BCS Bowl Projections: Predicting the Matchups for the 5 Major Bowls

This point in the college football season is both the best of times and the worse of times. It is exciting because the last part of the season becomes a mini-playoff for some schools. For example, the Stanford Cardinals can advance to the next round of the playoffs this weekend with a win over Oregon.

At the same time, it is very frustrating. There will be several solid one-loss and two-loss teams who will be forced to play in an irrelevant bowl game while a four-loss team could make it to a BCS game simply because their conference has a bowl tie-in.

The system is far from perfect but at least the next few weeks will be exciting. Here are my predictions for the five BCS bowl games based on the information we now have.

Tostito's Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners

This game would draw great interest because both teams have dynamic offenses and both teams suffered a loss to the two teams playing in the national championship game.

This game would be a matchup of the No. 5 and No. 6 offenses in the nation.

The Sooners are led by quarterback Landry Jones who has already passed for over 3300 yards and 28 touchdowns. Oklahoma is third in the nation in passing with 380.9 yards passing per game.

The Ducks, on the other hand, prefer to do their damage on the ground. Led by LaMichael James, who has already rushed for over 1,000 yards despite missing two games, Oregon is fifth in the nation in rushing with 298.4 yards per game.

Both teams are inconsistent on defense so this could turn into s shootout.

I would give a slight edge to the Sooners because of the struggles Chip Kelly’s offenses have had in bowl games and season openers.

Discover Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Virginia Tech and Clemson appear to be headed for a rematch in the ACC Championship Game. The natural choice would be to select Clemson to repeat, but I believe the Hokies will run away with the game this time.

Clemson was playing off early season emotion. However, in their last three games they seem to have come back down to earth, including their last game in which they were soundly defeated 31-17 by Georgia Tech.

Cincinnati has won six consecutive games and sits atop the Big East. A win this week would go a long way in clinching a BCS birth. The Bearcats have the 12th ranked offense and the 18th ranked defense. As a result, the Bearcats are beating their opponents by 20 points per game.

Virginia Tech, once again, has a solid defense. Despite having the nation’s most underrated running back in David Wilson, who has already rushed for over 1300 yards, the offense has been sporadic.

In the end, Cincinnati has the better team on paper but the Hokies have the better team in reality. Unfortunately, this game might be a snoozer.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Boise State Broncos

When the Tide were defeated at home last week against LSU, all realistic chances of playing for the national championship were crushed. However, the Tide still have a shot at the Sugar Bowl if they can finish the season with wins against Mississippi State and Auburn.

Boise State, on the other hand, is going to be on the outside looking in once again. Despite dismantling the potential champions of the SEC East, the Broncos do not have the resume to make it in to the big game.

Many people believe that this game will be the mighty Tide putting the little Broncos back into their place. While the Tide might win this game it will not be a blowout.

The Broncos are not blowing teams out to the level that many expected and it is true that Alabama is the much more talented team. However, the Broncos have the best big game coach in the nation with Chris Peterson. No coach in America gets his team to play above their heads in one game like Peterson.

The Broncos will find it hard to score but they will score. Alabama might not find it as easy to score as they would hope. The Broncos are 12th in the nation in scoring defense and Alabama has struggled against the only two decent defenses they have faced.

Against Penn State and LSU, the Tide combined for an anemic 33 points.

I do think Alabama will win this game but Peterson and Kellen Moore will keep it close.

Rose Bowl Game: Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans

Stanford has two potential road blocks standing between them an undefeated season. Those two potential road blocks are this week’s game against Oregon and their season finale versus Notre Dame.

I believe they will win this weekend because of the home field advantage and probably win out this season. However, the Cardinal will miss out on a shot at the national championship and will receive the Rose Bowl game as a consolation.

Michigan State has the clearest shot at the Rose Bowl but the Big Ten Championship Game could go a different direction. The Big Ten’s Leaders division is the biggest question mark in this equation. The Penn State Nittany Lions have a commanding lead but the recent events that have transpired make it unclear who will come out of that division.

As a result, we have to give the Spartans the edge.

The Cardinals will be heavily favored over the Spartans but do not count out Michigan State just yet. They have a solid defense that ranks eighth in the nation in scoring, only allowing 16.0 points per game.

The problem for the Spartans is that defense probably will not be enough.

Stanford has Andrew Luck, who is a lock to be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft. He is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy and has his team third in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game.

The Cardinal also have a solid defense. Stanford is only allowing 16.6 point per game. The Cardinal are a solid all-around football team and it is a shame they will not be able to play in the BCS National Championship Game.

BCS National Championship Game: LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

After defeating No. 2 Alabama on the road last week, the Bayou Bengals are on the fast track to their third national championship in ten seasons. The only remaining test for the Tigers is Arkansas and the SEC Championship.

The Razorbacks have won three of the last four games against the Tigers. This, however, is 2011 and this is a different team. Without Knile Davis, Arkansas has a one dimensional offense and the Razorbacks have looked horrific on the road.

If the Georgia Bulldogs make it into the SEC Championship, they will be a more difficult task than Arkansas. The Bulldogs have a top ten defenses and the SEC’s premier quarterback in Aaron Murray. LSU should win this ball game but they will need to be focused.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, only has one remaining hurdle to face and that is their instate rival, the Oklahoma Sooners.  I believe the Sooners are the better team from top-to-bottom. However, they have had too many injuries over the last few weeks and none were bigger than the loss of All-American Ryan Broyles.

The loss of Broyles will be the demise of the Sooners in this game.

This matchup is ideal because it is the ultimate battle of wills. Oklahoma State is second in the nation in scoring, putting up 50.1 points per game. LSU, on the other hand, is second in the nation in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game allowed.

LSU would be favored in this game because of their overall resume. However, do not sleep on the Cowboys who can move the ball like no other team in college football.