Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

When the 5-8 Buffalo Bills host the 4-9 Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, there will be no playoff spot on the line. Rather, the teams will be playing for pride and perhaps a better draft pick.

While the teams are similar in that regard, they have been going in different directions.

The Bills began the season 5-2 and seemed as though they might actually be a player in the AFC East after defeating the New England Patriots. Since their hot start, however, they have cooled considerably, losing their past six games. Injuries to the likes of running back Fred Jackson and defensive tackle Kyle Williams have much to do with that, as does a Swiss-cheese defense.

Miami started its year with a record of 0-7 and looked to be well on its way to selecting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck in the NFL Draft. The Dolphins have played much better of late, though, going 4-2 in their past six contests.

That wasn't enough to save the job of head coach Tony Sparano, however, as he was fired; Todd Bowles will take over on an interim basis.

Neither team realistically needs to win this game and they both may be better off losing it, but pride will certainly kick in for these players in a rivalry game. One interesting twist is that former Bills first-round pick J.P. Losman could get the start against his former team, with starting Dolphins QB Matt Moore injured.

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.

When: Sunday, Dec. 18, at 1 p.m. EDT

Watch: CBS: CBS 4 (Miami), blacked out in Buffalo market

Spread: Miami (-1.5)

With Miami playing much better ball than Buffalo over the past several weeks, it isn't much of a surprise to see them favored. The Bills have actually played quite well on their home field this year, though, and dropped close decisions to the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans in two of their past three games.

The Bills may be severely compromised by injury, but I would take them with the points and expect them to win outright. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing better as of late, so I think he'll be able to exploit Miami's lackluster secondary.

Over/Under: 42

Early in the season, the Bills simply couldn't be stopped on offense and were basically a lock to beat the over every game. That hasn't been the case lately thanks to a ton of injuries, but Buffalo's offense has shown signs of life in recent games.

On top of that, the Bills' defense simply cannot stop anyone at this point. Regardless of whether Moore or Losman starts at quarterback for the Dolphins, Miami will likely be able to score some points of its own. I think this should be a pretty high-scoring affair, so I would feel comfortable taking the over.

Dolphins Key Injuries

Questionable: QB Matt Moore (head, neck), TE Anthony Fasano (ribs), LB Koa Misi (shoulder), DB Yeremiah Bell (foot)

Probable: DB Vontae Davis (neck)

Bills Key Injuries

Questionable: TE Scott Chandler (ankle), DB Aaron Williams (calf), K Dave Rayner (groin)

Big Fantasy Plays

RB Reggie Bush (MIA): Much to the surprise of many, Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has proven capable of handling a starter's workload this season. He hasn't been as heavily involved in the passing game as he was in New Orleans, but he has impressed as a runner with a 4.6 yards-per-carry average. Buffalo ranks 25th against the run and Bush has back-to-back 100-yard games, so this is a match made in heaven.

WR Brandon Marshall (MIA): Due to the lack of a top-flight quarterback to get him the ball, Dolphins wide receiver Brandon Marshall hasn't been particularly explosive this season. He only has four touchdowns, although he has accrued 67 grabs for 937 yards, so it hasn't exactly been a lost season. The Bills really struggle to cover taller receivers that can get down the field, so Marshall could be in for some big plays.

Keys to Dolphins Win

For the Dolphins to win this game, I think the key is pretty simple. Miami needs to possess the ball and, most importantly, they need to avoid turning the ball over. One of the biggest reasons for Buffalo's success early in the year was its defense's ability to force turnovers. That was able to mask their true ineptitude, but that is no longer the case.

Miami will be able to move the ball on the Bills, even if Losman starts. Buffalo puts no pressure on the quarterback and puts up little defensive resistance most of the time. If the Dolphins take care of the football, then there is no reason why they shouldn't win the game.

Keys to Bills Win

Miami's key is to protect the ball on offense, but the Bills must pursue turnovers with reckless abandon on defense. If Buffalo's defense sits back, then it stands no chance of stopping the opposition. They were much better off early in the year when they were aggressive in terms of attacking the ball and going for strips.

Moore may very well start for Miami, but I get the feeling that Losman will get the nod against his former team. Losman has been very susceptible to turnovers in the past, so that could be a big factor.

On offense, Buffalo's success will likely come through the air. Miami is 25th against the pass, so Fitzpatrick will need to be a bit more on the mark than he has been during the Bills' losing streak.

Prediction

Bills 24, Dolphins 21