Setting the Hall of Fame Odds for Every 2011 1st Round NFL Draft Pick

Having the honor of being enshrined in the NFL Hall of Fame is not something everyone gets to experience. These players are the best of the best, all earning this this honor with their play on the field. One of the most highly debated topics in the NFL is the Hall of Fame odds of current players.

I am going to take that debate to a very different level and discuss the Hall of Fame odds of the 2011 first-round draft picks. These players are still in the beginning stages of their career, so these odds will be based on what we have seen so far.

The NFL Hall of Fame is an elite club, where only about seven people are enshrined each year. This is a very small portion of players, compared to the amount that actually play in the NFL. In order to enter the Hall of Fame, a player needs to have an exceptional career. He needs to have long sustained success and career stats that compare to other top players.

Hall of Fame voting is done by a group of 44 sportswriters, all of whom have a different opinion on criteria. This makes the voting a bit of a crap-shoot.

My odds are going to be based on the following scale:

99 percent to 80 percent: Very likely to enter the NFL Hall of Fame

79 percent to 51 percent: They have a shot, but really on the bubble

50 percent: It could go either way, kind of a boom or bust player

49 percent to 20 percent: It doesn't look very promising, but there is still a shot

19 percent to zero percent: Just about no way this guy makes it to the Hall of Fame

No. 1 Cam Newton, Quarterback: Carolina Panthers

The quarterback position gives a player the best chance to earn a spot in the NFL Hall of Fame. This position gets a lot of the glory, as well as the opportunity to rack up a ton of stats. However, there is also a lot of scrutiny for quarterbacks.

A Hall of Fame quarterback has to have a long and great career. He usually needs to win a Super Bowl, and if not, he needs to put up great numbers.

Cam Newton's career has gotten off on the right foot. He has surprised a lot of people and appears on his way to having a terrific career. Newton's athletic ability gives him the opportunity to be a real game-changing player. He may change the way we look at quarterbacks; he may be the model for the next breed of quarterback.

Based on his impressive start, Newton appears on track for a Hall-of-Fame career. The fact that he has been able to find success throwing the ball really gives him a leg up. The sky is the limit, and Newton appears ready to push the bounds.

Hall of Fame Odds: 85 percent

No. 2 Von Miller, Linebacker- Denver Broncos

The one thing most Hall of Famers have in common is their impressive career stats. These players have a long and successful career, which usually can be backed up by the stat sheet. One of the positions you can really produce at is as a pass rushing linebacker.

Denver's Von Miller is one of the primer rush linebackers, already compiling 6.5 total sacks. His ability to attack the edge and create pressure puts him as an early Hall of Fame candidate. Miller is only scratching the surface of his abilities. His pass rushing arsenal will only grow, as he gains more experience.

As a point of reference, Hall of Fame linebacker Lawrence Taylor compiled 132 career sacks over his 13-year career. This is an average of just over 10 sacks a year, a number Von Miller appears to be hitting in just his rookie season.

Hall of Fame Odds: 88 percent

No. 3 Marcell Dareus, Defensive Line: Buffalo Bills

A lot of stock is put into career stats and eye-popping numbers, but some players can dominate without putting up numbers. These are typically your offensive and defensive linemen, as these players have many different assignments.

Buffalo's Marcell Dareus is one of those players whose impact won't always be seen on a stat sheet. Dareus is often asked to occupy blockers so that linebackers can flow and make tackles. He does have some pass rushing ability, but his numbers will not be eye-popping.

Dareus is going to need a long career of dominate play. Unfortunately, anything less than greatness and dominance will keep him out of the Hall.

Hall of Fame Odds: 70 percent

No. 4 A.J. Green, Wide Receiver: Cincinnati Bengals

Finding your way into the Hall of Fame as a wide receiver can be a bumpy road. This is a position that has a long history of exciting and excellent players. There are a lot of very successful players who are still on the outside looking in.

The best example is former Buffalo Bill Andre Reed, who has 951 receptions, 13,198 yards and 87 career touchdowns. Reed still remains on the ballot, but has yet to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame.

Cincinnati's A.J. Green is having a great start to his career. He is proving to be a very good all-around player, capable of a deep strike and making underneath catches. Athletically, Green has the pedigree to make a strong run at the Hall of Fame.

The development of quarterback Andy Dalton will have a major impact on Green's Hall of Fame chances.

Hall of Fame Odds: 71 percent

No. 5 Patrick Peterson, Cornerback: Arizona Cardinals

Arizona's Patrick Peterson is already one of the more electrifying players on the Cardinals roster. He has made an instant impact, basically winning the game versus St. Louis by himself. Peterson is capable of impacting the game on a few different fronts. He is a guy who will play well in coverage, create turnovers and return kicks.

Every NFL defensive back will always be compared to the great Deon Sanders. Sanders was a true game breaker, which helped him high-step his way in to the Hall of Fame. During his career, Sanders had nine punt/kick returns and 53 interceptions.

As a point of reference, Peterson has three punt returns and two interceptions through eight games.

Hall of Fame Odds: 80 percent

No. 6 Julio Jones, Wide Receiver: Atlanta Falcons

Having terrific athletic ability is only part of becoming a great NFL player. Those athletic abilities have to be combined with a good work ethic, health and some luck. Not every player has all of these things fall in to place, thus impacting their Hall of Fame chances.

Atlanta's Julio Jones has the physical talent, good work ethic and the fortune of catching passes from Matt Ryan. However, his health is something that may hold him back. This next statement is going to be made with the Hall of Fame in mind. Julio Jones is too injury prone to make a strong run at the Hall of Fame.

Jones may still have a very long and productive career, but missing small stretches of playing time will keep him out of the Hall.

Hall of Fame Odds: 35 percent

No. 7 Aldon Smith, Outside Linebacker: San Francisco 49ers

At this stage in the NFL's history, we are seeing a bit of a change in expectations at some positions. This is especially true for outside linebackers. The emergence of the 3-4 system has inflated the sack numbers for this position. It has allowed several players to really tally impressive numbers. This change will no doubt have an impact on Hall of Fame voting.

San Francisco's Aldon Smith is off to an impressive rookie season and is benefiting from his role as a rush outside linebacker. Smith has already compiled 6.5 sacks through eight games. His sack total is due to his role, but also because of his physical abilities.

Depending on what the new sack total bar is set at, Smith has a good chance at making a push towards the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Odds: 79 percent

No. 8 Jake Locker, Quarterback: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee's Jake Locker has yet to start an NFL game, making the prediction of his Hall of Fame odds difficult. As I mentioned earlier, the path to the Hall of Fame for a quarterback is a tricky route. Locker's future is anything but certain at this point.

Coming out of college, many felt that Locker lacked the accuracy and technique to become a successful NFL quarterback. So, without seeing Locker play in the NFL, I have to use his college career as a basis. Locker's college career didn't show me anything that puts him on a path to the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Odds: 50 percent

No. 9 Tyron Smith, Offensive Tackle: Dallas Cowboys

Hall of Fame offensive linemen have a very different route compared to every other position. These guys do not have stats that are compiled and track. Basically, the best offensive linemen don't get recognized until late in their career. The biggest things that go into evaluating an offensive lineman is his durability, leadership and dependability.

Dallas' Tyron Smith has the physical abilities to play Hall of Fame caliber football. However, he has already struggled with nagging injuries, which is something that will derail any Hall of Fame hope. Outside the injury concern, Smith is stuck on the right side of the line. This is going to impact the way voters look at his career. Typically, left tackles get a lot more of the praise and accolades.

Hall of Fame Odds: 47 percent

No. 10 Blaine Gabbert, Quarterback: Jacksonville Jaguars

There have been plenty of rookie quarterbacks who have been forced into the staring lineup too early. A lot of these quarterback struggled to find major success as a rookie.

However, that doesn't mean there is no hope for development. For example, Peyton Manning's rookie season was anything but impressive, as he threw 28 interceptions.

Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert is fighting his way through his rookie season. Things have not been easy, but he is showing signs of progress. However, he hasn't shown anything that makes me feel that he is on track for the Hall of Fame.

Due to a lack of weapons, Gabbert is going to have a rough couple of years in Jacksonville.

Hall of Fame Odds: 30 percent

No. 11 J.J. Watt, Defensive End: Houston Texans

Houston's J.J. Watt is another one of those defensive linemen who will not compile a ton of stats, but will still have an impact. He plays the 5-technique position in a 3-4 scheme, where he is asked to occupy blockers and stuff the run. While rushing the passer is part of his job description, he isn't counted on to produce a lot of sacks.

It will be interesting to see how the voters consider these rising number of players who play this fairly new position.

Hall of Fame Odds: 55 percent

No. 12 Christian Ponder, Quarterback: Minnesota Vikings

Out of all the quarterbacks to play in the NFL, only 23 modern-day quarterbacks have been elected into the Hall of Fame. These odds really stack up against a quarterback making it into the Hall of Fame. There are a lot of factors that play into the development of a Hall-of-Fame quarterback.

Minnesota's Christian Ponder has shown enough to make many feel he could have a very good NFL career. However, the career of a good NFL quarterback looks a lot different than the career of a Hall of Fame quarterback.

I think we will see a good career from Ponder, but he will fall short of a Hall-of-Fame career.

Hall of Fame Odds: 41 percent

No. 13 Nick Fairley, Defensive Tackle: Detroit Lions

Detroit's Nick Fairley absolutely possesses the physical talents to have a Hall-of-Fame career. He has an explosive first step, which allows him to penetrate the pocket. Fairley combines that quick step with good size and a nasty disposition. He has the potential to have a very disruptive NFL career.

However, Fairley has some question marks, including health and work ethic. In order for Fairley to have a Hall of Fame career, he needs to cash in on his physical talents. This is going to require hard work and constantly being in shape.

Hall of Fame Odds: 50 percent

No. 14 Robert Quinn, Defensive End: St. Louis Rams

The one thing that each Hall of Fame player possesses is a strong work ethic. These are players who make the most of their physical talents. A Hall-of-Fame career isn't something that is easily attained, which makes it hard to set the odds for players with some red flags.

St. Louis' Robert Quinn is an extremely gifted football player who has the ability to develop into a great pass rusher. However, his rookie season has not gotten off to a great start. A lot of this could be attributed to missing his entire final season of college football. Quinn was suspended for his final season at North Carolina for accepting improper benefits.

Hall of Fame Odds: 39 percent

No. 15 Mike Pouncey, Center: Miami Dolphins

As I mentioned earlier, the Hall-of-Fame career of an offensive lineman is very different from that of other players. So much of the success of an NFL offensive lineman depends on his ability to remain healthy and in the lineup.

Thus far, the early part of Mike Pouncey's career has been hampered by injuries. He needs to find a way to stay on the field. His physical abilities put him in a good position to make a good run at the Hall of Fame. However, physical abilities are only part of the equation.

Hall of Fame Odds: 53 percent

No. 16 Ryan Kerrigan, Outside Linebacker: Washington Redskins

Hall of Fame players have a tendency to stand out as the best player on the field. Washington's Ryan Kerrigan doesn't have that wow factor that allows him to standout. He doesn't even stand out as the top pass rusher on this own team; that honor belongs to Brian Orakpo.

Kerrigan will have a long and successful career, but just won't ever be considered the best player on the field. Unfortunately for Kerrigan, that is what will keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Odds: 20 percent

No. 17 Nate Solder, Offensive Tackle: New England Patriots

Projecting the Hall of Fame odds for a rookie is extremely difficult, and a little crazy. However, looking at New England's Nate Solder, you can't help but see his potential. This is a big and athletic offensive lineman who was drafted by a great organization.

Solder is the future left tackle in New England and will have more than a few years of protecting Tom Brady's blindside. Solder has a lot of factors favoring his potential Hall of Fame odds. These factors include physical abilities, durability and the opportunity to play for a winning franchise.

Hall of Fame Odds: 70 percent

No. 18 Corey Liuget, Defensive Line: San Diego Chargers

San Diego's Corey Liuget is in a tough situation as far as his Hall of Fame chances are concerned. He plays the 5-technique position in a 3-4 scheme. This position isn't ideal for a player to compile the stats necessary to catch the eye of Hall of Fame voters.

Outside of the position he plays, Liuget just doesn't dominate the line enough to have a strong case for the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Odds:19 percent

No. 19 Prince Amukamara, Cornerback: New York Giants

Throughout this slide show, I mentioned the importance of remaining healthy. Unfortunately, New York's Prince Amukamara has not been able to start his career on the right foot. He has yet to play in a game with no timetable set for his return.

Amukamara is still a good looking cornerback prospect who possesses a bright future. However, he isn't the type of game breaker who will earn Hall of Fame attention. He also isn't capable of being a true shutdown corner like Darrelle Revis.

Hall of Fame Odds: 19 percent

No. 20 Adrian Clayborn, Defensive End: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay's Adrian Clayborn is flying under the radar, but is having a good rookie season. Thus far, he has registered three sacks, but has also played strong against the run. Clayborn has the potential to average around eight sacks per season for the next 12 years.

I actually like Clayborn's chances at earning a spot in the Hall of Fame. The key for him will be if he is able to keep a steady sack number. This will keep him in the spotlight, helping his complete play stay in focus.

Hall of Fame Odds: 79 percent

No. 21 Phil Taylor, Defensive Tackle: Cleveland Browns

In the 2011 draft class, I am not sure there is a more physically gifted athlete than Phil Taylor, outside of Cam Newton. Taylor possesses a rare combination of size and quickness. There aren't many men his size that possess that quickness. That size and athletic ability allow him to play a disruptive style of football.

If Taylor could avoid some of the work ethic concerns, he could spend his career in the offensive backfield. This would then lead to a spot in the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Odds: 60 percent

No. 22 Anthony Castonzo, Offensive Tackle: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis' Anthony Castonzo is another rookie who has seen his season impacted by injury. It is very difficult to feel good about a players Hall of Fame chances when their rookie season is plagued by injuries.

Castonzo is a very gifted player, who also has a high football IQ. He has a ton of potential and could develop into one of the premiere offensive tackles in the NFL. However, at this point, you have to be a little concerned about his durability.

Hall of Fame Odds: 49 percent

No. 23 Danny Watkins, Offensive Line: Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL is full of players who have long successful careers. These guys earn Pro Bowl bids, get media accolades and get paid a lot of money. However, these guys just don't have the type of careers worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Philadelphia's Danny Watkins strikes me as a player who will be on the outside looking in. He has talent and works hard, but just has the ability to be dominate. An offensive lineman needs to flash and, at times, look like the best player on the field.

Hall of Fame Odds: 36 percent

No. 24 Cameron Jordan, Defensive Line: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans' Cam Jordan is going to have a terrific football career. He is going to be someone that rushes the passer and plays the run. Jordan is not going to grab headlines, but he will play good, solid football. However, good, solid football doesn't earn you a trip to Canton.

Jordan's ability to rush the passer is limited, meaning he likely won't ever hit double-digit sacks in a season. If someone wants to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame, they either need to be a dominate pass rusher or run stopper, not just adequate at both.

Hall of Fame Odds: 31 percent

No. 25 James Carpenter, Offensive Line: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's James Carpenter was one of the surprises of the 2011 first round. Many felt that he was more of a  third round prospect, but Seattle felt differently. Thus far, Carpenter has not really performed at a high level. As I have mentioned several times, decent play doesn't not earn trips to Canton.

Carpenter is going to struggle to play at an elite level. I suspect that his career will be played out as a journeyman offensive tackle.

Hall of Fame Odds: 18 percent

No. 26 Jonathan Baldwin, Wide Receiver: Kansas City Chiefs

Heading into the 2011 draft, many felt that Jonathan Baldwin had some maturity issues that were a cause for concern. Baldwin quickly lived up to his reputation, as he got into a physical altercation with Thomas Jones. During the altercation, Baldwin was injured and missed several weeks of the season.

It appear's that Baldwin will be his own worst enemy, keeping himself out of the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Odds: 10 percent

No. 27 Jimmy Smith, Cornerback: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's Jimmy Smith is another 2011 draftee who has questions surrounding his maturity. Smith's maturity issues haven't been an issue yet, but health has been a problem. Smith has missed several games due to an injury, which in turn cost him a shot at the starting lineup.

The start to his rookie season could be a sign of future happenings. Hall of Fame careers are built on the football field with production. They are not built on the sidelines with talk.

Hall of Fame Odds: 19 percent

No. 28 Mark Ingram, Running Back: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans' Mark Ingram is a good running back who will have a solid career. He appears to have a bright future as the lead back in New Orleans. However, his Hall of Fame chances are hurt by his presence in New Orleans.

The Saints offense is a unit that loves to feature the passing game. Drew Brees is the face of the franchise and their best player. He figures to be around for more than a few more season, which would be the prime of Ingram's Career.

Hall of Fame Odds: 25 percent

No. 29 Gabe Carimi, Offensive Line: Chicago Bears

The injury bug has also struck Chicago's Gabe Carimi, who has been out of action since week two. His injury has likely cost him a spot in the starting lineup, as the Bears line is showing some positive signs. Carimi's career will not be defined by his rookie season, and I feel he has a really bright future.

However, this injury isn't something that can quickly be disregarded. It has to be taken into account when predicting his future. The fact is, Carimi just hasn't had enough playing time to impress.

Hall of Fame Odds: 49 percent

No. 30 Muhammad Wilkerson, Defensive Line: New York Jets

Through the first eight games of his career, Muhammad Wilkerson has only recorded one sack. He plays the 5-technique position in the Jets 3-4 scheme. However, Wilkerson is seen as more of a pass rushing threat than a run stuffer. He has the explosiveness that should allow him to create some pressure in the backfield.

Only having one sack so far this season is a bit of a disappointment. New York added him with the hope he would help put some pressure on the quarterback.

Hall of Fame Odds: 29 percent

No. 31 Cameron Heyward, Defensive Line: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh's Cameron Heyward has a bright future as a 5-technique defensive end in the Steelers 3-4 system. He has good size and athletic ability, which allows him to hold up against the run and create some pressure.

However, Hewyard appears destine to be part of a rotation for at least the next few years. This is going to impact his overall career totals. His ability to rack up stats is already limited by his position and presence on the Steelers roster, which will always feature linebackers.

Hall of Fame Odds: 21 percent

No. 32 Derek Sherrod, Offensive Line: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay's Derek Sherrod entered training camp with a shot at winning the left guard spot. However, T.J. Lang beat him out for that starting spot.

He was then expected to be the backup at several of the offensive line spots.  Instead, Marshall Newhouse was inserted into the starting lineup when Chad Clifton went out with an injury.

What does all this tell us? Derek Sherrod isn't close to being ready to start in the NFL. Honestly, most Hall of Fame offensive linemen get starting spots early in their career.

Hall of Fame Odds: 15 percent