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Nebraska vs. Michigan: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

Mike ChiariNov 17, 2011

Perhaps no conference in the nation is more wide open than the Big Ten, and two top contenders will be facing off on Saturday as the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines will host the No. 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

The teams are tied for second in the Legends Division with a 4-2 conference record and an overall mark of 8-2. Both teams sit one game behind Michigan State, so the loser will be eliminated from contention for all intents and purposes.

Michigan has already lost to Michigan State, meaning it must win out while the Spartans lose out. That seems somewhat unlikely, so you have to wonder if that knowledge will effect the play of the Wolverines in any way.

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Nebraska has a golden opportunity to reach the Big Ten Championship Game in their first year in the conference. Having already handled the Spartans, they simply need Michigan State to slip up just once in the closing games.

This game is about as close as it gets and it has major Big Ten implications. The winner will continue to be in the mix while the loser will essentially be eliminated, so this promises to be one of the week's biggest games.

Where: Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich.

When: Saturday, Nov. 19 at 12 p.m. ET

Watch: ESPN/ESPN3

Spread: Michigan (-3.5)

Nebraska is ranked slightly higher in the polls, but Michigan is favored by 3.5 points at home. While home-field advantage is probably the sole reason for the line, it seems to be a bit high. I consider Nebraska to be a slightly better and more complete squad than Michigan.

Because of that, I'm picking Nebraska to win this game outright despite being the underdog. This pick seems like a no-brainer to me, especially with the Huskers getting points.

Over/Under: 50.5

Both Michigan and Nebraska are capable of putting up points in any given week, but again, a total of 50.5 seems a tad excessive. Both teams can be stout on defense, and these late-season Big Ten games in cold weather tend to be on the lower side in terms of scoring.

It wouldn't be shocking to see this game go over, but I think the far safer bet would be to take the under in what figures to be a tightly contested game.

Nebraska Key Injuries

Doubtful: TE Ben Cotton (shoulder), OL Andrew Rodriguez (foot)

Questionable: DL Thaddeus Randle (knee), DL Chase Rome (groin), DB Courtney Osborne (undisclosed)

Michigan Key Injuries

Questionable: OL Taylor Lewan (ankle), OL Ricky Barnum (ankle), LB Brandon Herron (leg)

Probable: QB Denard Robinson (wrist), DB Troy Woolfolk (leg)

BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications

In terms of the BCS rankings, this game isn't particularly important because neither team is going to get an at-large bid. Both teams do still have BCS hopes, though, in the form of winning the Big Ten and earning a bid to the Rose Bowl.

Both teams are very much alive, particularly Nebraska, but this is an elimination game of sorts. As long as Michigan State takes care of its business, this game won't matter. Things never seem to go that way in college football, though, so there is a decent chance that the winner of the game will be playing for the Big Ten Championship.

Keys to Nebraska Win

Nebraska's success always hinges on the running game, and this game will be no different. The combination of quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead has been deadly running the option, and that will need to continue in order to beat the Wolverines.

Not only will running the ball help put points on the board, but it will keep the ball out of the hands of Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. When Robinson does have the ball, though, the Cornhuskers defense needs to ensure he doesn't break contain. If they make him one-dimensional and force him to pass exclusively, he isn't as effective.

Keys to Michigan Win

Michigan's entire offense is essentially quarterback Denard Robinson, so needless to say, Robinson needs to have a monster game on Saturday. Not only can Robinson do damage through the air, but he leads the team in rushing with 864 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The Wolverines defense has made major strides this season after a disastrous 2010 campaign. In fact, Michigan ranks fifth in the nation in scoring defense, and that side of the ball has led the charge in many games this year. Containing, or at least slowing down, the option is absolutely necessary if the Wolverines want to stay alive.

Prediction

Nebraska 24, Michigan 21

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