Cam Newton vs Andy Dalton: NFL ROY Race Echoes LeBron James vs Carmelo Anthony

The current crop of rookies in the NFL is as good as any that’s made its way out of the draft in a long while, with the stars of tomorrow making a significant impact on teams around the league today. As such, the race for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is (or would seem to be) as wide open as ever, with DeMarco Murray, AJ Green and Julio Jones jumping in the race over the last month or so.

But, realistically, the competition for the first-year crown boils down to a battle between Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers and Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals.

So how will things play out at the ballot box? Just ask LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

Wait, what? What do two NBA superstars have to do with a bunch of young guns in the No Fun League?

All About Class

The way football pundits are talking about this year’s rookie class is reminiscent of what folks said about the kids coming out of the 2003 NBA Draft. That draft will forever be known for giving rise to the superstar quartet of LeBron, ‘Melo, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, along with fellow All-Stars Chris Kaman, David West, Josh Howard and Mo Williams.

Not to mention a host of other solid pro careers, including those of Kirk Hinrich, Mickael Pietrus, Boris Diaw, Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa, Kyle Korver and Steve Blake, to name a few.

Sure, there were some huge busts, Darko Milicic the biggest of all, but that’s to be expected in just about every draft class in every major sport.

The list of noteworthy rookie contributors in the NFL this year is far longer and necessarily so, considering the sheer depth of rounds and picks.

Nonetheless, the comparative depth of talent between the two groupings is difficult to overlook, as is the competition for Rookie of the Year honors that has unfolded from each.

Rookies Raking

Newton and Dalton have been at the top of the heap all season, as both were the starting quarterbacks for their teams from Day 1. Newton’s numbers stand out from the crowd, almost as much as his actual play on the field. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft has completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,885 yards with 12 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 80.

Those stats are rather pedestrian on their own, but carry a lot more weight when you add in the 411 yards and nine touchdowns he’s picked up with his feet.

There’s little doubt that Newton has all the tools to be a superstar in the NFL for years to come. His Panthers may be an unimpressive 2-8, but the offense has been vastly improved with Newton at the controls, jumping from dead-last in the league in total yards per game last season to fifth in 2011. That has allowed the Panthers to hang tougher with their opponents despite sporting one of the NFL’s worst defenses, as six of their eight losses have come by a touchdown or less.

As far as intangible are concerned, Newton has few equals in his rookie class, if not the league as a whole. He’s brought an undeniable swagger to the downtrodden Panthers and has made his teammates better, most notably reviving the once-and-now-again-brilliant career of star receiver Steve Smith.

But if winning matters more than almost winning, then Dalton deserves a bit more publicity here. Dalton’s Bengals are 6-4, good enough to snag the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture if the season ended right now.

Granted, Dalton doesn’t have to carry his entire team, not with Cedric Benson running behind him and the league’s sixth-stingiest defense holding down Cincy’s opponents.

But that hardly nullifies what a pleasant surprise and a solid signal caller Dalton, the 35^th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, has been for Marvin Lewis’ squad. His completion percentage (59.3 percent), passing yardage (2,239 yards) and quarterback rating (79.6) are all comparable to what Newton has come up with so far. But the difference for Dalton lies in his touchdown-to-interception ratio—15-to-12, as opposed to 12-to-14 for Cam.

A Fresh Perspective

Clearly, both would be worthy recipients of the attention from the Associated Press, but, unless they split the vote, only one can come away with honor all to his lonesome.

So who will win it? Let’s go back to LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony for a moment.

LeBron, like Cam, came into the NBA as the No. 1 overall pick. He was a precocious young superstar-in-the-making, awash in hype and with the physical ability to live up to the expectations that were placed upon him.

He certainly delivered on his incredible promise in Year 1, finishing the 2003-04 campaign with per-game averages of 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists—good enough to draw comparisons to Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson—while helping the downtrodden Cleveland Cavaliers improve to 35 wins from just 17 the year before his arrival.

The jump that year was even more dramatic for the Denver Nuggets, whose record was identical to that of the Cavs in 2002-03 but shot up to 43-39 the next year, good enough to sneak into the Western Conference playoffs as the eighth seed.

The biggest difference? Carmelo Anthony, a star forward out of Syracuse and the third pick in the 2003 NBA Draft. His rookie season wasn’t too shabby—21 points, six rebounds and 2.8 assists per game—and, if anything, was comparable to King James’ first campaign. Like Dalton’s play for the Bengals, Anthony’s performance helped guide the Nuggets to their first playoff appearance since 1995.

Even so, James’ flash and fulfillment of expectations was enough to earn him distinction as the NBA Rookie of the Year for the 2003-04 season, with 78 first-place votes compared to 40 for ‘Melo.

Only Winners

Obviously, football writers are a different bunch from basketball writers, much as the sports themselves are divergent in how they evaluate and hand out individual accolades. If winning trumps everything, then Dalton will be the choice. If the writers decide, instead, to reward individual brilliance, then the votes will gravitate toward Newton.

Either way, there is no “wrong” choice to be made here. There wouldn’t likely be much of an issue if the award went to DeMarco Murray or AJ Green instead. The depth of the 2011 NFL Draft class goes far beyond Newton and Dalton—a fact the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting is likely to reflect in some form or fashion.

Whether Newton and Dalton prove to be transcendent talents in the NFL like LeBron and ‘Melo have been in the NBA remains to be seen. For now, though, the Panthers and the Bengals can only hope that their young stars lift them to the heights that the Cavs and the Nuggets reached with James and Anthony, respectively.

And that Newton and Dalton don’t ultimately bolt for brighter lights in bigger cities in a few years.