NFL Picks Week 14: Which Big Favorites Will Cover the Spread?

This late in the season, bettors can rest comfortably knowing they have a pretty good idea what each NFL team is capable of.

For example, savvy bettors will know which teams are capable of covering a big spread. As we saw the New England Patriots demonstrate against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, covering a big spread isn't easy. It takes a certain kind of dominance, and not every team is capable of it.

So, which teams are going to be capable of this kind of dominance in Week 14? To answer that question, we have to take a closer look at three specific matchups.

Note: All spreads according to Bodog.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

At a quick glance, this is a matchup the Steelers should have no trouble controlling. They are one of the very best teams in the AFC, and the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

But personally, I have my doubts. Because this game is going to be played on Thursday night, I worry about the Steelers' ability to play up to their capabilities on short rest. We've seen too many sloppy Thursday night games in the past, and this could very well be another.

No matter what happens, I don't think the Browns are going to be able to score any more than 10 points against the Steelers. Their offense is too hopeless, and the Steelers defense is too good.

My concern is with the Steelers offense. It's had its ups and downs this year, and it could have a down night against a Browns defense that isn't all that horrible. This is particularly true of the Browns' pass defense, which is No. 1 in the NFL.

In the end, I think this one's going to be too close.

Steelers 21, Browns 10

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-17)

At one point on Sunday, the Patriots had a 28-point lead over the Colts. Had they held on, they would have covered with ease.

Instead, the Pats let the Colts score three fourth-quarter touchdowns, and they walked away with a seven-point win. The Colts had beaten the spread.

I'm worried about the same thing happening in this game. The Ravens have enough defense to bury the Colts, and enough offense to open up a big lead, but they don't have nearly as much offense as the Patriots do. As such, it's a good bet the Ravens will let the Colts hang around, and the Colts could very well beat the spread via a garbage-time touchdown.

Besides, let's not forget that we're talking about the Ravens here. They haven't been a sure thing against the league's dregs this season.

Ravens 27, Colts 13

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11.5)

Let's clarify right here and now that the Raiders are not going to beat the Packers. The Packers may see their win streak come to an end this year, but the Raiders aren't the team to do the honors.

Oakland's doom in this matchup will be its secondary's utter inability to stop Aaron Rodgers and his troupe of pass-catchers. The Raiders are easily beaten through the air, and that does not bode well at all against a quarterback as good as Rodgers.

The Raiders' only hope is that Carson Palmer and their offense will be able to keep pace. They'll undoubtedly look to establish the run, but when they do they'll be ignoring Green Bay's main defensive weakness: its inability to stop the pass.

Sooner or later, Palmer will have to air it out. The only trouble is that he can be turnover prone, and the Packers are better at forcing turnovers than anybody.

All things considered, I actually think this is going to be an easy cover.

Packers 35, Raiders 21