Bowl Predictions 2012: Dark Horses for at-Large BCS Bids

A week filled with upsets of top 10 teams has resulted in serious shuffling of the BCS deck. With three of the top four teams in today’s AP poll—Alabama, Arkansas, Stanford—unlikely to win their conferences, cracking the BCS bowls as an at-large team just got a great deal tougher.

Of the teams jockeying for BCS position, this trio has the best chance to step into an at-large spot if one of the current front-runners suffers an upset:

South Carolina Gamecocks

Hovering just shy of BCS consideration at No. 14 in this week’s AP poll, South Carolina could climb into the top 10 before the season ends thanks to a combination of losses ahead of them and their own (likely) win over reeling Clemson in the season finale.

It would take an awful lot of lucky breaks for South Carolina (with three conference rivals ahead of them) to be considered, but it’s not impossible. If Auburn beats Alabama in the Iron Bowl and either Houston or Stanford gets upset, the resulting shakeup could let Alshon Jeffery and company sneak into a top-tier bowl.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The current Big 12 leaders, OK State would still have an outside shot at the BCS even if (as is perfectly likely) they lose their season finale to Oklahoma. In that scenario, the Cowboys would have to compete with an imposing pool of two-loss teams for a shot at the top bowl games.

It’s hard to imagine OK State getting the nod over a presumed two-loss Arkansas squad, but if Alabama or Stanford loses its season finale, don’t be surprised to see the Cowboys become the beneficiaries. Brandon Weeden and company spent so long as an unbeaten that they may get the benefit of the doubt from the BCS selectors.

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos are neck-and-neck with fellow BCS buster Houston (BSU leads in the AP poll, Houston in the USA Today poll), but the bet here is that the BCS will make the right call and reward unbeaten Houston. If, however, the Cougars get upset—and after this weekend, it’s hard to call any team immune from upsets—Boise will be right there to take the Cougars’ place.

With so few one-loss teams remaining in the country, a one-loss Broncos’ squad becomes a plausible competitor for some of the two-loss teams from the power conferences. It’s far from a sure thing—and Arkansas, at a minimum, would still be the pick despite an extra loss—but Boise would at least have a good case to make if a Houston loss opened up an opportunity.