was the best thing that could have happened to Aaron Hill in 2011.  Upon his arrival in the desert, his numbers skyrocketed.  Have a look.

TOR: 104 G, 396 AB, 38 R, 89 H, 6 HR, 45 RBI, .225 BA, .270 OBP, .313 SLG, 584 OPS

ARZ: 33 G, 124 AB, 23 R, 39 H, 2 HR, 16 RBI, .315 BA, .386 OBP, .492 SLG, .878 OPS

To say he has found a comfort zone may be a bit of an understatement.  

Once again, it is hard to project how a player will perform during the course of the full year in his new town, but looking at what  Hill accomplished in 33 games, one can surmise that good things surely are to come.

In the NLDS, Hill was also a key contributor in his five games.  He managed a .278 BA, .435 OBP, .444 SLG and an OPS of .879 in 18 at-bats.  

Being able to go through an entire spring training with his new team and develop chemistry with shortstop Stephen Drew will be key moving forward.

While Hill has seen a bit of a decline in his numbers over the past couple of seasons in Toronto, I think he will have a fine bounce-back year in Arizona and put up 16 home runs with 70 RBIs on the back of a .318 batting average, .386 OBP, .484 SLG and .870 OPS. 

Shortstop: Stephen Drew

Though hampered with injuries in 2011, Stephen Drew has consistently proven himself to be a steady, reliable, every-day shortstop for the Diamondbacks.  

You could make the case that if, perhaps Drew were able to play in the 2011 NLDS, the Snakes might have beaten the Brewers and moved on to the NLCS.

But this is not a time to look back, especially when the future is so bright.

Drew should be back and 100 percent healthy for the start of the 2012 season.  While only 28 years old, he is one of the veterans on this squad that some of the other talent will look to for leadership and I think he is the man to provide it.

His numbers have always been fairly consistent, as he is a career .270 hitter with some pop in his bat.  He is capable of driving in 15 or so home runs per season.  

The important part of his game will come with developing a dangerous tandem with Aaron Hill up the middle.  I have a feeling the Diamondbacks might have the best middle infield tandem in the National League once Opening Day rolls around.

I expect no surprises out of Drew in 2012—he'll bat in the .270 range, perhaps .280, with a .335 OBP and a .410 SLG to give him an OPS of .745.

Third Base: Ryan Roberts

While TatMan's regular season numbers were just "okay" in the postseason, he came up huge for the Diamondbacks, catapulting himself into baseball celebrity status.

His .249 BA, .341 OBP, .427 SLG and .768 OPS during the regular season won't win him any awards, even though they were fine numbers.  

It was the magic he brought in the NLDS that truly made him excellent.  In 20 at-bats, he hit .350 with an OBP of .350, a SLG of .700 and an OPS of 1.050 with 14 total bases.  

He was off-the-charts good for the Diamondbacks.

I would love to see him do this during the regular season.  His fielding is fine, and the rate in which he gets on base is fine as well.  I would just love to see Roberts get a higher batting average in 2012.  

With that will come more runs and RBIs, which will only help to strengthen this lineup from top to bottom.

In 2012, I think Roberts will bat .265 with a .375 OBP and a .455 SLG for an OPS of .830.  All three of the latter would be career highs for him.

Right Field: Justin Upton

It is no secret that I am very much a fan of Justin Upton.  I have drawn comparisons to him being similar to a young Barry Bonds.

I am holding true to that statement.

While his postseason was nothing short of disappointing in 2011—he batted a lowly .200 in 20 at-bats—I still believe 2012 will be his monster breakout year.

Upton is only 24 years old and will not turn 25 until August.  Having said that, I think we will see Upton put up numbers eerily similar to what Bonds did in 1990.  

In 2012, Upton will bat .315 with a .410 OBP and a .555 SLG for an OPS of .965.  He will drive in 33 home runs with 119 RBIs.  

He will be named to his third All-Star team, win his second Silver Slugger award, his first Gold Glove and will be the 2012 NL MVP.

Center Field: Chris Young

Chris Young is a player that has historically underwhelmed me during the regular season, but in his three postseason stints with the Diamondbacks, he has been a beast.

If Arizona can make it through the season without losing any games care of his career .240 batting average, Young is a player I would definitely want on my team in the postseason.  

His numbers are huge there.

In 12 career postseason games for the Diamondbacks and 43 at-bats, Young has a .326 BA with a .453 OBP, .721 SLG and a 1.174 OPS with 31 total bases.  

I would take that type of production from every member of the team in a heartbeat.

So, don't expect much from Young during the regular season—probably just a .240/.320/.415/.735 line of production with decent fielding—but keep your eye on him in the 2012 NLDS.

Right Field: Gerardo Parra

Another youngster on this Diamondbacks team, Parra, 24 years of age, has managed to put up impressive numbers in his three years of service in Arizona.

In short, I like him a lot.  In 2011, Parra showed continued improvement in his game, putting up career highs in home runs (eight), stolen bases (15), average (.292), OBP (.357), SLG (.427), OPS (.784) and total bases (190).  

The future is bright for Parra, even if his 2011 NLDS was not.  

I expect to see more development out of the young left fielder as the season progresses in 2012.  He may, in fact, be the hardest player to gauge next season.  

While I am not sure if he will hit .300, I don't think it is far-fetched to see him bat .290 once again.  His OBP, SLG and OPS are all really up in the air, but I think he'll finish somewhere close to .340/.400/.740.

Catcher: Miguel Montero

Coming off the heels of his first All-Star selection in 2011, Montero has been considered one of the best catchers in baseball since his arrival in 2007.  

A career .992 fielder, Montero offers defense and offense, similar to a young Ivan Rodriguez.

2011 was a great season statistically for Montero.  He batted .282 for the Diamondbacks with a .351 OBP, .426 SLG and a .820 OPS.  He drove in 86 RBIs and added 18 home runs.  

Teams salivate for production like that out of the catching position, and the Diamondbacks already have it.

There is no reason to believe we will see any drop-off to the 28-year-old's game in 2012.  In fact, it is reasonable to believe his numbers will only be better, as he is in the middle of his prime.  

The Diamondbacks are fortunate to have Montero locked up through the 2013 season and will definitely see great numbers out of him in 2012.  

I would not be surprised to see a .275 average with .340 OBP, .430 SLG and OPS of .770 or better.

What Does It All Mean?

2011 proved to be a great jumping off point for a young team.  I envision 2012 to be all that much better.  Sure the Diamondbacks won 94 games, won the NL West and scored 731 runs in 2011.

So what?

Been there, done that.  In 2012, I expect bigger and better things for the team.  There is no reason why this club, in this division, can't win close to 100 games and score 800 runs in 2012.  

They have the talent.  They have the drive.  They've proven they can win.  

They just have to go out there and do it.