Big Ten Championship: 5 Reasons Michigan State Wins Again

It is game day in Indianapolis, and Michigan State and Wisconsin fans have descended into the Big Ten Fan Festival downtown. Although Wisconsin is widely considered to be the heavy favorite in this game, the Spartans will surprise the country and win their first trip to Pasadena since 1988.

Lucas Oil Stadium will look a bit like Christmas tonight as the fans clad in red and green fill up the stands to cheer on the winners of the Legends and Leaders division.  But only those fans in green will walk out of the stadium tonight with travel plans to California on the docket for January.

How will Sparty get it done? Here are five reasons why Michigan State will be the 2011 Big Ten champions.

No. 1: Wisconsin is not a dominant force away from Camp Randall Stadium

Wisconsin outscored opponents by an average of nearly 30 points per game, but these numbers were heavily inflated by the games at home and one game on a neutral field.  Wisconsin played eight of these games and outscored opponents by a shocking 41 points per game.

When Wisconsin played four true road games in conference play, the Badgers lost two of the four games and looked unimpressive in another at Illinois.  The only game away from Camp Randall in which Wisconsin looked truly dominant was against Minnesota, which is a rivalry game that always brings the best out of Wisconsin.

If the championship game were played in Camp Randall, the Badgers would be the easy and smart pick.  However, the team simply does not play with the same confidence and poise when there aren't 80,000 fans backing up the Badgers. Although Michigan State will also not enjoy the home-field advantage from the first meeting back in October, the Spartans have rolled on the road since struggling in their first three road games at South Bend, Columbus and Lincoln.

Michigan State will not need to overcome the hardest place to play in the Big Ten the past three years, so the opportunity is there for a Spartan victory.

No. 2: Michigan State's defense will limit the damage from Montee Ball

Michigan State's defense has held opponents to 15.4 points per game, which is sixth nationally (Wisconsin is fourth nationally at 15.2). The key to slowing opponents all season has been generating pressure and blocking running gaps with an experienced defensive line.

Although Montee Ball is a dark horse Heisman contender with 34 touchdowns on the season, the Spartans held Ball to only two touchdowns in the October game. Ball did run for 115 yards on 18 carries, but Michigan State did not allow any big runs over 20 yards that usually happen over the course of a Wisconsin game. Additionally, Ball's running mate James White was completely shut down in that game.

Michigan State did not have arguably its best defensive lineman in that game, either. With William Gholston back for this championship game, the Michigan State defensive line will be dominant once again. Michigan State handled the Badgers zone blocking scheme in October and will once again today.

As a result, Ball will likely be held around 100 yards or less, with no big game-changing plays.  And that will lead to the next reason MSU is headed for victory...

No. 3: Michigan State will generate turnovers from Russell Wilson again

Russell Wilson is on pace to set the record for passing efficiency for a season, largely due to a ridiculous 28 touchdown to three interception ratio. Wilson has also completed nearly 73 percent of his passes this season, giving Wisconsin true offensive balance for the first time in the Bret Bielema era.

Although Wilson has been penalized for the two high-profile losses in the middle of the season, his numbers are comparable and better in some categories than Heisman front runners Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. Yet every great quarterback has at least one bad game during the season, and Wilson had that game against Michigan State.

Although Wilson threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns against the Spartans in October, he also threw two of his three interceptions on the season in East Lansing. Michigan State forced Wilson to make quicker reads than he was comfortable with and pushed Wisconsin into a pass-heavy mindset by gaining the lead in the second quarter and holding it until late in the game.

The Spartans will shut down the running game even more effectively tonight, which will enable the defensive line to put even more pressure on Wilson. Another two interception performance is certainly possible, which renders Wisconsin's offense mortal.

No. 4: Special Teams is a critical advantage for MSU in close games

Although many casual observers will note that Wisconsin's prevent defense failed it in the waning moments of the October loss to Michigan State, the real change in momentum that swung the game happened back in the second quarter.  Wisconsin led 14-0 after a dominant first quarter and was poised to go up three scores by stopping the Spartans early in the second quarter.

But then, punter Mike Sadler buried the Badgers with a great punt to the 5-yard line. The Spartans forced a safety and then scored a touchdown to pull within five points.  Wisconsin responded with a long drive, but a short field goal attempt was blocked and led to another Spartan touchdown drive for the lead.

The special teams disaster continued on the next drive for Wisconsin, as a punt block was returned for another touchdown with a minute left in the half to finish a 23-0 quarter for Michigan State. A shell-shocked Wisconsin team did not recover from these special teams breakdowns until halfway through the fourth quarter, by which point Michigan State had a 14 point lead.

This championship game should be a close game thanks to both dominant defenses, and special teams will likely be the deciding factor.  Michigan State has the better kicker, the better punter and better block and coverage units. This huge advantage will once again prove to be decisive as the Spartans will come up with one or two big plays in the most-ignored aspect of the game.

No. 5: Mark Dantonio will prove that bold moves make for a better coach

Both Mark Dantonio and Bret Bielema have fallen from great coaching trees. Bielema tutored under Barry Alvarez, who learned his craft from Hayden Fry at Iowa. Mark Dantonio perfected his craft under Jim Tressel at Ohio State before moving on to Cincinnati and then East Lansing.  Both coaches have learned from great defensive minds and great programs.

However, Dantonio has proven that he is a better head coach by taking two middle-of-the-pack programs and leading them to conference championships. Cincinnati was an afterthought in the Big East before his arrival, but the recruiting classes Dantonio brought in turned the program into a contender that went to the BCS when Brian Kelly took over.

Now Dantonio has a chance to win two consecutive Big Ten championships at a school not accustomed to this level of success.  Even Nick Saban did not achieve multiple conference titles at East Lansing, and the secret to Dantonio's success is his willingness to take big risks, sometimes at unexpected times.

Wisconsin will find out first hand what Notre Dame suffered through last year, when Dantonio pulled some magic out of the hat with a fake field goal. Dantonio lives for the big moments when he can pull one over on the opposing coaching staff, and there is little doubt he will find a right moment to do it tonight against Bret Bielema.

Bielema is a good coach and should not be underestimated, but he is not in the same class as Dantonio.  The Spartans will prove that once again for the third time in two seasons on Saturday night.

If the championship game is half as entertaining as the October version of the game, then we will be in for a show tonight. Michigan State will upset the Badgers and will invade Pasadena in force to take on the Oregon Ducks in January, a trip long overdue for this program.