2011 College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Stanford over Oregon

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oregon at Stanford

If you loved the No. 1 vs No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, you'll absolutely hate the hyper-offensive matchup between Stanford and Oregon in Week 11. It took overtime for Alabama and LSU to combine for 15 points. Depending on two-point conversion decisions, the Cardinal and Ducks could knock that out in the first two offensive series.

Andrew Luck and company are currently third in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James (now back from injury) and Kenjon Barner pace an offense fifth in scoring at 46.0 points per game. A season ago, the Ducks rallied to win 52-31, thanks in part to a 28-0 run to end the game.

For the moment, Stanford holds the better scoring defense, limiting the opposition to 16.6 points per game compared to the Ducks who have allowed 20.8 points per game.

Luck's notoriety has Stanford branded as a passing offense, but a closer look at their stats proves otherwise. They average 281 passing yards per game and 224 rushing yards. On the contrary, the Ducks are pretty one-dimensional and use their speed to move the pigskin down the field on the ground. They rank 78th in the nation in passing, but average nearly 300 yards on the ground per game, fifth in the country.

The Cardinal rank third in the country in rush defense and have allowed only 78.9 yards per game on the ground.

We simulated the Cardinal and Ducks 101 times and the simulation engine picks Stanford to win 63.4 percent of the time by an average score of 33-31.

TCU at Boise State

First place in the Mountain West Conference is on the line this Saturday in Boise. As they have in seasons past, the Broncos enter the game a perfect 8-0 with BCS National Championship aspirations on their minds. Despite Casey Pachell's best efforts, the Horned Frogs (7-2/4-0 MWC) are rebuilding following the departure of Andy Dalton to the NFL where he's led the Cincinnati Bengals to a 6-2 start to the season.

TCU currently ranks 70th in the nation in passing offense at 224 yards per game, but are solid in the ground game with a three-headed monster of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley. The trio has racked up better than 500 rushing yards apiece and has combined for 16 touchdowns.

Kellen Moore has continued a quiet bid to win the Heisman Trophy. As is always the case, a soft schedule has watered down his 2,229 passing yards and 29 touchdowns with only five interceptions. The Broncos remain one of the highest scoring offenses in the country at 43.9 points per game, currently seventh overall.

We simulated the Broncos and Horned Frogs 101 times and the simulation engine likes Boise State to win at home 78.2 percent of the time by an average score of 38-29.

College Football Week 11
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	27.7	22	Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers	72.3	32
Duke Blue Devils	32.2	24	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	67.8	30
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	35.6	25	Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles	64.4	29
North Carolina State Wolfpack	53.0	24	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	47.0	23
Virginia Tech Hokies	60.4	24	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	39.6	21
Pittsburgh Panthers	47.5	23	Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals	52.5	24
South Florida Bulls	48.5	23	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	51.5	24
West Virginia Mountaineers	62.4	32	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	37.6	28
Rice Owls	9.9	20	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	90.1	34
Michigan Wolverines	48.5	27	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	51.5	28
Nebraska Cornhuskers	49.5	22	Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	50.5	23
Michigan State Spartans	68.3	28	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	31.7	22
Ohio State Buckeyes	76.2	28	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	23.8	16
Wisconsin Badgers	95.0	42	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	5.0	12
Western Michigan Broncos	22.3	23	Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets	77.7	33
Miami (OH) RedHawks	30.7	19	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	69.3	27
Buffalo Bulls	61.9	23	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	38.1	19
Ohio Bobcats	67.3	28	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	32.7	22
Northern Illinois Huskies	81.2	34	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	18.8	23
Kent State Golden Flashes	80.7	24	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	19.3	14
Washington Huskies	32.7	27	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	67.3	33
Oregon Ducks	36.6	31	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	63.4	33
Oregon State Beavers	46.5	23	Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears	53.5	24
UCLA Bruins	58.4	28	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	41.6	25
Arizona Wildcats	71.3	29	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	28.7	23
Arizona State Sun Devils	82.7	34	Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars	17.3	22
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	5.0	11	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	95.0	43
Auburn Tigers	24.8	24	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	75.2	32
Tennessee Volunteers	27.2	22	Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	72.8	30
Florida Gators	40.6	19	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	59.4	22
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	47.5	28	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	52.5	30
Kentucky Wildcats	58.4	21	Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	41.6	20
Alabama Crimson Tide	82.7	31	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	17.3	18
San Jose State Spartans	49.5	26	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	50.5	28
Hawaii Warriors	67.3	35	Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	32.7	30
Fresno State Bulldogs	87.1	33	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	12.9	18
Idaho Vandals	16.8	17	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	83.2	32
Maryland Terrapins	17.8	18	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	82.2	30
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	76.2	27	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	23.8	18
Texas A&M Aggies	50.0	31	Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats	50.0	30
Texas Longhorns	51.0	25	Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers	49.0	24
Oklahoma State Cowboys	81.2	40	Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	18.8	29
Baylor Bears	83.2	40	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	16.8	26
Marshall Thundering Herd	27.7	26	Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	72.3	34
UCF Knights	36.6	30	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	63.4	34
Navy Midshipmen	43.1	26	Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	56.9	27
East Carolina Pirates	81.2	34	Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners	18.8	23
Houston Cougars	81.2	40	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	18.8	29
UAB Blazers	82.2	29	Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers	17.8	19
TCU Horned Frogs	21.8	29	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	78.2	38
Wyoming Cowboys	38.6	20	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	61.4	24
UNLV Rebels	72.3	26	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	27.7	18
San Diego State Aztecs	84.2	35	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	15.8	20
Florida Atlantic Owls	25.7	17	Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers	74.3	27
North Texas Mean Green	46.0	26	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	54.0	27
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	53.5	25	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	46.5	24
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	55.4	28	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	44.6	27