NFL Picks, Week 10: New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers Move to Top Billing

A pair of the NFC’s surprise teams headlines the Week 10 schedule, as the 6-2 New York Giants head to the other coast to take on the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers in a battle of division leaders.

That the Giants are leading the NFC East at the midpoint of the season is a surprise. That the 49ers lead the NFC West by a whopping five games already is absolutely stunning.

Big Blue hasn’t made the playoffs since 2008 but leads the Dallas Cowboys by two games in the division and is three games clear of the trendy preseason pick in the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Giants come in off a big win at New England last week. When Eli Manning hit tight end Jake Ballard with a one-yard touchdown with 15 seconds left, the Giants ended the Patriots’ 20-game home winning streak and handed New England consecutive losses for just the third time since 2003.

The 49ers have the league’s second-best record under rookie coach Jim Harbaugh after not finishing with a winning record since 2002, which is also the last time San Francisco made the playoffs. The Niners have already topped last year’s win total and have won six straight game, their longest run since an 11-game streak in 1997.

San Francisco is winning because it can stop the run while being able to run on everyone else. The 49ers lead the NFL in rushing defense at 70.8 yards a game and have surrendered just 61.3 yards per game in their last three.

Frank Gore, meanwhile, has five straight 100-yard games.

But Harbaugh’s best work might be with Alex Smith, once thought to be one of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history after San Francisco used the No. 1 overall pick to take the former Utah star in 2005, passing on Aaron Rodgers. Smith has an NFL-best 131.0 passer rating in the final two minutes of games and his fourth-quarter mark is 106.7

Manning, meanwhile, made waves in the offseason when he said he deserved to be mentioned among the elite quarterbacks in the league but he is backing up the big talk this season. Manning’s late-game heroics have triggered New York’s three-game winning streak, leading game-winning drives in the fourth quarter of all three wins.

His 121.7 rating in the fourth quarter is best in the NFL.

New York has won its last three against San Francisco. The 49ers’ last win over the Giants was a dramatic playoff victory in January 2003, when San Francisco came back from 24 points down to win 39-38.

And with that, here are the picks for Week 10, with home teams in caps.

CHARGERS (-7) over Raiders (Thursday night): I don’t feel nearly as good about this pick as I do taking the over for total turnovers given the way Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer have been playing lately.

Bills (+6) over COWBOYS: Dallas played well in their last two home games, but Buffalo is quite a step up in weight class from the Rams and Seahawks.

CHIEFS (-4) over Broncos: There’s a reason why NFL teams don’t run a lot of option. NFL defenses are really, really fast.

DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins: It’s particularly telling that Washington was installed as a four-point dog against a one-win team.

Rams (+3) over BROWNS: St. Louis has Stephen Jackson. Cleveland’s run defense couldn’t stop Eric Dickerson. Not the Eric Dickerson of old, I mean the 51-year-old Dickerson of today.

EAGLES (no line) over Cardinals: Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Jim Hart, Charley Johnson…it doesn’t matter who is at quarterback for Arizona; Cardinals lose.

PANTHERS (-4) over Titans: The early-season bloom has gone off the Titans’ rose. That Week 2 performance against the Ravens seems like a lifetime ago.

BENGALS (+3) over Steelers: Getting points with the Bengals at home? Sign me up!

Texans (-4) over BUCCANEERS: Josh Freeman avoided the sophomore jinx. It’s the third year that’s proving difficult.

FALCONS (+1) over Saints: New Orleans has been like a wave at the beach this year—up, down, up, down. After their performance against the Bucs last week, there’s only one direction to go.

Jaguars (-3) over COLTS: Indy’s offense struggles against decent defenses. Jacksonville’s defense is far better than merely decent.

Ravens (-7) over SEAHAWKS: Unless the 12th man has some offensive skills, Seattle’s in big trouble.

49ERS (-3) over Giants: San Francisco keeps on rolling, regardless of which coast it plays on.

BEARS (-3) over Lions: Chicago’s offensive line hasn’t looked the same since the Monday night loss at Detroit. For the Bears, that’s a really good thing.

Patriots (+1) over JETS: The downside of the emotional pitch Rex Ryan keeps is that the Jets are prone to letdowns. And I can’t see New England losing three in a row.

PACKERS (-14) over Vikings: Only a fool would bet against Aaron Rodgers right now.

Last week: 9-5
Season: 71-52-7