Philadelphia Flyers: 10 Reasons Claude Giroux Could Still Win the Scoring Title

From the 1980-81 season all the way through the 2000-01 season, the Art Ross Trophy (awarded to the NHL regular season scoring leader) was won by either Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux or Jaromir Jagr. However, in the nine seasons since then, there have been nine different scoring champions.

So it figures that there will be a 10th different scoring champion come the finish of the 2011-12 season. Despite his injury, Claude Giroux remains poised to lead the race.

I would just like to preface this list with saying that all of this will go out the window should Giroux's concussion worsen. While I do believe that Giroux will return within a reasonable time frame (five games or so), there is always the chance that his symptoms worsen and he sits out for upwards of 20 to 30 games (knock wood, hopefully that doesn't happen).

The Total Package

When Claude Giroux entered the NHL in 2008-09, he was a dazzling playmaker with hands that rivaled the best in the league. However, like many young players, he had yet to develop an overall game. That has all changed in the last two years.

Giroux has developed into a top-flight, all-situation player. He plays the passing and shooting lanes as well as ex-teammate Mike Richards, and forechecks and backchecks with the veracity of a demon. But that isn’t the most important improvement.

Seemingly out of nowhere, a lethal shot has been added to Giroux’s arsenal. It was seen from time to time last year, but has been on full display so far in 2011. Just 28 games into the season, he’s nine goals short of his career-high set last year, and has already scored more goals on mid-range shots and one-timers than he ever has.

His moves have always been electric. Adding a lightning quick and deadly accurate shot will make his goal total that much higher.

Peter Laviolette

Few coaches bring out the offensive talent of a team like Peter Laviolette. Since the lockout, Laviolette has coached a top five offensive squad three times, and only once had his team finish outside the top 10. His tenacious, forechecking style leads to numerous quality-scoring chances for his team and a lot of sustained offensive pressure. That perfectly suits a player like Giroux. 

His teams create this offense in two main ways. When the puck is deep in the offensive zone, the Flyers use one deep forechecker, who forces the opponent towards a second forechecker. In this case, either one of those two steals the puck, or an errant pass to the middle is intercepted by the third forward.

The second way is to carry the puck into the offensive zone and initiate the cycle game either by dropping the puck to the center lane forward or throwing it behind the net to the off-wing forward.

Claude Giroux thrives in both of these cases. His impeccable ice vision allows him to force turnovers as the deep forechecker, pickpocketing any defender who hesitates because of the second forecheker.

His decision-making when entering the zone with the puck is equally keen, and he sets the cycle up to generate numerous scoring chances for his linemates, many of which results with the puck in the back of the net. Meaning more points for him.

Massive Minutes

Last year’s scoring leader Daniel Sedin played only 18:33 per game. The year before, Henrik Sedin averaged 19:41 per game. However, in the four other years following the lockout, no other Art Ross winner has played fewer than 20:00 minutes per game.

Claude Giroux (seventh among NHL forwards in ice time) gets a ton of ice time, by far the most of any Flyers forward. He plays in all situations, and gets first-unit ice time on the penalty kill.

With the high-scoring pace that the Flyers have set, Giroux’s massive amount of ice time will mean that he is on the ice for a high number of goals. And if he’s on the ice when a goal is scored, No. 28 is usually involved.

Fall of the Mighty

Daniel Sedin. Henrik Sedin. Alex Ovechkin. Evgeni Malkin. Sidney Crosby. Joe Thornton.

Those are the last players, in chronological order, to lead the NHL in scoring. What do the ones not named Sedin have in common? None of them is ranked among the top 20 NHL scorers.

For a variety of reasons, the titans who usually reign across the NHL scoring board have faded. Thornton continues to age. Crosby’s brain may never allow him to play the game again. Ovechkin has lost himself in DC. And Malkin’s knees and groin seem ready to give out at any minute.

Even the Sedin twins don’t seem as mighty as usual. Coming off a draining Stanley Cup loss, the Canucks have been unable to replicate their regular-season success of the past two years. As the overall team falters, expect the Sedins to produce slightly below their paces from last year and the year before.

Even though guys like Stamkos and Toews will remain as strong challengers, the points race is wide open. Giroux is as likely as anyone to take advantage.

Overachievers Among Us

It happens every season. Certain players start the season with fresh legs and jump out to stand among the NHL’s scoring leaders. Flyers fans will remember Jeff Carter leading the NHL in goalscoring for the first half of the 2008-09 season. But eventually, those guys drop off.

The top 15 NHL points scorers is littered with names who have never been there before. Phil Kessel, while an elite talent, has career highs of 36 goals and 64 points through his first five NHL seasons. Jason Pominville has 34 goal and 80 point seasons to his credit, but his point totals have decreased in each of the last three years.

Players like Kris Versteeg, Joffrey Lupul and Stephen Weiss can’t even claim that much with only two 60-point seasons between them in a combined 20 years in the NHL. And I haven’t even brought up the totally unproven Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

At least three to four of these guys will fall off as the season continues. Lupul and Kessel (Toronto) and Versteeg and Weiss (Florida) all play on teams that are likely to see a downturn in success, and with that, a downturn in scoring. As the flies fall off the wall, expect Giroux’s competition at the top to become thinner.

Jaromir Jagr

Should we have expected anything else from this legend? Forget everything you’ve been told about how he’s too old to keep up with the young NHL. With 25 points in 25 games, you know that the guy can just flat out play.

A lot of people felt that Jagr’s aging legs would prevent him from keeping up with the high-speed game Laviolette’s Flyers play. While the wheels have definitely slowed, Jagr still remains a monster down low, and a master of protecting the puck. And his shot and ice vision remain among the best in the game.

In Jagr, Giroux has, for the first time, found undeniable chemistry with another player on the team. Even in leading the team in scoring last year, Giroux still bounced around on a number of different lines, with Jeff Carter his only reasonably consistent linemate. Jagr has been the yin to Giroux’s yang this year. And with the two of them on a line, the possibilities have been endless.

Kimmo Timonen

Pop quiz: among players who have yet to score a goal this year, which has the most points?

Kimmo Timonen and his 20 assists, of course. That was easy, you say?

Well, question number two: Which player is second, and how far behind Timonen is he?

The answer to that one: Tomas Kaberle, who, at 12 points, sits eight behind Timonen on the no-goals list.

Arguably, this has been Kimmo Timonen’s best year with the club. The 57 points he’s on pace for would not only be his high in a Flyers’ uniform, but a career high, as well. And, without Pronger, Timonen has taken on an expanded role in all facets of the game as the main puck distributor.

With Timonen’s puck-movement skills coming to the forefront this year, particularly on the power play, Giroux has been seeing increased scoring opportunities. In Anaheim, his three assists contributed directly to Giroux’s two points. His first assist got Giroux a secondary assist, while the third goal he assisted on allowed the game to go to overtime and Giroux to get the game-winning score.

A breakout year for any Flyers defenseman is good for Claude Giroux because it means better outlet passes and more opportunities for clean breaks into the offensive zone. However, a great year for Timonen means even more. His ability to play deep in the offensive zone creates a ton of chances for Giroux to pick up points. And while he hasn’t assisted on many of Giroux’s goals this year (only three so far), that just means we should see that number proportionally increase in the future.

Scott Hartnell

Let’s be honest. Scott Hartnell did not start off the year in the best way. Through the first seven games of the season, he picked up a measly two assists and had only seven shots on goal. Yet, he has gotten a very strong groundswell of support for the All-Star Game.

Well, a lot of that has to do with a renaissance he went through in the last four games of October, as he totaled four goals and nine points in that time frame. Including those four games, Hartnell has put up 25 points, including 15 goals in his last 22 games, astounding numbers considering his slow start.

Almost all of these have come while playing on a line with Giroux and Jagr. In playing with those two, something has just seemed to click in Hartnell, similar to how things clicked in the 2010 playoffs. He has been moving his feet, driving hard to the net, winning board battles, firing the puck on net a ton, and, for the most part, even avoiding the offensive-zone penalties that he has often been prone to taking.

When effective, Hartnell can be one of the better power forwards of the game. He’ll never be the second coming of John LeClair, but he can very easily play the role of a less-surefooted, but more agile and skilled version of Mike Knuble.

LeClair and Knuble were instrumental to the success of Lindros and Forsberg respectively, who were among the league scoring leaders during their time in Philadelphia. It serves to reason that Hartnell can serve the same purpose for Giroux.

Shooting Percentage/Goals/Assists Extrapolation

Now, there’s an interesting little factoid that can be extrapolated from Giroux’s numbers this season. Over the three previous seasons, Giroux has averaged exactly two assists for every one goal that he has scored. So what does that tell us about this year?

As of last night, Giroux has played 28 of 29 games for the Flyers and amassed 81 shots on goal. Assuming that he plays 75 games this season (very much a gross assumption), he will finish with 217 shots.

Should he finish the season at his current career shooting percentage (14.2 percent) Giroux will score 31 goals this year. Using the highly scientific two assists for every goal formula, that gives him 93 points.

Of course, the 93 points is below his current pace of 104 points in 75 games. Now, should we assume that he has a 14.2 shooting percentage from here on out (with the same 217 shots), we can bump the estimate up to 35 goals. That estimate would give him 70 assists on the season and 105 points.

Should Giroux exceed 100 points on the season, admittedly on the higher end of his projections, he should win the Art Ross. No one else is on a 100-point pace, and even if Giroux doesn’t crack the century mark, high 90s could very well win the scoring title.

A late-season challenger will undoubtedly emerge, but right now, Giroux is averaging almost .2 points per game more than the next closest scorer. That’s a big gap this early in the season and look for Giroux to take full advantage when he returns.

On His Shoulders

This last one is rather simple. This is Giroux’s team. Chris Pronger may be the Captain, but Giroux has been the driving force behind everything. He is the trigger man on the power play, working anywhere from the half-boards to the point, keeping the Flyers among the top five in power plays despite Pronger’s absence. He’s a main contributor to a penalty kill that, while 16th in the league, has held up admirably at crunch time.

Even beyond that, Giroux combines the energy and enthusiasm of an energy player with the insane skill of an NHL star. He goes out and dives at pucks and throws himself at players with six inches and 50 pounds on him. He never gives up on any play, in the offensive or defensive zone. Simply put, he plays Flyers hockey.

More than anything else, that was why the Flyers traded Mike Richards and Jeff Carter this offseason. They were willing to trust their future to Claude Giroux.