NFL Week 12 Picks for Every Game Against the Spread

Last week: 10-4.  Season totals: 87-67-5, Pct. .563.  Best Bets: 19-13-1, Pct. .591.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.  

THANKSGIVING DAY  

Green Bay 27, DETROIT 14 (+7) — Favorites are 9-0-1 against the spread in Turkey Day afternoon games over the past five years, and this isn't 1962 when the Packers also came into Detroit on Thanksgiving 10-0, only to see Bart Starr get sacked a still-NFL-record 13 times and suffer their lone loss that year (including the NFL title game, which they won).  

DALLAS 24, Miami 10 (+9) — The Dolphins have held their last three opponents without a touchdown, but they will have to get it done against a real offense before they will make a believer out of me.  

BALTIMORE 20, San Francisco 13 (+4 1/2) — They're trying to trick you by making the 7-3 Ravens this much of a favorite over the 9-1 49ers, but don't fall for it.  The home team has covered in each of the last four meetings, and San Francisco hasn't beaten the Baltimore-nee-Cleveland franchise on the road since 1984 and is 4-14 straight up and 5-11-2 against the line since 1998 as a visitor in cold weather (this is the only weather-intensive game this week—and it's at night, making it even more weather-intensive).  

SUNDAY  

N.Y. JETS 28, Buffalo 14 (+9) — The Ryan Fitzpatrick we all came to know, and not love one bit, in St. Louis and Cincinnati is back, in all its kitschy horror.  The Bills have stopped overachieving.  It's time for the Jets to stop underachieving.

ATLANTA 33, Minnesota 16 (+9 1/2) — Adrian Peterson is doubtful with a high ankle sprain, and the Vikings must be pretty rotten if the Raiders beat them on artificial turf.  

JACKSONVILLE 13 (+3 1/2), Houston 10 — Ken Whisenhunt destroyed Matt Leinart's confidence while Leinhart was in Arizona, and the Texans have the NFL's worst post-bye winning percentage straight up, at .222 (2-7).  The home team in this division rivalry has also won eight of the last nine.  Upset special.  

CINCINNATI 20, Cleveland 6 (+7) — Peyton Hillis is expected to miss his sixth straight game with a hamstring injury, and if anything has changed since the Bengals won by 10 at Cleveland on opening day, it has changed in Cincinnati's favor.  

INDIANAPOLIS 16 (+3 1/2), Carolina 14 — The Panthers are actually favored to win a game on the road!  That shouldn't be, and it won't happen.  

TENNESSEE 24, Tampa Bay 13 (+3 1/2) — The Titans might be better off with Jake Locker instead of Matt Hasselbeck (elbow, questionable) at quarterback, and Tampa Bay has never beaten Bud Adams' team on the road, taking an 0-for-6 lifetime collar visiting it.  

Arizona 17 (+3), ST. LOUIS 16 — If nothing else, Kevin Kolb's likely continued absence due to an ongoing turf-toe problem debunks the myth that the "new" artificial turf is really any different from the original version.  But even if Kolb does miss what would be his fourth consecutive start, John Skelton had two pretty solid outings, the first against the Rams three weeks ago, before running into a buzz saw in San Francisco last week. Also, the Cardinals will be seeking their seventh straight win in St. Louis, which, of course, they once called home.  

OAKLAND 24, Chicago 0 (+3 1/2) — The Bears would be wise indeed to re-acquire Kyle Orton if the chance presents itself.  While I've never been a big Orton fan, comparing him to Caleb Hanie is nonetheless like comparing what Tony Stewart drives to a 1924 Rickenbacker.

SEATTLE 23, Washington 16 (+5) — Who knows?  Maybe the Seahawks are going Earl Weaver on us, and want second place in the NFC West that badly.  Home team in this one has five straight covers.  

New England 31, PHILADELPHIA 14 (+4) — I'm chalking up last Sunday night's result as less a reflection on the Eagles than on the Giants, whose loss may have marked them as headed for yet another "pop and stop."  This could be the New England defense's second game in a row against a backup quarterback, and the Eagles are 1-7 both ways in their last eight at home dating back to last year's Tuesday night debacle against Minnesota.  

Denver 16 (+6 1/2), SAN DIEGO 13 — Tebowmania!  Why not—especially against the seemingly gutless Chargers?  

Pittsburgh 24, KANSAS CITY 6 (+10 1/2) — This game should definitely have been "flexed out" of its prime-time slot.  If Tyler Palko couldn't score a touchdown against the Patriots, he has little chance of generating enough offense in this spot to even give the Chiefs any realistic hope of covering the spread, let alone winning the game.  

MONDAY NIGHT  

NEW ORLEANS 42, New York Giants 17 (+6 1/2) — Another late-season train wreck is now likely on the Giant agenda—and their last two at the Superdome have been pretty fair train wrecks in their own right: 48-27 and 45-7.  The Monday night game provides a best bet for the third week running.  

BEST BETS: OAKLAND, NEW ENGLAND, NEW ORLEANS