Detroit Lions Running Game Setting Matthew Stafford Up to Fail

Matthew Stafford looked awful in Sunday's loss to the Falcons. He ran for his life, his throws were erratic and he was terrible on third down. He completed just 46.9% of his passes for 183 yards and one touchdown; all 2011 season lows. He was sacked three times and injured on the last play of the game.

Who was this 23-year-old kid locking onto one receiver and scrambling until he got open? Why is he breaking down to scramble when he has time to throw? What happened to the accurate, poised and confident quarterback who led the Lions to a 5-0 start?

He was set up to fail by his team's total lack of a running game.

At first glance, the Lions tailbacks did pretty well for themselves. Filling in for the injured Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams each had nine carries; they gained 50 and 44 yards respectively. Combined, that's an outstanding 5.22 yards per carry.

What those numbers don't show is how the lack of running success on first and second down doomed Stafford to a series of third-and-long situations.

In the book The Hidden Game of Football, the authors outline a new way of defining a successful football play. On first down, a successful play gains four yards. On second down, a successful play gains half the remaining distance to converting the first down. On third down, a successful play converts first down. This theory informs the analysis at awesome websites like Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats.

This chart shows the Lions success rate on first and second down, broken out by play type (run/pass) and player. The first number is the number of plays in that category. The number after the first slash is the number of plays that were “successful," and the number after the second slash is the average yards-per-play gained.

Maurice Morris ran seven times on first down, never successfully, and averaged 2.0 yards per carry. Keiland Williams fared a little better; he gained four or more yards twice on five carries. He also broke a long one that swelled his first-down average up 6.4 YPC. However, neither back could compare to the first-down passing game, which was successful six of 10 attempts and averaged 9.9 YPA.

The Lions average distance-to-conversion on second down was a whopping eight yards. On an average second-down play, Matthew Stafford and the Lions were looking at second-and-eight; not a recipe for success. The Lions ran on first down 52.2% of the time, but attempted a pass on 66.7% of second downs. The Lions' play-calling balance on first down was great, but the failure to run well made the offense one-dimensional.

With defenses preparing for either a run or pass, Stafford played like himself. Six of Stafford's 10 first-down pass dropbacks were "succesful," gaining 4 yards or more. He completed six of nine passes for 104 yards and a touchdown on first down, exactly the kind of production we've seen from him all year.

With the defense knowing what was coming, second-down passing effectiveness suffered. Only five of 13 pass dropbacks were successful, and he averaged just 4.62 yards per attempt. Stafford forced it to Calvin Johnson. However, Johnson could catch only one of his four second-down targets.

That lack of effectiveness on second down explains why the Lions were so frequently facing third-and-long—and thus, why they only converted one of twelve third downs.

There is very little the Lions can do to improve the running game, now that the trade deadline has passed. However, the Lions have to do a better job of putting Stafford in position to succeed. Even with the lack of a running game, when he spread the ball around to his other weapons he was very effective.

Seven of Stafford's 11 non-Megatron targets on first and second down were successful, averaging 6.09 YPA. That's not amazing, but it's much better than forcing it to Johnson, or pounding into the back of the Lions offensive line.

If the Lions are going to start moving the ball again, Stafford will have to settle for shorter, more effective passes to his other receivers, finding holes in the defense and taking six yards when he can. Well, that or Jahvid Best will have to get healthy, quick.