NFL Week 11 Predictions: Why Chargers and Redskins Will Pull off Shocking Upsets

Are you ready for some upset specials?

Week 11 poses two games with mismatches on paper and in the standings, but in reality are going to shock you in Week 11:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

San Diego Chargers +3.5 @ Chicago Bears

The Chargers are a desperate team and at 4-5, and need this win to have a shot at making the playoffs. The Bears, on the other hand, have been getting praised left and right for their impressive four-game wining streak.

Despite his issues with turnovers, QB Phillip Rivers is still fourth in the league in passing yardage and he still has WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates at his disposal. A fair amount of his interceptions have been off deflections. He is still a top eight QB in this league.

On the other hand, people are giving Jay Cutler too much credit. With extra protection, he has been able to limit his turnovers and make the smart play. Yet, when you look at his stats since Week 6, he hasn’t thrown for 270 yards and is essentially playing the game-manager role to RB Matt Forte.

With the Chargers seventh-ranked pass defense, expect them to stack eight in the box and suffocate Forte.

The Chargers pass offense is resurrected as San Diego escapes Solider Field with a win they absolutely have to get.

Key Trends:

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Chargers are 22-8-3 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog.

Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in November.

Predictions: Chargers 27 Bears 23

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins +7.5

This is one of the biggest rivalries in sports, and it’s one of the only times you can truly throw out the record books when they meet.

QB Tony Romo has historically struggled against the Redskins strong pass defense, throwing for four touchdown passes in his last four games against Washington.

The Redskins QB situation is less than ideal, but Rex Grossman kept the ‘Skins within two at Dallas. I’m not saying he is going to tear the Cowboys to shreds at FedEx Field, but I think he can find the soft coverage in the middle of the field to keep the chains moving.

It also keeps the defense honest, which means RB Roy Helu can get some breathing room in the backfield.

With this rivalry it’s never a good idea to take over a touchdown spread. It's going to be a wild ride…but take the ‘Skins.

Key Trends:

Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC East.

Cowboys are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite.

Prediction: Redskins 20 Cowboys 17