NFL Playoff Picture: Who's Nudging In, Who's Dropping out After Week 14?

The playoff picture is a changeable thing, and as the NFL regular season inches ever closer to the end, it does manage to become clearer.

Of course, there are a few postseason berths that won't be fully locked in until the curtain closes on Week 17, but with the moves in and out of contention after Week 14's slate of games, it's pretty easy to assume who has dropped out for good and who has likely secured themselves a coveted spot in the playoffs.

In the NFC, two teams have moved out of contention with losses in Week 14, but only one of them is in significant trouble of missing the postseason with just three games remaining.

The Dallas Cowboys, who were atop the NFC East heading into their most recent contest against the New York Giants, had to win to maintain that lead.

Unfortunately they did not, with mistakes and clock-management issues rearing their heads for the second straight week and starting running back DeMarco Murray breaking his right ankle, his season over.

With the loss, and with wins by both the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons, the Cowboys have dropped out of playoff contention. Dallas has two divisional games remaining on their schedule, with the NFC East likely decided in Week 17 when they face the Giants for the second time this season.

The playoffs aren't out of reach for Dallas yet, but they need to win at least two of their remaining games, including that closer against the Giants, if they want to get there.

The situation is far more dire for the Chicago Bears, who have dropped their last three games in a row and are behind both the NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers and division-mates Detroit Lions in the run for a playoff bid.

Only a wholesale collapse from a number of other heavy-hitting NFC teams will allow the Bears to see the football field in January. They're in a bad state after losing both starting quarterback Jay Cutler to a thumb injury, which required surgery, and star running back Matt Forte to an MCL sprain.

Though Forte may be healthy enough for a Week 16 return, it's doubtful that Cutler will take the field again in 2011. The running game is certainly a concern for the team, but their biggest issue is at quarterback, with the inaccurate and inexperienced Caleb Hanie under center.

With Hanie (who has thrown six interceptions to two touchdowns in his three starts) and Marion Barber running the offense, the Bears converted just two of their 15 third downs in their Week 14 loss to the Denver Broncos.

With that kind of offensive production, it's doubtful Chicago can get its act together enough to right their ship and earn themselves a wild-card playoff spot.

Switching to the AFC, two teams have managed to insert themselves back into the playoff discussion—the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets.

The Broncos, who struggled mightily in the early part of the season, have bounced back remarkably since naming Tim Tebow their starting quarterback over their Week 6 bye. Since he took over, the Broncos are 7-1 and have won their last six games in a row.

A lot of elements plus a little luck came together for Denver at the right time. Tebow is still having problems throwing the ball with any success but has managed to string together completions late in games when they matter most and has assisted his team in earning come-from-behind victories six times in his 11 total starts.

What's really helping Denver in the second half of the season is their defense, which seems to get stronger with every passing week. Denver also has the top rushing offense in the league, averaging just over 156 yards per game on the ground.

A bit of clutch play at the right time combined with a strong defense and good running game has propelled the Broncos into the top spot in the AFC West. With the remaining teams in their division struggling, it looks like Tebow will see his first postseason action of his young career.

The playoffs are nothing new for the New York Jets—in fact, not making the postseason would be more shocking than if we saw them take the field in January. But, for much of the 2011 regular season it looked like the Jets wouldn't make it, nudged out by three strong AFC North teams and a competitive AFC East, of which they are a part.

But the Jets have managed a three-game win streak, while at the same time, the Cincinnati Bengals and Oakland Raiders keep notching losses, putting the Jets once again in the running for a wild-card playoff spot.

The Jets have reached the AFC championship game for the last two years in a row and want more than anything to win it, propelling them to their first Super Bowl and fulfilling head coach Rex Ryan's long-proclaimed prophesy that his Jets are going to win it all.

New York has a long way to go yet if they want to hang onto that spot. They have two difficult contests against the NFC East and a divisional game against the Miami Dolphins ahead.

Dropping even one of these games could harm their postseason chances if another on-the-bubble AFC team manages the right wins at the right times. But for now, it's looking like the Jets, built for the playoffs, will reach them yet again.