Fantasy Baseball: Impact of Offseason Moves

With the year coming to a fast end, I felt it was time to take a look at what the baseball offseason has given us so far. No doubt there have been some major signings and a lot of money spent, but the impact to the professional team can be far different than the impact to draft position.

Let’s take a look at some of the major moves.

C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to the Yankees

I’m convinced the Yankees went with both of these guys simply because they liked the whole initials thing.

Let’s start with Burnett. For me, like many analysts, drafting Burnett to begin with largely depends on how you view his health. In the last six seasons, Burnett has cracked 30 starts only twice. You can actually take that all the way back to 2001 (when he became a full-time starter) and still you only have two 30-start seasons. He’s had more seasons where he’s finished below 20 than over 30.

I wasn’t a huge fan of this signing for any team, mainly because Burnett was demanding too much money when he isn’t a front-of-the-rotation pitcher. In New York, he’ll be a two or three man. As a No. 3 starter, he’ll post solid numbers. I think he struggles as a No. 2 slightly more.

That said, even a poor ERA and WHIP will get him to 15 wins with the lineup he’ll have hitting to support him. However, his 18 wins last year were a career high. Burnett can struggle with command and the long ball, but will always deliver strikeouts.

In standard 5x5 leagues, Burnett’s place on the Yankees dictates he should be owned in most leagues. I would hesitate to draft him in the mid-rounds and look to steal him later in drafts. His durability and the pressure of playing in New York concern me.

As far as Sabathia is concerned, I caution owners to be wary.

Sabathia is a horse. In contrast to Burnett, he’s made at least 30 starts in all but one of his seven seasons. Yet, there have to be similar questions regarding Sabathia’s durability heading in to this season.

In 2008, Sabathia threw 253 innings after throwing 241 in 2007. That 2007 number was a 50-inning jump from his 2006 total. The Brewers knew that their only chance at the playoffs was on riding Sabathia into the ground, and probably knew there was virtually no chance at re-signing the pitcher. They threw him every third day down the stretch.

He’s now going to pitch for a lineup that should help him produce 20 wins, with ease, but is still shaky in the middle inning relief. That means they will look to Sabathia for seven-inning starts as often as possible, unless the score dictates otherwise. I’m not sure his shoulder can take that type of work three years in a row.

I’m going to caution owners against drafting Sabathia in the first two or three rounds. We all thought that Erik Bedard was going to be a prolific starter, yet look what Seattle got last season. There is a story like this each year. You can always find pitching; going for it early is not where to spend the money or the resources.

And, for the comfort of Red Sox fans, Sabathia is just 2-7 in nine career starts against Boston. He hasn’t been able to figure them out at all.

Mark Teixeira to the Yankees

He’s going to be hitting in a lineup where Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez will serve as protection. He’ll likely have Manny Ramirez in there as well, and Xavier Nady is no slouch with the bat either.

Teixeira is one bat that has received a major upgrade both in surroundings and potential draft position. He was a fringe second-round pick in most 12-team formats this season, and that should move to an early-to-mid-second round selection in all formats this season. I’d expect his ADP to jump from 23.9 in ESPN leagues to right around 16.5.

Why? Simple. He’s going to have better surroundings and more men on base to drive home. The short-porch that we will still see in the new Yankee Stadium is going to be very inviting, and his 33 home runs should go to 40 just for that reason.

If last season we saw .308/33/121, this season I would anticipate .300/40/135. I think Teixeira will hit fourth in the lineup, with Jeter and Rodriguez setting the table. It’s possible the RBI number comes down slightly as a result, because Rodriguez could handle some of that.

Still, the jump in home runs alone makes him a better pick heading into the 2009 season.

Kerry Wood to the Indians

Wood is coming off a season in Chicago that helped restore some of his credibility. Hard to believe this guy has already been around 10 years isn’t it?

It was a good season. He managed to put up 34 saves, a respectable 1.05 WHIP, and an ERA just north of 3.00. That’s steady. Can he duplicate it?

The one problem we had in Cleveland last season was determining who would actually finish a game for them. They parted ways with Bob Wickman, tried Masa Kobayashi, a couple guys named Rafael, and anyone else who wanted a shot. This season, we know the answer before spring training.

There’s something to be said for that.

I’ll take Wood as a second-tier closer. I wouldn’t want him as my primary guy, but if you need two relief pitchers (as most leagues require), he represents a high-upside reliever. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the exact same stat line we saw in Chicago last year.

Look for him in the later rounds, and be ready to grab Kobayashi if the ship starts to go down.

J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets

Think the Mets recognized they had a bullpen problem? They went out and got the two best closers available. Let’s start with Rodriguez.

I was never sold on the season he was putting up with the Angels. Yes, he set the saves record and was able to cash in. The numbers tell a different tale.

Last season, Rodriguez appeared in 76 games, recorded 62 saves, and pitched just 68 innings. Add to that, he blew seven saves, meaning 69 of his 76 appearances required a save situation.

In 2007, he pitched in 64 games and recorded 67 innings. Prior to that in 2006, it was 69 games and 73 innings, with 66 games and 67 innings in 2005. What does this tell me? He can’t pitch more than one inning at a time, and it’s almost always a save situation.

K-Rod posted a 2.25 ERA last season, and I think this is largely a product of how he was used and not entirely reflective of his effectiveness. His WHIP was 1.29, worse than Kerry Wood’s, and it was more because of control than hits.

I wouldn’t want to rely on a guy that had this type of background. If the Mets use him in the same way the Angels did, they’ll be fine. I just think they’re looking for more out of him, and that could be a problem.

J.J. Putz missed some time last season with several injuries, but his stuff is better than Rodriguez’s. I’ll stack him up against any closer in baseball. You don’t go from total domination one season to falling off the face of the earth. Not at his age, anyway.

Putz was outstanding in 2007, and he should return to that type of form.

The issue, as I see it, is that the two will both get chances at the end of games, and that means that neither is a true No. 1 closer. I’d look at both as low-end primary guys, but solid secondary options. Don’t reach for either.

Raul Ibanez to the Phillies

He has to be one of my favorite fantasy players. Every year, owners overlook the consistency of Ibanez in favor of lesser players, and he always makes a team or three pay.

Ibanez has driven in over 100 runs in each of the last three seasons and has 20 or more home runs in five of the last seven. He’s a .286 career hitter and has been around the .290 mark for the last two years. He’s not sexy, he’s reliable. As a fourth outfielder, or bench outfielder, teams could really do worse.

He may not be the biggest name in your draft, but building with his depth will help you win your league. Ibanez should be owned in all formats, and is a late-round steal. You won’t regret having him on your team.

Randy Johnson to the Giants

Johnson is another name that doesn’t really resonate any more. He stays in the N.L. West, and that means some pitcher’s parks that will help keep his numbers respectable. He’s out and looking for win No. 300, and it’s an environment where he won’t be expected to be the ace.

With Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum leading the rotation, Johnson need not be more than a No. 3 starter. I like that from him and would look to him as a deep-league starter or waiver wire claim in most leagues.

Trust me, someone will draft him and inevitably get frustrated with him. That’s when you want to make your move for the Big Unit.

Other Moves

I’m not particularly sold on most of the others as having major implications to any fantasy team. Gerald Laird and Ramon Hernandez are fringe catchers in any league.

Mike Hampton is always going to be a disaster that you’ll use as a spot starter in any league, at best. Javier Vazquez does just enough to suck you in and irritate you to no end.

Edgar Renteria is a nice player, but you can do better at shortstop.

That covers it for now, we’ll check back as more develops.