NFL Playoff Picture: The 25 Most Important Remaining Regular-Season Games

As we get ready for Monday night and the end of the 13th week of the 2011 NFL season, a lot of things have come into focus, one above all else:

It's going to be a horse race for the wild-card spots in both conferences.

In the NFC, Green Bay and San Francisco have assured themselves playoff berths and locked up their divisions. New Orleans looks good for the NFC South as well.

Over in the AFC, Baltimore and New England haven't quite sewn up their divisions, but it's pretty close to done. Baltimore has beaten its biggest competitor, Pittsburgh, twice, so it would take an epic collapse for it to lose the AFC North. The Patriots have beaten the Jets twice, so they've got the upper hand there as well.

Several other divisions are still up in the air. The AFC West and South are still up for grabs, as is the NFC East. Those might all come down to the wire.

Both conferences are looking at potentially seeing one division dominate the wild-card slots. The NFC North looks like it could very easily claim both the fifth and sixth slots in the playoffs if Caleb Hanie and the Bears can hang on to their lead.

For the AFC, Pittsburgh looks very strong for the fifth slot, with fellow AFC North denizen Cincinnati in the final slot. Mind you, the Bengals losing—in grand fashion—to the Steelers on Sunday keeps the Jets, Titans and Raiders in the hunt for that final position.

Of course, the Raiders can slip into the playoffs if they can pick up a game on Denver. However, with the way the Broncos are playing, Oakland's best best could be to somehow get Tim Tebow deported.

At any rate, the next four weeks will tell the tale. As it stands, there are plenty of games that will weigh heavily on the playoff picture over the next month.

I'll break it down by week and show you 25 games of vital importance over the final stretch of the NFL season.

Week 14

Week 14 could turn out to be the most pivotal week in this group, and at the very worst there are a ton of dominoes that will start falling as a result of these games.

There are six bit of business I've flagged as vital to Week 14. Let's start with the evening game, a marquee matchup we'll see twice in four games.

Marquee Matchup

NY Giants at Dallas, 8:20 PM

The Giants are already reeling, especially from the loss to the Packers. Banged up and worn out, they are in a must-win situation each and every week from here on out, and if they are to make the playoffs, there is every chance it will come down to winning the division.

If they can beat Dallas in Week 14, they will be in control of their destiny. If they lose, there is every chance that come Week 17, it could be too late.

Dallas will have a tough game against Philadelphia before heading to New York for the final game. The Cowboys would rather the division didn't come down to that last week, and a win over the Giants at home would go a long way towards fulfilling that hope.

As banged up as the Giants are, expect them to be fired up for the Cowboys, a rival that would bring out their best regardless of playoff implications. You can expect the same from the Cowboys, who are coming off a shocking loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Two teams with something to prove and everything to lose.

Sunday night should be a perfect cap to a great day of football.

Here's what will get your appetite ready for the main course.

The Best of the Rest

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM (Thursday night)

On paper, this smells like a blowout, but we all know Cleveland would love to play spoiler to the Steelers' playoff chances. The Steelers are looking up at a Baltimore team that beat them twice and pretty much has the NFC North in a stranglehold because of it. The Steelers have a pretty commanding lead on the fifth wild-card spot, but it's by no means a lock.

If Cleveland can play solid defense and control the clock, it could have a shot at derailing the Steelers' hope for a Green Bay rematch in the first of two games the teams have over the course of the last four weeks.

Kansas City at NY Jets, 1:00 PM

Barring a miracle run (and who am I to say that can't happen), the Chiefs are pretty much dead in the water. If they have any hope at all, it's that they somehow catch Denver or Oakland and win the AFC West. In order to do this, they have to beat the Jets at home.

The Jets themselves are fighting for a playoff spot and are unlikely to win their division since they lost both games to New England this year. On top of that, the Jets lost to both Denver and Oakland. Essentially the Jets need to win every game from here on out and hope that Denver, Oakland, Cincinnati and Tennessee lose at least one game. Both teams need this game badly.

New Orleans at Tennessee, 1:00 PM

Like the Jets, the Titans desperately need a win to stay relevant in the AFC wild-card race. Unlike the Jets, they face a powerhouse offense who can very quickly put them in a hole. The Titans are in a must-win situation, for while they can still claim to have a chance if they lose, it could be awfully hard to catch up if they do.

Houston at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM

Losing to Pittsburgh was a pretty big blow to the Bengals' playoff chances. Yes, they are currently in the sixth slot, but with Houston in Week 14 and Baltimore in Week 17, they put themselves in a tougher place than needed.

Houston's defense played very well against the Falcons, and rookie T.J. Yates was effective in place of Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. The Houston defense will be a tough matchup for Bengals rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, though the Bengals defense is usually no slouch itself.

Houston probably has the AFC South locked up, but that doesn't mean it'll take its foot off the gas, and Cincy desperately needs a win here to keep ahead of the pack.

Chicago at Denver, 4:05 PM

I've stopped trying to figure out the Broncos and Tim Tebow. Why bother when it's just so fun to watch? Bottom line: Denver is getting it done with a solid defense and a serious ground attack. The Broncos are imposing their will on both sides of the ball and staying in a position to where they can make the last, big play.

The Broncos face a depleted Bears offense that has now lost not only Jay Cutler but Matt Forte as well, who reportedly has a grade two MCL sprain and will be gone for two to four weeks.

Can the Bears survive the home stretch without their two biggest weapons? Can their defense put an end to Tebow time? Both teams' playoff hopes could ride on this game as the Broncos look to secure their division, while the Bears are just trying to hang on to a wild-card spot in the NFC.

Week 15

Based on what happens in Week 14, these games could be even more vital for some teams. It's unlikely that too many of the teams from last week's games will be done and buried, so there are plenty of important matchups here as well.

There aren't many division games (only one or two) but plenty of important conference battles, beginning with one I've marked on my calender since Broncos coach John Fox installed the spread option.

Marquee Matchup

New England at Denver, 4:15 PM

When Kyle Orton was the quarterback in Denver, this game didn't really rate as important. It sure as heck moves the needle now, though. New England isn't so far ahead of the Jets that it can afford a loss, and the same can be said for Denver fending off Oakland, only with less wiggle room (both teams are 7-5 and split their series this year).

It's hard to imagine the Broncos overcoming the Patriots, but then again, we thought the spread option wouldn't work, Tebow couldn't win and the Broncos were dead after they got blown out by the Lions. Yet here we are, and you have to wonder what will happen here.

The general feeling is that if the Patriots can jump out to a lead early, Tebow and the option will be unable to come from behind because he can't pass. However, Tebow isn't turning over the ball much, the Pats can be thrown on and the Broncos defense has played extraordinarily well.

The key to this game will be whether rookie linebacker—and the NFL's only hipster—Von Miller will be back and 100 percent for this game. Miller has made this defense a force to be reckoned with, and that could make this a far more interesting game than what Tebow does behind center.

The Best of the Rest

Dallas at Tampa Bay, 8:20 PM (Saturday)

Like the New England-Denver game, this would seem like a snorefest on paper. However, depending on how things go against the Giants, this could be a huge game for Dallas. If the Cowboys have won, it will be important for them to continue to put pressure on New York with continued wins. If they've lost, they have to keep pace.

Add to the mix the possibility of Josh Johnson being under center if Josh Freeman's injury lingers, as well as a great rushing attack and a suddenly awake Mike Williams, and this game looks like it could be a lot more interesting than it should be.

A loss here by Dallas could really throw the NFC playoff race up for grabs.

Washington at NY Giants, 1:00 PM

The Giants are either reeling from five big losses in a row and desperate for a break or coming off a win in Dallas and suddenly able to breathe. As with the Cowboys, this game is vital either to keep pace with the Cowboys or stay ahead of them.

Despite the mediocre play of Washington since Week 4, this is a team that might have found a formula for offensive success with the emergence of rookie Roy Helu carrying the ball. We all know it would love to knock the Giants down a notch and make it that much harder to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati at St. Louis, 1:00 PM

The Bengals will head into St. Louis still chasing the Steelers and potentially the Raiders, Jets or Titans as well—perhaps all three. The Rams can score, and if their defense can solidify between now and this game, they should give the Bengals a run for their money. If the Bengals manage to lose this game, it will be awfully hard to get back into the wild-card hunt.

Detroit at Oakland 4:05 PM

Both teams will be fighting for a playoff spot, and in Oakland's case, perhaps the division. Neither will be able to afford the loss here, as the scramble in both conferences for those last playoff spots will be tight. The Lions have been sputtering, and the Raiders are trying to figure out how the heck the division got away from them. If Carson Palmer continues to play well and Darren McFadden returns, this game will be a lot closer than anyone expects.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco, 8:30 PM

As is the theme for Week 15, the Steelers will not be able to afford to drop a game when the rest of the conference is nipping at their heels, and they very much want to keep pace with Baltimore in case the Ravens stumble.

San Francisco would be the story of the year if Tim Tebow didn't exist, as it has exceeded all expectations for new head coach Jim Harbaugh's first year. It plays solid defense, and Frank Gore runs the ball. The Steelers have to slow both down to win this game. The 49ers don't need this as much as the Steelers, but that doesn't mean they don't want it as much.

Week 16

Week 16 will probably end some seasons. Again, depending on the previous week, this set of games might not be as vital as they are at this very moment, but at least some of them will be the tipping point for a season.

Take our first game on the list. It's entirely possible that both teams will still be in the hunt for a playoff spot and potentially a division title.

It's just as possible that a loss to their crosstown rival will end those same hopes right then and there.

Marquee Matchup

NY Giants at NY Jets, 1:00 PM

If you aren't from the New York area, I'll let you in on a secret: These two teams don't like each other. Always been that way. It's been more intense since Jets head coach Rex Ryan came to town and led the Jets to two AFC title games while the Giants have sat home. The last two preseason games have been very intense and very chippy.

Can you imagine what a game with something on the line will look like?

The Jets will probably still be fighting for the final spot in the AFC playoffs, and the Giants could be desperately hanging on to the same thing or even trying to stave off the Cowboys if they happened to beat them back in Week 14. Either way, this will be a big test for both teams with a lot of playoff implications and more than a little pride on the line.

The Giants will try to pressure Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez into one of his frequent pick-sixes, while the Jets defense will pressure Giants quarterback Eli Manning to turn the ball over as well.

It's going to be a bruising, grueling fight.

Merry Christmas.

The Best of the Rest

Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 PM

While Kansas City is probably out here, the Raiders could very well be in the hunt for a playoff spot and the AFC West division title. If the Broncos lose to New England in Week 15, the Raiders might already be in the lead spot. Either way, they'll be fighting to hold on to a playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs will do their utmost to spoil the Raiders' season and send them packing. Kansas City is a tough place to play, and by this time Kyle Orton will probably be in charge. That may not be a great thing, but it's better than Tyler Palko, and Orton can move the ball. The Chiefs won't go down easily.

Arizona at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM

The Bengals could be in dire straits here if things go badly against either Houston or St. Louis or, worse, both. The Cardinals looked pretty sharp in their Week 13 defeat of the Dallas Cowboys, and while I don't think they're a powerhouse, they've got enough to make things difficult for Cincy. The Bengals do have a solid defense, while the Cardinals have had problems with theirs.

However, there is such a glut that a loss here could kill any chance Cincinnati has of making the playoffs.

Denver at Buffalo, 1:00 PM

I swear to you, I am not Tebow obsessed. However, the truth is that Denver is likely to be in the hunt for a playoff spot until Week 17, and as the Broncos are 1) in the lead in their division and 2) in the catbird seat for a wild-card spot if they happen to drop out of the division lead, nearly every game they play is of vital importance.

What happens to the Broncos each week will have a huge impact on the AFC playoff race. While I don't expect them to have too much trouble with the Bills (especially without Fred Jackson), if they were to drop this game, all kinds of intriguing possibilities would open up for Week 17.

Philadelphia at Dallas, 4:15 PM

Whereas this game once looked like a huge battle between two likely division leaders, the Eagles imploded early on and now are relegated to spoiler status. Not that they won't relish that. If they can cause the Cowboys pain, they will.

The only problem is that causing the Cowboys pain will make things better for the Giants, and one can imagine that wouldn't make the Eagles happy. Still, the Eagles will come to play, and we may see Michael Vick, which will make things very interesting.

Looking back towards Week 14, the outcome of that game tells you how desperate this game might be. The Eagles could upset the Cowboys' playoff chances here and set up a huge Week 17 match between the Cowboys and Giants.

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:20 PM

The Bears could still be hanging on to a wild-card spot, but more important will be the Packers' hopes for an undefeated season. What could also be in the balance is home-field advantage. If the Packers drop two games in the last four weeks and the 49ers don't, the Packers could lose home field. Losing Lambeau in January would be a huge blow to the Packers.

Chicago, already desperate at this point, could make things very tough for the Packers to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:30 PM

While the NFC South could be locked up by now, it could still be in play as well. Even if it isn't, the Falcons could be battling for a playoff berth. Things need to go perfectly for the Falcons to sniff the NFC South title, but there is an excellent chance they'll be looking at a playoff spot anyway. That last spot is bound to be tightly contested, and a loss in New Orleans could put the Falcons on the outside looking in.

Week 17

Week 17 used to be almost an afterthought, at least most of the time. Not this season. We have division battles aplenty, and there will be multiple playoff spots in play.

Oh, and we may have an undefeated team facing a foe it pounded on Thanksgiving. There was also an attempted face-stomping.

Yeah, what are the chances that tops this week's list?

Marquee Matchup

Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 PM

We could have Green Bay trying for an undefeated season. They'll have home-field advantage, but it's unlikely the Packers will rest their starters, as that's not how head coach Mike McCarthy rolls. They'll be seeing Lions defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh for the first time since he tried to stomp on Packers RG Evan Dietrich-Smith's face. Oh, and Detroit might still be fighting for a playoff spot.

Yeah, this one isn't loaded with drama, is it?

The Best of the Rest

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM

Baltimore might be securing the division title still depending on how both the Ravens and Steelers played down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Bengals will be fighting for their playoff lives. It will be interesting to see if rookie quarterback Andy Dalton will be able to rise to the occasion and make the throws when it counts in the usual nasty January Cincinnati weather. The Ravens will come to play. Can the Bengals fight their way into the playoffs?

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 PM

I mentioned in a previous slide how Cleveland would like to play spoiler, and here will be its second time to prove it with Pittsburgh. It's a home game, which will help a little. The Steelers will play tough down the stretch, and Ben Roethlisberger knows how to close out a season. This will be a hard-fought battle with a lot on the line.

Dallas at NY Giants, 1:00 PM

Another repeat from Week 14 with potentially huge playoff implications. This could be for the division, or it could be for someone's playoff life. It's likely to be a hard-fought game, and both teams will leave it all on the field. If Dallas won the first meeting, the Giants could be desperate. If the Giants won, Dallas will have to find a way to win on the road.

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 PM

Flash back to 2008, when the Jets headed into a game against Miami with the playoffs on the line. They went in feeling they could win but left with a loss. It cost then-head coach Eric Mangini his job, sent Brett Favre into his 432nd retirement and brought Rex Ryan to New York. Maybe the Jets should thank the Dolphins.

Still, the Jets could be in the exact same situation going into this game against Miami. If the Jets are still in the hunt, it will probably come down to this game. The Dolphins always play the Jets tough and are a much different team now than they were when the Jets beat them in Week 6. The Jets have been streaky and inconsistent. Can the Dolphins upset the Jets and end their playoff hopes?

It wouldn't be the first time.

Kansas City at Denver 4:15 PM

While the Chiefs will probably be out of it, the Broncos could be facing several different scenarios. They could have locked the division up and be jockeying for a better berth. They could be fighting for the division title. They could have lost the title and be fighting for a wild-card spot. Regardless, this is likely a situation where a win for the Broncos would be very important.

A home game in Denver would be huge in the first round, especially if Pittsburgh or Baltimore end up in the fifth slot. In fact, any iteration of the fifth slot would look better if the Broncos were home that first week.

A game in the Mile High City looks much more promising than one on the road.