Nebraska vs. Michigan Football: Head-to-Head Breakdown

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI. – 12pm Eastern

TV Coverage: ESPN 

Coming off of an emotional win at Penn State, Nebraska travels to The Big House to take on the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday.

Is this a “must-win” for Nebraska and Michigan? The losing team in this game would not have their season ruined, but it would eliminate their chances of making it to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game or having the chance at a BCS Bowl bid.  

When both of these teams look at each other, they see themselves; they share identical records both overall (8-2) and within their conference (4-2).

Nebraska is ranked No. 17 while Michigan is ranked No. 20. Both teams have a dual-threat quarterback and like to establish the run.

The good news for each team is that they probably did not need to use the scout team this week in preparation for this game. Each team could line up their offense and it would be like preparing for their opponent this week.

Nebraska and Michigan have played each other six times. Michigan leads the series 3-2-1. The last time the two schools met was in the 2005 Alamo Bowl, when Nebraska beat Michigan 32-28. The game ended with Michigan completing many lateral passes as they ran the ball down the field. Michigan almost scored with no time left on the clock as fans and players ran onto the field.

The 2005 Alamo Bowl was arguably the best game of the 2005 bowl season.

Will the game this Saturday be as good as the last game between the two teams? With such similarities, there is a good chance of that happening.

Here is a how I see this game breaking down...

Nebraska’s Offense vs. Michigan’s Defense

Nebraska Total Offense Ranking: 50

Michigan Total Defense Ranking: 17

Nebraska’s offense has been playing well the past month of the season. What has been so surprising about Nebraska’s offense is quarterback Taylor Martinez’s ability to throw the ball down the field. His completion percentage is still low, but most of that is caused by receivers dropping passes.

If Nebraska can get their receivers to catch the ball, Nebraska’s offense may be unstoppable.

Watching Martinez throw the ball is not a pretty sight to see, but it is effective. Nebraska’s ability to run the ball has opened up passing lanes and left his receivers wide open.

I look for the Cornhuskers to give Michigan a heavy dose of running back Rex Burkhead this week.

As soon as Michigan stacks the line of scrimmage, Martinez will use play-action passes to move the ball down the field. The key in this game will be whether or not Nebraska’s receivers catch those passes.

Michigan’s defense is one of the most improved defenses in the country this season. Last year, Michigan was ranked at the bottom of almost every defensive category. This season Michigan ranks No. 41 in rushing defense and No. 22 in passing defense.

This game will be won by the team with the defense that is able to make a big play. Nebraska has had fumbling problems this season, from Martinez early and Burkhead of late.

Michigan has recovered 14 fumbles this year. If Nebraska is unable to hold onto the ball, Michigan could gain the advantage in this matchup.

Edge

If either team has an advantage in this matchup, I would give a slight edge to Nebraska.They was able to move the ball on the Michigan State and Penn State defenses. Both of those defenses are better than the Michigan defense.

As long as Nebraska can hold onto the ball, they will be able to put points on the board against the Wolverines.

Nebraska’s Defense vs. Michigan’s Offense

Nebraska Total Defense Rank: 38

Michigan Total Offense Rank: 33

There is no secret to what Nebraska’s game plan will be on Saturday: Stop Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson.

Michigan’s offense is centered on Robinson making big plays. Most of these plays are made when Robinson is able to escape from the pocket and run the ball down the field. Nebraska must be able to keep Robinson in the pocket and force him to throw the ball. That will not be an easy task for the Cornhuskers.

Sometimes Nebraska’s defense has looked like Superman. If there were ever a kryptonite for Nebraska’s defense, it is their ability to stop running quarterbacks.

Nebraska coach Bo Pelini is regarded as one of the best defensive minds in college football, so it will be interesting to see what kind of defensive system he designs to try and contain Robinson. I believe he will use corner blitzes and maybe a spy to follow Robinson everywhere he goes.

Nebraska must funnel Robinson’s runs to the middle of the field. They has one of the best linebackers in the country in Lavonte David and he will be the player that can stop Michigan’s offense.

Michigan will not rely solely on Robinson; they will use running back Fitz Toussaint to run the ball. Toussaint is sixth in the conference in rushing. If Nebraska focuses too much on Robinson, Toussaint could break some long runs.

Edge

I give the edge in this matchup to Michigan. Nebraska has not been able to stop any of the mobile quarterbacks they have faced this year, none of the whom had the skills of Denard Robinson.

This matchup may be the toughest the Cornhuskers have faced all season.

Special Teams

When it comes to special teams play, Nebraska wins the matchup against any team in the Big Ten Conference.

Nebraska’s punter/kicker Brett Maher was named the Big Ten special teams player of the week for his efforts against Penn State. Maher leads the conference in place-kicking, making 16-19 field goals. He also leads the conference in punting, with an average of 45.4 yards per punt.

Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah is ranked No. 2 in the conference in kickoff return average. He is averaging 31 yards per kickoff return. Abdullah also ranks No. 4 in the conference in punt return average with 8.2 yards per return.

The problem with Abdullah is that teams have started to kick away from him, limiting his returns.

Last season Michigan had one of the worst kicking games in the country. The Wolverines still have their problems. Kicker Brendan Gibbons has made 8-11 field goals and ranks No. 6 in the conference is kicking. Punter Will Hagerup is last in the conference with an average of only 35 yards per punt.

Michigan’s Jeremy Gallon ranks No. 2 in the conference in punt return average with 11 yards per return. Michigan does not have any players ranked in the top 10 in the conference in kickoff return average.  

Edge

If this game comes down to special teams play, Nebraska will win in a landslide. Nebraska has the best special teams unit in the Big Ten, while Michigan has one of the worst.

Special teams could be the factor that wins the game for the Cornhuskers this week.

Prediction

Last week I was perfect on my prediction of the Nebraska vs. Penn State game. I predicted a 17-14 win for the Cornhuskers and they made me look like a genius.

Can they make me look good again? Time will tell.

This will be a good game. The odds makers have Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite. If it is true that the home team automatically gets three points for home field advantage by the odds makers, than the people in Las Vegas see this game as a dead heat. I agree.

The team that is able to make a play on defense is the team that wins this game. I look for the Cornhuskers to come up with that play and win the game.

Nebraska 28 – Michigan 27

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