Frank Mir Beats Antonio Nogueira: Anatomy of an Upset

There were some MMA experts who accurately predicted the Mir upset over Nogueira.  Few of them could have predicted that the fight would be so one-sided.

From the moment the fight was announced, most experts seemed to heavily favor Nogueira. Here's how most people analysed the fight.

When the fight was standing, Nogueira seemed to have a significant advantage.  He'd stood with the likes of Mirko Cro Cop and Fedor Emelianenko, and lived to tell about it. He'd been able to out-strike many of his opponents, and, despite taking a tremendous amount of punishment, he had never been knocked out.

Frank Mir, on the other hand, rarely showed striking skills, was knocked down against an MMA infant Brock Lesnar within seconds, and had been TKO'ed by relative journeymen fighters Brandon Vera, Marcio Cruz, and Ian Freeman.

Most believed that even if Mir were able to get the better of the exchanges, he could be knocked out, while Nogueira would be nearly indestructible.

When considering the ground game, most believed that either Nogueira would have an advantage or the two fighters would neutralize each other.  Neither fighter has ever been submitted, and while Mir's submissions were flashy and varied, Nogueira's bread-and-butter BJJ was seen as perhaps more technically sound.

Now, given those skill sets, it seemed unlikely that Mir would be able to finish Nogueira in any way.  We can then consider the possibility of a decision.

Nogueira is known for his tremendous endurance and come-from-behind wins.  Mir, on the other hand, is known for fading after the first few minutes of a fight.  Therefore, even if Mir were able to win a round or two, surely Nogueira would be heavily favored over five rounds.

So how did Mir win?

Well, it appears that despite his brave and confident words, Frank Mir knew that he was up against a favored fighter. He knew that anything less than his best would not result in victory, so he trained harder than ever before and, for once, focused substantial time on his weaker areas, including striking and endurance.

From the opening of the fight, Mir's striking looked crisper than it ever had before.  It seemed that his striking training with Ken Hahn had paid off.

Meanwhile, Nogueira looked slowed, possibly as a result of age, and the wear caused by previous wars. Furthermore, despite losing the exchanges, he did not attempt to take Mir down.

Was this caused by overconfidence in his own chin and striking ability? Was it because he was hesitant to put Mir on his back, where Mir is most comfortable? Or was it simply a lack of opportunity?

In any case, the fight stayed standing for some time. When it went down, Mir quickly gauged that it would be difficult to pass Nogueira's guard, and opted to save energy by returning to the feet, where he was easily winning the fight.

So many factors seemed to make the fight turn out the way it did.

Mir showed better striking and conditioning than he ever had before, but that alone would not have been enough.  Instead, while he was better than ever, Nogueira finally seemed to be showing his "fight age."

There are two other aspects that cannot be overlooked. 

First of all, few people considered Mir's fast starts and Nogueira's endurance to be beneficial to Mir.  But while Nogueira's notoriously slow starts have failed to be exploited by most fighters, Mir's ability to come out of the gates fast and furious seems tailor made to beat Nogueira early, before Nogueira could get going.

All of this only looks smart in retrospect.

Also, Mir is as good a BJJ fighter as anyone else Nogueira has ever faced.  This may have been part of the reason Nogueira kept the fight standing.  This also allowed Mir to finish the fight on the ground, while other fighters like Cro Cop were hesitant to pound out Nogueira on the ground, needing to return the fight to the feet.

There will be many people who will credit this fight simply to Nogueira having taken too much damage in the past, or having been overrated. I don't really think this is fair to Nogueira or Mir though.

Nogueira always starts slow, and in retrospect, an opponent with Mir's athleticism and skill set is a huge challenge for anyone.

Furthermore, Mir looked better in the fight than he has ever looked before.  This was due to improved training, not just a reduced opponent.

Mir seems to have been finally able to actualize all of his fighting potential.  After seeing this fight, I am now looking forward to his rematch with Brock Lesnar.  Let's hope it lives up to my expectations.

Nogueira, on the other hand, may be nearing the end of his career.  But I'm still waiting for his next fight to see what he has left.

On Dec. 27, he faced a fighter at the peak of his ability, and one who had the kind of talents to neutralize his own style. But let's not write him off and say that he was overrated.

Nogueira has fought some of the greatest fights in the short history of mixed martial arts.  He is the quintessential warrior who doesn't know the meaning of the word "quit."

He's never been the greatest striker in the sport, and in fact, his jiu-jitsu is of the high-percentage non-glamorous variety.  But he never let that stop him from being one of the greatest heavyweight fighters of all time.

The reason he has always been so great is because of his spirit and warrior's heart. That's something that can never be taken away.