2011 College Football Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Oklahoma over Kansas State

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically-based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma at Kansas State

There's 7-0 and then there's 7-0. Kansas State is 7-0, and please don't be that program apologist who defends the Wildcats' flawless start with the tired "We can only play the teams on our schedule" reset.

The truth is, 73-year-old Bill Snyder has done a hell of a job leading his team into Week 9 undefeated. However, only one of those wins came against a ranked team—a one-point victory over Baylor at home.

With quarterback Colin Klein leading their rush-first offense, the Cats still only rank 19th in rushing yards (213.9). If Oklahoma (116.6 rush yards allowed per game) neutralizes the ground game, K-State really doesn't have the passing attack (ranked 110th in passing) to keep pace with the up-tempo Sooners.

The Wildcats' 23rd-ranked scoring defense (19.7 points per game) will have its hands full slowing down Landry Jones and company, especially after a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech at home.

Unless something wacky happens at the top of the BCS standings, Bob Stoops' 6-1 Sooners are now playing solely for the Big 12 title and a sexy bowl bid. Jones continues to impress with nearly 2,600 yards passing and 21 touchdowns (five TDs in the loss to Tech in Week 8).

The Sooners are averaging 44.3 points per game (seventh in FBS) and should have no problem reaching that threshold considering the Wildcats have allowed lesser opponents to score 21 or more points in four out of their seven games this season.

Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Oklahoma at Kansas State 101 times, and it's the Sooners winning 87.1 percent of the time by an average score of 38-24.

Michigan State at Nebraska

Sparty shocked and awed our college football simulation engine with their last-second, Hail-Mary- full-of-grace heave into the end zone that ricocheted off a face mask and into the hands of Keith Nichol. A few minutes later, an instant replay overturned the referees' call on the field, and a late fourth quarter rally by Wisconsin was erased.

It's hard to simulate that outcome, even with a highly successful (77.1 percent accuracy straight up) simulation engine.

For Michigan State's next trick and bid to secure the top spot in the Big Ten's Legends Division, the Spartans must beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Kirk Cousins played a nearly flawless game against the Badgers, finishing 22 of 31 for 290 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. State's offensive efficiency can exploit a once-dominant Nebraska defense, now ranked 54th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, on Saturday.

The Cornhuskers come off a beatdown of lowly Minnesota 41-14. Rex Burkhead, a hero in the team's rally against Ohio State three weeks ago, has emerged as the team's leading rusher ahead of Taylor Martinez. On 130 carries, Burkhead has racked up 752 yards and 10 touchdowns.

We simulated the Spartans and Cornhuskers 101 times, and it's Michigan State walking out of Lincoln with a win 64.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-23.

College Football Week 9
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Virginia Cavaliers	17.8	19	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	82.2	31
North Carolina State Wolfpack	20.8	23	Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles	79.2	33
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	35.6	25	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	64.4	29
Boston College Eagles	44.6	21	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	55.4	23
Clemson Tigers	69.3	27	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	30.7	20
Virginia Tech Hokies	82.2	34	Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils	17.8	21
Connecticut Huskies	27.7	19	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	72.3	26
Syracuse Orange	61.4	26	Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals	38.6	22
West Virginia Mountaineers	88.1	31	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	11.9	20
Purdue Boilermakers	37.6	26	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	62.4	32
Illinois Fighting Illini	46.5	22	Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	53.5	24
Michigan State Spartans	64.4	27	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	35.6	23
Wisconsin Badgers	75.7	29	Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	24.3	20
Northwestern Wildcats	77.2	33	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	22.8	23
Iowa Hawkeyes	92.1	31	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	7.9	13
Ball State Cardinals	39.6	24	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	60.4	27
Buffalo Bulls	40.6	20	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	59.4	23
Bowling Green Falcons	47.5	21	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	52.5	22
Central Michigan Chippewas	86.1	31	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	13.9	17
Washington State Cougars	5.0	20	Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks	95.0	43
Colorado Buffaloes	15.8	20	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	84.2	32
Oregon State Beavers	35.6	21	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	64.4	25
Arizona Wildcats	48.5	26	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	51.5	27
California Golden Bears	60.4	26	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	39.6	21
Stanford Cardinal	62.9	35	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	37.1	28
Mississippi Rebels	28.7	22	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	71.3	30
Florida Gators	39.1	21	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	60.9	26
South Carolina Gamecocks	58.9	23	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers	41.1	20
Mississippi State Bulldogs	80.2	29	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	19.8	18
Arkansas Razorbacks	93.1	34	Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	6.9	13
San Jose State Spartans	27.7	23	Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	72.3	31
Hawaii Warriors	83.2	34	Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals	16.8	21
Nevada Wolf Pack	89.1	34	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	10.9	17
Fordham Rams	5.0	9	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	95.0	43
Navy Midshipmen	21.8	22	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	78.2	32
Kansas Jayhawks	5.0	17	Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns	95.0	34
Iowa State Cyclones	24.8	23	Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	75.2	32
Baylor Bears	27.7	31	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	72.3	40
Missouri Tigers	33.7	23	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	66.3	29
Oklahoma Sooners	87.1	38	Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats	12.9	24
Memphis Tigers	5.0	13	Boxscore
@ UCF Knights	95.0	39
Rice Owls	17.8	27	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	82.2	41
Tulane Green Wave	31.7	27	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	68.3	34
UAB Blazers	44.6	24	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	55.4	27
Southern Methodist Mustangs	48.5	32	Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	51.5	34
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	82.2	35	Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners	17.8	24
Wyoming Cowboys	10.9	15	Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs	89.1	30
Brigham Young Cougars	21.8	24	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	78.2	34
Colorado State Rams	76.2	29	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	23.8	20
Air Force Falcons	95.0	36	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	5.0	11
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	34.2	22	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	65.8	29
Troy Trojans	36.6	24	Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers	63.4	29
North Texas Mean Green	36.1	27	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	63.9	31
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	52.5	25	Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	47.5	24