Big Ten Bowl Projections: Wolverines Ride Chaos to BCS

The Big Ten conference has been out of the national title picture for weeks, but that does not mean football fans in the Midwest have been watching the chaos at the top of the rankings without any rooting interest.  To the contrary, the chaos that has ensued in the Top 15 rankings the past two weekends has helped the Big Ten do the unthinkable: improve their chances at a BCS at large for yet another season.

More particularly, when Michigan State locked up the Legends Division and Michigan defeated Nebraska to go to 9-2, the Wolverines positioned themselves to reach 10 wins without risking a third loss in the conference championship.  With Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Oregon taking on additional losses, the Pac-12 and Big 12 are not a lock for an at-large BCS berth anymore.

As a result, a win over the hated Buckeyes will return Michigan to the promised BCS land for the first time since 2006.  With Ohio State fading to end the season and traveling to Ann Arbor, Michigan is looking more and more like a BCS at large, which will keep the Big Ten in the national spotlight during bowl season.

With 10 teams poised to gain bowl eligibility, a second BCS bowl will also be critical to finding bowl destinations for all Big Ten teams.  Let's see where the teams fall out after Week 12.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (9-2) vs. Oregon (9-2)

Wisconsin handled Illinois despite a slow start this weekend, and that win keeps the Badgers on the track for Pasadena.  Only a home game against Penn State and the Big Ten Championship against Michigan State stand between Wisconsin and the Rose Bowl.  The way Wisconsin is playing in November, neither the Nittany Lions nor the Spartans should defeat the Badgers.

Meanwhile, Oregon dropped a surprising home contest to USC this weekend, knocking the Ducks out of the national championship picture.  As a result, Oregon will now face two easy games against Oregon State and UCLA/Utah/Arizona State to get back to Pasadena.

Wisconsin and Oregon will make for an interesting track meet, which will be a stark contrast to each team's loss in the previous two Rose Bowls.  Pasadena will be thrilled to see the Ducks and the Badgers.

Sugar Bowl: Michigan (9-2) vs. Stanford (10-1)

Although Michigan's defense looked to be the defense that would be overmatched in the game against Nebraska, the Wolverines knocked Taylor Martinez around and limited Rex Burkhead to blow away the Cornhuskers in Ann Arbor.  Now Michigan is eliminated from the Big Ten title race but can still have a highly successful season with a win over Ohio State, again in Ann Arbor.  The Buckeyes have owned the last decade of the series, but there will be no excuse this year with how poorly OSU is playing.

At this point I am projecting Oklahoma to defeat Oklahoma State, which will put the Cowboys against Michigan, Stanford and possibly TCU for two at-large slots.  The opportunity to grab Michigan will be too much to resist for a Sugar Bowl losing both SEC participants to the BCS Championship, so the Sugar Bowl will match up Michigan and Stanford in what would normally be a Rose Bowl game.

Stanford will not be able to see Oregon lose two weeks in a row, so Stanford will likely end up here with a win against Notre Dame.  If Arkansas loses this weekend, then Stanford should be an automatic at-large by finishing in the Top 4 of the BCS standings (Virginia Tech would be third).  Denard Robinson and Andrew Luck is a quarterback battle for the ages.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State (9-2) vs. Georgia (9-2)

Michigan State is slated for the Big Ten Championship and will likely face a team it defeated earlier this year: Wisconsin.  However, the Badgers only lost on a last-second pass on the road, so Wisconsin is currently projected to win the Big Ten title.  When that happens, Michigan State will be the first choice following the two BCS teams into the Capital One Bowl.

Although the Capital One Bowl could take Arkansas, the blowout of Alabama against Michigan State in the same game a year ago will lead the bowl representatives to pick Georgia instead.  The Bulldogs and Spartans match up well against one another and should make for a close game.  At a minimum, it will be closer than the 2011 Capital One Bowl.

Outback Bowl: Nebraska (8-3) vs. South Carolina (9-2)

Nebraska did not roll right over the Big Ten and the Legends Division in their first conference campaign, but the Cornhuskers also drew the toughest possible schedule in cross-division games.  Although the loss to Northwestern in Lincoln is inexplicable, the losses on the road at Madison and Ann Arbor are not terribly surprising considering how well Big Ten teams play at home.  Now Nebraska will have to settle for a good New Year's Day bowl game in Florida, but that is a nice place to land.

South Carolina will not be in the SEC Championship, but that may be a way to avoid disappointment considering the three possible West Division teams waiting to play in that game.  With the exception of 2008, the Gamecocks have not played in the Outback Bowl since two wins over Ohio State in 2000 and 2001, so their fans should be happy to head to Tampa. 

Nebraska will find out right away if they it lead the charge for Big Ten pride against the SEC.  Losing to the Gamecocks will not be a good start for the conference's newest member.

Insight Bowl: Iowa (7-4) vs. Baylor (7-3)

Iowa has a chance to play its way up the bowl order with a game against the team directly in front of them Nebraska this weekend.  The Hawkeyes have played inconsistently, but Iowa would love to upset Nebraska to welcome the Cornhuskers to the conference with a 4-4 first year.  James Vandenberg and Marvin McNutt will find the going easy against the Baylor defense if the Hawkeyes and Bears end up in this game.

Baylor won a critical game against Oklahoma this weekend to set itself up for the best bowl game behind Oklahoma, OSU and Kansas State.  With Robert Griffin III tearing up the statistics this season, this bowl game will provide another opportunity for the Hawkeye defense to battle against an elite quarterback.  The Hawkeyes took down Blaine Gabbert last year, so this could be a similar result.

Gator Bowl: Penn State (9-2) vs. Florida (6-5)

Penn State upset Ohio State for the second time in the last three tries in Columbus, thanks in large part to some inventive and unexpected plays in the first half.  It appears Jay Paterno and Tom Bradley can rely on more than just defense to win games, although the stifling defense did hold Ohio State scoreless in the second half to lock up the win. 

Now Penn State faces its toughest game of the season at Madison with a trip to Indianapolis on the line.  When that likely goes awry, Penn State will fall below nearly every other team with seven or more wins thanks to the controversial situation in State College.  However, that will allow Penn State to get another crack at Florida, which defeated the Nittany Lions in last year's Outback Bowl when Urban Meyer and Joe Paterno were still coaching.

Florida has struggled mightily in the SEC this year in Will Muschamp's first swing at the helm.  However, Florida State is scuffling and may not defeat the Gators.  With a win, Florida could slide up a slot or two in the bowl positioning.  However, this appears to be the most likely destination for the Gators.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Illinois (6-5) vs. Missouri (6-5)

Another week, another loss for the Illini as the season and perhaps Ron Zook's tenure keep slip-sliding away.  Despite a solid effort against Wisconsin, Illinois still managed to make too many mistakes to win against a team of that caliber.  Illinois will probably break the losing streak against Minnesota, which will give the Illini seven wins and possibly push them above Ohio State in the bowl selection process.

However, do not be surprised if OSU is the pick here, thanks to the bigger fan following and the head-to-head win for the Buckeyes.  That being said, the bowl would love to pair a rivalry that took a break this season after kicking off the past four years.  Missouri dominated that series, but Illinois would have a serious chance this year with the inconsistent play of both schools.

TicketCity Bowl: Ohio State (6-5) vs. Marshall (5-6)

Just two weeks ago, Ohio State was 6-3 and looked like a contender for the Big Ten championship again.  Two losses later, Ohio State is in desperation mode to avoid its first loss to Michigan in eight years, which would result in only the second 6-6 season since the early John Cooper days.  With Ohio State appearing poised to lose its final three games, the Buckeyes will fall all the way down to this bowl game against a Conference USA team.

Who that Conference USA team is yet to be decided, as East Carolina and Marshall play in Huntington this weekend with each looking for win No. 6.  The winner is almost guaranteed to end up in this bowl game, assuming Houston survives the final two weeks to end up in the BCS.  If that does not happen, SMU could drop to this game and pose a real challenge for the Buckeye defense, which has struggled to tackle this year.

Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl: Northwestern (6-5) vs. Ohio (8-3)

Northwestern won its fourth game in a row to secure bowl eligibility this week, which puts the Wildcats in position to jump up the bowl rankings quickly with a win over Michigan State.  Although that will probably be too tall of a task, Northwestern will be content to play in four straight bowl games for the first time in school history.

Dan Persa and his offense will likely face Ohio University, which punched a ticket to the MAC championship last weekend.  The Bobcats have not had a chance to play in this game in recent seasons, and Ohio fans will be happy to face another Midwestern team in Detroit.  Look for a defensive battle if these two teams play in this bowl game.

Hawaii Bowl: Purdue (5-6) vs. Hawaii (5-6)

The bowl projection game is always dicey late in the season when teams need a win or two to lock up bowl eligibility, but right now Purdue appears to be a good choice to play in Hawaii.  Hawaii plays tough at home, but the Warriors will need to upset BYU and defeat Tulane on the home field in the final two weeks of the season to play in this game.  If Hawaii does not end up bowl eligible, Purdue will almost certainly be the choice for this game to play another team such as Temple or Western Michigan.

Purdue plays Indiana this week, and if the Boilermakers cannot defeat the lowly Hoosiers this year, Purdue will be staying home for the holidays.  Additionally, Danny Hope will possibly be out of a job.  Let's hope Purdue can get the job done and make a record 10 Big Ten bowl teams in 2011.

BCS Bowl Projections

BCS Championship: LSU vs. Alabama

Rose: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Houston

Sugar: Michigan vs. Stanford

Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Louisville