2012 TicketCity Bowl: 5 Bold Predictions That Lead to a Penn State Win

Penn State and Houston will meet on Jan. 2 in the TicketCity Bowl in what will be one of the most exciting and most watched non-BCS bowls of this years bowl season.  The TicketCity Bowl is one of only three non-BCS matchups this bowl season that features two ranked teams.

Both Houston and Penn State will be desperate to end the 2011-12 season on a high note after disappointing and devastating losses in their regular-season finales.  Houston lost a chance at earning its first ever BCS bowl bid, while Penn State lost a chance to play in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

In an interesting turn of events, both teams will also be playing with different coaches than they started the year with.  We all know why Joe Paterno is gone, but Houston coach Kevin Sumlin leaving for Texas A&M before the TicketCity Bowl was quite a shock.

No matter who's coaching whom and which team has more to lose, the teams still have to play the game, and I'm going to make five bold predictions that will lead to a Penn State victory. 

Penn State Will Win Without Scoring a Single Passing Touchdown

This prediction might not be all that bold, especially for fans who've watched the Nittany Lions this year.  It took Penn State until its fourth game of the season to record its first passing touchdown, and the 2012 TicketCity Bowl will reflect that.

Most other teams wouldn't be able to win games without recording a passing touchdown, but Penn State can do it because of its dominant defense and ability to run the ball.  Houston's passing defense isn't anything special, giving up an average of 214.2 yards per game, but it will be able to keep the underwhelming passing attack of Penn State at bay during the game.  

What Houston won't be able to stop is the rushing attack of Silas Redd, Stephfon Green and Curtis Dukes.  The running back trio will account for three touchdowns, while the powerful defense will account for the other Penn State score.

Penn State won't need any passing touchdowns to beat the Cougars.  All it will need is its consistently dominating defense and the legs of Redd, Green and Dukes.    

Penn State's Defense Will Force Four Case Keenum Turnovers

The way Southern Mississippi beat Houston two weeks ago was by putting pressure on quarterback Case Keenum and forcing him to turn the ball over.  Against Southern Mississippi Keenum threw two interceptions, which is almost half of his entire year total.

Penn State's defense forces on average 1.17 interceptions and 1.0 fumbles per game, and I expect Penn State to double those numbers in the TicketCity Bowl against the weak and overrated offensive line of Houston.

I see Penn State being able to force Keenum into a number of tough situations early on, resulting in a forced fumble in the end zone and an interception before the half.  The two other turnovers, one interception and one fumble, will come near the end of the third quarter as Houston is trying to make a comeback.

Look for Penn State to confuse Keenum early and often with its blitz packages, ultimately resulting in turnovers the Cougars can't overcome.  

Penn State's Defense Will Hold Cougars Offense to Less Than 350 Yards

Houston sports the top-ranked offense in all of college football, averaging a ridiculous 599.0 yard per game.  Houston averages 443.8 yards through the air and 155.2 yards on the ground, which is absolutely insane.  Bad news for Houston is that Penn State's defense only gives up an average of 300.9 yards per game, 162.2 through the air and 138.8 on the ground.

I'll give in to the fact Houston will gain more yards than Penn State's defense gives up on average, but it will only be by a minimal amount.  How is Penn State going to do that?  It will keep Houston to 350 total yards of offense by keeping the ball out of Keenum's hands.

Penn State will control the time of possession in the game by forcing Keenum into early turnovers and running the ball early and often.  It will be one of Penn State's most impressive defensive performances of the season, holding Houston to only 350 yards of total offense and earning a TicketCity Bowl victory. 

No. 25 RB Silas Redd Will Rush for 200 Yards and Three Touchdowns

Silas Redd produced consistently in 2011 against solid Big Ten defenses week in and week out.  In the month of October alone, against teams like Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois, Redd produced in five games a total of 703 yards on 133 carries, earning an average of 5.3 yards per carry.

Near the end of the season Redd got a little banged up and his production decreased, but the month off before the TicketCity Bowl will give him enough time to heal and get back into his truly elite shape.  In an offense that relied solely on his production, Redd proved he could handle the pressure, and he will do more than show Houston that by blowing it up for 200 yards and three touchdowns.

Houston gives up an average of 171.8 rushing yards per game, so it isn't a stretch to think Redd will be able to burn its below-average defense for at least 200 yards.  Redd will win the TicketCity Bowl MVP trophy en route to a big Penn State victory.    

Penn State's Defense Will Give Up No More Than 24 Points

Houston's high-powered offense puts up on average 51 points a game, but that won't be the case against the Nittany Lions' stingy defense.  Houston's lowest outing this year points-wise was its last game against Southern Mississippi when it only put 28 points on the scoreboard.  Bad news for Houston is that its offensive production will continue to decline, resulting in only 24 points in the TicketCity Bowl.

Penn State's defense gives up on average only 15.7 points per game, which ranks fifth nationally.  While Penn State won't be able to hold Houston to that average it will do the best job of any defense all season by holding Houston to a season-low 24 points.  How is Penn State going to do that?  

Again, Penn State will hold Houston to a season low by controlling the clock.  The longer Penn State can keep the ball out of Keenum's hands, the less time he has to burn the Lions with his rocket arm.  Penn State will win this game by running the ball early and often, which will result in the ability to control the overall time of possession.  

Penn State will smother Houston all game long, holding it to a season-low 24 points as the Nittany Lions ultimately prove too much for Houston to handle, earning Penn State a TicketCity Bowl victory. 

Prediction: Penn State 28, Houston 24