Amir Khan vs. Lamont Peterson: Why Betting on Underdog is Throwing Money Away

Generally speaking, betting on an underdog in boxing is not a bad idea. After all, it takes literally one punch to completely sway the result of the fight. 

But if you're going to put money on a fight, you need to look at more than what works in theory. 

In this case, Bodog lists Amir Khan at -1100, while the underdog Lamont Peterson goes off at +650. 

Khan's not worth the bet. Those numbers are astronomical. You would need to put up too much money to have a payoff be worthwhile. 

But just because Peterson goes off with long odds doesn't mean he's worth the money. Peterson is 29-1-1, but has only won 15 of those fights by knockout. With a better history of ending fights early, he would be worth it. 

But given that lack of history and Khan's stellar record (26-1-0), you can't bank on Peterson catching Khan with a strong punch and taking the fight over. Khan's just not going to allow himself to get caught by that kind of combination. 

Khan is going to win this fight. There's really no questioning that. He's riding an incredible hot streak. Peterson on the other hand has suffered his only career loss and draw in his last four bouts. Khan's the better fighter, the overwhelming favorite and riding much more momentum. 

Betting on the winner here is just a terrible bet. Khan's going to win, but his odds are nowhere near good enough. Peterson has good odds, but the history isn't there.

There's no point in betting on an underdog that's not going to win. You're not getting a point spread here.

No, the better bet here is on how long the fight's going to go. Bodog lists the over/under at 8.5 rounds with under being -210 and over being +150. That's a more interesting play. As you can see by my prediction below, I am saying it's going to be barely under. 

Don't bet on who will win though. Khan's numbers just aren't good enough, and a bet on Peterson would just be throwing money away.

Prediction: Khan in an eighth round knockout

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