NFL Week 9 Picks: Every Game Against the Spread

Last week: 6-7.  Season totals: 63-48-5, Pct. .565.  Best Bets: 14-9-1, Pct. .604.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.    

SUNDAY

BUFFALO 20, N.Y. Jets 16 (+1)

I'll let the Jets prove they can actually win on the road, and especially against a good team, before I start picking them to do so.  And last week's shutout, even if it did come at the expense of an offense that is utterly desecrated with injuries, had to be a tremendous confidence builder for the Buffalo defense.  

NEW ENGLAND 24, N.Y. Giants 17 (+9)

The Giants' seven opponents thus far are 15-34 combined, while their nine to come are 39-25.  But New England's offense is looking very ordinary all of a sudden and a Giant defense that leads the league in sacks might manage to put enough pressure on Tom Brady to enable the Giants to cover.    

San Francisco 27, WASHINGTON 0 (+4)

The Redskins would be well within themselves not to score a touchdown on offense the rest of the season.  Can't believe this line is only four.  

Atlanta 21, INDIANAPOLIS 17 (+9)

Looking ahead did one NFC South team in last week.  It may do another one in here (the Falcons have the Saints at home next), particularly with the Falcons never having beaten the Colts on the road and being 1-13 straight up lifetime against them overall.  But in any case, take the points.  

NEW ORLEANS 24, Tampa Bay 23 (+9)

There are several games this week whose lines belong in Ed Schultz's Psycho Talk segment.  The San Francisco game is one, and this is another; not only that, but the Bucs miss having covered in eight consecutive road games against the Saints by half a point (a four-point loss as a 3.5-point underdog in 2008) and have in fact covered five in a row off a bye week, and six straight indoors.  

KANSAS CITY 28, Miami 7 (+5)

Still another Psycho Talk line; and Miami is 12-31 straight up and 17-25-1 against the line since 1995 as a visitor in cold weather—namely, when a warm-weather or dome team must play at a northern, outdoor site in November or later—including 1-2 both ways therein last year when the Dolphins won and covered in all five of their other road games.  

HOUSTON 23, Cleveland 16 (+10.5)

This number is at least in borderline Psycho Talk territory.  Probably no Andre Johnson for one more week, and the Texans could be in the letdown zone coming off back-to-back AFC South wins.    

DALLAS 34, Seattle 7 (+12.5)

Two weeks ago the Cowboys won 34-7 at home before losing by the same score last Sunday night on the road.  Returning home here, they may very well come full circle facing a team against which they have covered five straight times.    

Cincinnati 20 (+3), TENNESSEE 13

Cedric Benson is back, and Chris Johnson is almost gone, as Mike Munchak seriously considered benching him in favor of Javon Ringer.  The Bengals are sure making the most of their huge drop in strength of schedule.  

Denver 17 (+7), OAKLAND 16

Tim Tebow has one bad game and all of a sudden he's the second coming of JaMarcus Russell.  I'm not buying it—and I'm not under any circumstances buying the Raiders, who have lost and non-covered in their last eight following a bye week, plus they're coming off a shutout loss, and teams doing that since 2007 are 8-20 straight up in their next game.  It's the week's upset special.  

ARIZONA 7, St. Louis 6 (+3.5)

Both starting quarterbacks are likely to be game-time decisions, which means that there's a three-out-of-four chance the advantage will accrue to St. Louis because if either both or neither end up playing it favors the Rams.  This may be both the most unwatchable and unbettable game of the entire season.  

Green Bay 33, SAN DIEGO 20 (+6)

The Packers survived their scare last week, and they've never lost in San Diego, going 5-0 there by a combined 135 to 60.    

PITTSBURGH 21, Baltimore 16 (+3.5)

Told you the Ravens were overrated.  But Pittsburgh's assortment of injuries on defense and the tricky number present problems so sit this one out if you can.  

MONDAY NIGHT  

PHILADELPHIA 27, Chicago 23 (+7)

I'm not convinced that the Eagles have turned any kind of corner and they're 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they've hosted the Bears.  Matt Forte is probably the key here: If he can grind out enough yardage against Philadelphia's puny front seven, the Bears have a solid chance to cover a number that is clearly too high given the fact that Chicago not only has a better record, but has also beaten two teams with winning records while the Eagles haven't beaten any yet this year.  

BEST BETS: SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, DALLAS