BCS Rankings: Which BCS Contenders Must Avoid Overconfidence in Week 10?

With the regular season nearing a conclusion, one thing all BCS-contending head coaches need to preach to their teams is avoiding overconfidence. Even conference cellar dwellers are dangerous because a chance to knock off a top dog is like a bowl game to them.

Here are the three teams in the most danger of the phenomena in Week 10.

No. 4 Stanford Cardinal

Stanford is coming off its two most impressive wins of the season, including Saturday's triple-overtime thriller against USC, and have to play Oregon in Week 11. That means the Oregon State game could get lost in all the commotion.

Andrew Luck, who has 23 touchdowns and only four interceptions, is under fire from CBS analyst Phil Simms, adding more distraction to an already hectic week. It's paramount that he maintains focus this week and doesn't try to do too much.

Oregon State shouldn't pose much of a threat, but they do have the nation's 22nd ranked passing attack and could capitalize if Stanford comes out sluggish.

No. 5 Boise State Broncos

Even though Boise State appears to be on cruise control en route to its fourth undefeated season out of the last six, the Broncos can't afford to take these conference road games lightly as Nevada proved to them last season.

When they play UNLV on Saturday, every power conference school in the BCS conversation will be rooting for the Rebels. Especially the one-loss squads. Getting Boise out of the picture would help them get back in the National Title hunt.

Kellen Moore should be able to carve up UNLV's secondary, but as Texas Tech illustrated a few weeks back, there are no guarantees in college football.

No. 15 Michigan Wolverines

Michigan bounced back from a loss to their in-state rivals with a convincing victory over Purdue. However, the Wolverines have to go on the road for two straight tough road games and can't afford a setback if they want to make a run toward the BCS.

Iowa has two playmakers on offense in Marcus Coker and Marvin McNutt, which is always dangerous, and the Hawkeyes knocked off Michigan when the Wolverines were 5-1 last season. If Michigan doesn't bring its "A" game, history could repeat itself.

While Michigan has the firepower to score a big win, the oddsmakers aren't convinced, listing the Wolverines as just four-point favorites.