NCAA Tournament: Sizing Up the Power Conferences

Big East

The season has progressed to a point where this tight, competitive conference is starting to trim the fat.

The middle of the pack will start separating like the red sea as the good teams become distinguished from the bad. 

During the next two weeks, look for freefalling teams Cincinatti, West Viriginia, Seton Hall, Depaul, and Villanova to lose control of what was seemingly a hopeful year, only to find their good starts were only fool's gold.

However, the six or seven tournament bids representing the league are still battling for position.

Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Connecticut are neck and neck, each with experienced coaches and hungry talent. 

Georgetown seems to be the Final Four frontrunner from the Big East; however, their inability to beat Memphis and Louisville will give a sense of doubt come March, especially since both the Cardinals and UConn have been playing so phenomally as of late.

The most explosive team this weekend was Notre Dame, who put on a first-half show against visiting Marquette.

The Irish can stroke it from outside with sharpshooting guards McAlarney, Jackson, and Hillesland; Harangody continues to grow in potential and results as the year progresses.

Marquette and Pittsburgh continue to lose believers as their inconsistency and short-handedness prevail over the smooth cohesiveness needed to stay atop this league.

Should the seedings be unkind to them, a first or second round upset could be their fate.

The wildcard however, is Syracuse.

They have some talented freshmen, but they will be truly battletested the next few weeks with matchups against Georgetown at home, and Louisville and Notre Dame on the road. 

Whether or not Boeheim can lead his freshmen stars Jonny Flynn and Donte Green down the stretch will determine whether or not they get snubbed from the tournament for the second straight year. 

Bottom line: Georgetown's still the favorite, but when UConn gets back to full strength, I think they'll be just as tough, even thought Louisville and Notre Dame will constantly be at the top-end of the standings.

Big Ten

This league is stronger than most people give it credit for.

Purdue and Indiana may not be sufficently battle tested, and Michigan State and Wisconsin may be shaky at times, but these four teams all have two things in common—talent and solid coaching.

Purdue swept Wisconsin for the year after this weekend, and they'll be taking on Michigan State and Indiana over the next 10 days.

They have four guys in near-double figures, and are overall solid both sides of the floor, while Michigan State and Wisconsin both have experienced groups looking to make a run.

However, if D.J. White controls the paint like he did against Ohio State on Sunday, Indiana will be the clear frontrunners.

As they continue to improve with that dynamic duo of theirs, they'll silence the many skeptics.

I wouldn't bet against an early exit for the Hoosiers, but no one should count out a Final Four run. With Gordon on the perimeter and D.J. White showing off his Shaq-like dominance down low, this team can beat anybody in the country.

Bottom line—it looks like a four bid league as Ohio State simply does not have any quality wins. Yet any of the four bids can make some noise in the tournament, at least on paper.

Big 12

Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas head the standings, but Monday's KU/TX showdown will give us all a hint as to who the favorite is.

At the moment, however, Kansas still stands as a team that has encountered only one roadbump this year against a Kansas State team that was absolutely on fire for a night (remember the Wildcats lost to a short handed Missouri team following the upset).

They're getting it done on both ends of the court, with six or seven guys contributing night in and night out.

The tandems of Beasley/Walker and Augustin/Abrams/James are too explosive to ignore, however, which makes this year's home stretch all the more exciting to watch as the top-half of the standings begin playing each other.

A&M and Baylor continue to be the tourney shoe-ins that haven't done anything worth being excited about, but they're hungry, athletic, and they can score in bunches, which makes them just as deadly as the three teams ahead.

Bottom line—Expect at least two of these teams to be in the Elite Eight, possibly three.

I'm still not sold on Baylor and A&M, as I think the Bears' inexperience and Turgeon's unprovenness will make them vulnerable come the first or second round.

But of course, there are more good signs than bad, and all five of these teams will be fun to follow in March.

SEC

Tennessee followed an impressive win over Florida with a  two-point escape at LSU, and Vanderbilt continues to struggle with bad teams and get blown out by good teams.

The Commodores play Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi State next, so we'll see if they're contenders or pretenders in the Southeast.

Should they continue their landslide, it's more than possible for the Commodores (and while we're at it, Ole Miss seems to be falling off the map as well) to be ousted from tournament talks.

That's a maybe though, as they've got enough weapons in Ogilvy, Beal, and Shan Foster to pull off a few more quality wins and get in.

As Vandy loses credibility, Arkansas continues to climb a four-game winning streak, and rides momentum from last week's double blowout over Florida and Mississippi State into Tennessee and Mississippi State again this week.

They've also got Kentucky in the near future, as the Razorbacks are silent but legit contenders with Beverley and Weems dominating the backcourt.

I was never a believer in Florida's diaper dandies, and their two blowout losses showed how far they are from where they want to be. They've got talent on both ends of the floor for sure, but with extremely young guys that are hit or miss in Lucas, Speights, and Calathes, a successful March run is not favorable, (at least not like those of the past two years).

Kentucky continues to patch up their resume and make up for early season losses by winning as many games as possible, and they're doing a great job at beating the teams they're supposed to beat.

They're taking a five-game winning streak into Vandy, LSU, and Georgia.

As they continue to get to full strength and climb the standings, it will no longer be a matter of whether or not they make the tournament, but how far they'll go. If they get their role players to continue stepping up as Patterson and Bradley lead the way, it would be hard to count out a late run into April. 

Bottom line—At the top of such a competitive conference, Tennessee is the only proven one.

Although five or six SEC teams have bids all but locked up, the Vols have showed the most signs of a Final Four run.

Lofton showed a spurt of his deadly ways against Florida, and the other guys that have been carrying this team (Smith #1 and #2, Chism, Prince) are only getting better defensively and becoming more cohesive as we move along. When the fog clears, these guys will be the deepest in March (unless, of course, UK spoils the fun).

ACC

In a span of two weeks this conference turned from a two-bid league to a four-bid league.

Maryland continues to impress as they take a four-game winning streak into Cameron on Wednesday.

Though shaky in the beginning of they year, their win over UNC has proven them to be legit, as they've got dangerous weapons both sides of the floor.

They'll give teams fits in the low post with Gist and Osby, and their backcourt is a solid one with Vasquez and Hayes.

One would think they're a lock for the tournament as their schedule past Duke is fairly easy. Whether or not they've got the consistency to beat who they're supposed to beat is the question.

How far in will they go in March? Who knows. One thing's for sure: they're not a team you want to mess around with.

Clemson has five guys averaging double digits, and seem to consistently come up with good starts against North Carolina, but are more often than not unable to finish.

They'll beat who they have to beat and get into the tournament, but if Purnell can get these guys playing smooth, hard, five-man basketball, they can pound it inside and run with any team (literally).

The main goal however, is playing well down the stretch.

Bottom line—Duke is obviously the front runner since the win in Chapel Hill.

One should take into account that Lawson was gone and Duke won't make 13 three pointers every night, but over the course of the season Duke's starting five, plus Scheyer, have showed up night in and night out, playing consistently great basketball (barring the shaky 1st half against BC on Saturday).

This team has way too many dangerous weapons that constantly perform at a high level, and should expect nothing short of an Elite 8 run. 

Carolina is of course missing Lawson, but with near upsets WITH Lawson against Clemson and Georgia Tech, and a loss to Maryland, it's obvious that their weakness lies in defense and lack of consistency from role players (Ginyard, Ellington, Greene, etc).

Any team with Hansbrough and Lawson has a shot in March, but if the other guys don't perform, forget about it. They've still got the goods to pull out a trip to San Antonio, but if they don't play better defense, don't be surprised if they fail.


Pac-10

The conference continues to consist of nine teams that can beat each other any given night (exemplified by Cal's win over Wazzou and Washington's win Sunday over UCLA), but it's an obvious five or six bid league for now as Oregon continues to fall off the map.

UCLA is still a frontrunner as the 3rd or 4th best team in the country with Memphis, Kansas, and Duke.

Their weapons range from inside (Love, Mata, Mbah M Boute) to outside (Collison, Westbrook, Shipp), and offense to defense.

They've lost at Washington each of the past four years, so it's nothing to be worried about in La-La Land, although their matchup with USC on Sunday should cause alarm as they try to avenge an early season loss.

Stanford shows to be as strong as I predicted them to be early on. Not only are the Lopez twins unstoppable down low, but when Anthony Goods, Lawrence Hill, and Taj Finger constantly making shots, could a possible Final Four run be in the works?

Could be indeed, as they provide matchup problems for everyone. They take a seven-game winning streak into Arizona this week.

Speaking of the Arizona teams, they sit in the middle of the pack with Washington state and USC.

These four continue to beat down on each other (WSU over USC, ASU over AZ, AZ over USC, WSU over ASU, USC over ASU, AZ over WSU, you get it).

Arizona State and Washington State both showed signs of falling off the map with five and three-game losing streaks respectively, but Wazzou should be getting back in the mix this week against the Oregon teams following a win over the Trojans, especially with Weaver heating up and Low/Rochestie hitting jumpers, not to mention Cowgill playing hard against the enormous big men in the conference.

ASU is still a question, but with Glasser and Pendergraph playing well together, not to mention James Harden, they can beat just about anybody. Five losses in a row is a lot to make up for, but Sunday's win over Arizona will hopefully give them momentum with Stanford coming into town.

USC still has a tough resume on their side (gave Memphis and Kansas fits, beat UCLA) , but they need to prove themselves further to get the high seed their talent implies. 

They're not as big inside as their conference-mates are, and must rely on stellar guard play from Daniel Hackett, Mayo, and Angelo Johnson, as well their small but efficient frontcourt in Taj Gibson and Davon Jefferson.

It will be alot to overcome with all that individual talent and lack of size, but if they find a way to play consistently good defense down the stretch, the sky's the limit for the Trojans.

UCLA comes to town followed by the Oregon teams, so the Trojans will benefit with another upset and a climb up the standings.

As far as March goes, they're good enough to beat anyone, but they're young and inconsistent enough to get beaten by anyone.

Arizona's talent also exceeds what most coaches could ask for, but it becomes a nightly question whether or not Budinger shows up, which is a huge problem. Bayless cannot be the number one guy for the 'Cats to be successful in a conference laden with big men, and Hill and McClellan are simply not as good as the other frontcourts. Budinger has to show up, and look for him to come up big when it counts.

Bottom line—UCLA is a Final Four frontrunner followed closely by Stanford, and the four teams below them have just as much potential, and the four teams below THEM are eager to spoil the fun and possibly steal a bid.

I'm not kidding when I say nine of these teams can steal the championship without much surprise, but it's a five-bid league right now, with Arizona State having the most to prove.

I expect UCLA and Stanford in the Elite Eight, as the other four (WSU, USC, ASU, AZ) are good, but upset prone.

Non-power conferences

Memphis continues to dominate C-USA, and the A-10 begins to look stronger with St. Joes and Charlotte joining Xavier and Rhode Island as top dogs.

Memphis is dominant on all sides of the floor, battle tested, well-coached, and has sufficient talent to make as deep of a run as their record implies.

What will be their downfall?

Free throw shooting and perimeter defense.

It's not enough to really be skeptical of this team, because they are indeed a legitimate number one seed, but are they a Final Four lock?

I don't think so.

St. Mary's with a good win over Gonzaga, Butler steals one at Valpo, Xavier beats the buzzer against Saint Louis, Drake is still hot.

These guys will have high seeds in March, and it could be upset galore as they are all not overwhelmingrly strong teams.

Projected Elite Eight without seeing the brackets: Memphis, Kansas, Duke, UCLA, Stanford, Tennessee, North Carolina, Kansas State