NFL Fact or Fiction: New Orleans Saints Will Face San Diego Chargers in SB XLVI

Saints and Chargers. Will either team be in Super Bowl XLIV? Will both?

New Orleans has been there before and succeeded. But they have different players this year and a different team. Do they have the right pieces to win another championship? Will Drew Brees ever find his championship form?

San Diego has traditionally been a good team. Some years, they have been a great team. The one constant, however, has been their inability to win big games and succeed in the playoffs. Has Philip Rivers finally come into his own? Does he have enough help on the defensive side of the ball to offset his propensity for interceptions? 

There are a few characters that virtually all Super Bowl winners have, certain qualities that set elite teams apart from the rest of the pack. Fact or fiction: the Saints and the Chargers both have the traits that define a Super Bowl caliber team. Let's see.

Turnovers: Saints

One of the most glaring differences between the 2009 Saints team that won the Super Bowl and the teams since has been their turnover differential. In their Super Bowl winning season, New Orleans had a plus-11 turnover ratio.

In 2011, the Saints’ turnover ratio is minus-seven. Drew Brees has an uncharacteristically high eight interceptions already on the season.

Compounding Brees’ problems, New Orleans is not forcing turnovers very often. They only have four interceptions on the season, the third worst number in the league.

If Brees does not fix his turnover woes soon, and the Saints defense does not start playing more aggressively, New Orleans’ chances of reaching the Super Bowl will continue to decrease.

Fiction.

Turnovers: Chargers

The Chargers have a minus-five turnover ratio. That number must improve drastically if the team wants to reach the Super Bowl.

Philip Rivers has already thrown nine interceptions this season, a shockingly high number for only six games. San Diego and Rivers also have a propensity to turn the ball over at bad times, ending good drives or giving the opposing team momentum. 

The Chargers have done a fairly good job of forcing turnovers, so it is really up to the offense to start taking care of the ball better. Their turnover ratio must flip by the end of the season or San Diego will not be in the playoffs long. 

Fiction.

Great Offense/Defense: Saints

Traditional wisdom suggests that defense wins games. It stands to reason then, that a team with a great defense will often win the Super Bowl. Yes, it is true that the team with the best defense in the actual championship game tends to win; however, it is becoming more and more obvious that the NFL is a league that has begun to be dominated by offense.

Last year, the Packers had one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and a host of talented wide receivers. Tom Brady has made the Patriots a playoffs mainstay. The Steelers and the Colts had Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning, along with many other skilled offensive players.

Therefore, it can be argued that a team needs either an elite offense or an elite defense to win the Super Bowl. Keep in mind, reaching the Super Bowl with an awful offense or defense is almost impossible. So being elite on one side of the ball and good, but not great, on the other is necessary.

In this category, the Saints are Super Bowl worthy. Their offense is second in the league and their defense is firmly in the middle of the pack. New Orleans averages 467 yards per game. As their 62-7 victory on Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts indicated, they are a team that is very capable of overwhelming opponents by scoring points.

Fact.

Great Offense/Defense: Chargers

The Chargers, too, can contend in this category. Their defense is fifth in the league, allowing 297 yards per game. They are third in the league in passing yards allowed, giving up just over 175 yards per game.

Their offense is nothing to scoff at either, ranking eighth overall in the league in gaining just under 400 yards per game.

These statistics indicate that the Chargers should be a tough matchup for any team. They can keep an opposing team from moving down the field. Upon getting the ball back, San Diego can march down the field themselves, easily deflating their opposition.

Fact.

Quarterback Play: Saints

A good quarterback is key to a team’s Super Bowl success. A quarterback controls his team’s offensive flow, manages the game and can singe-handedly score points or give them away.

Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is poised under pressure, has confidence and is the leader of his team.

This season, however, Brees has had a few games in which he has thrown costly interceptions, missed his receivers and made bad decisions. There have also been games (albeit one against the Colts) where Brees looked like far and away the best quarterback in the league. 

Which Drew Brees will finish up the season for the Saints? If it is the poised, mistake-free leader, New Orleans could easily make their way to the Super Bowl. However, if Brees continues to throw picks and miss receivers, the disadvantage will be too much for the team to overcome.

Undecided.

Quarterback Play: Chargers

Philip Rivers is the classic example of a quarterback who has all the tools to be great, but just hasn’t quite figured out how to use them yet.

Rivers averages 285 passing yards per game, which ranks eighth in the NFL. However, he is also one of only three quarterbacks in the league with more interceptions than touchdowns. Rivers has thrown nine picks and just seven touchdowns.

Rivers is capable of making a big play. He has a strong arm and can hit receivers. However, he also has a habit of trying to force passes and overestimating either his arm or his teammates’ speed and making erratic throws.

Rivers must find a way to keep better control of the ball if he wants to lead his team to a Super Bowl. Unlike Drew Brees, Rivers has not shown that he can play at a high enough level to carry his team without making errors.

Fiction.

Performance Against Quality Opponents: Saints

The Saints have played a good schedule so far this year. They opened their season by playing the Packers, arguably the best team in the league. Half of their next opponents currently have records over .500, although they are not among the NFL’s elite teams.

New Orleans currently has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. However, a few teams such as Tampa Bay and Atlanta had a rough start to 2011 and may improve as the season wears on.

The Saints have been tested and do still have some tough teams remaining on their schedule. If the team can withstand some late season tests, they should have just the right combination of experience against good teams without being bombarded by great teams. 

Fact.

Performance Against Quality Opponents: Chargers

San Diego has not played very good teams this season. The only teams they have faced so far that have a record over .500 are the Patriots and Jets. The Jets were 3-3 before playing the Chargers last Sunday and New York’s win against San Diego pushed them over .500. The Patriots are admittedly a good team, and they got thrashed accordingly, 35-21.

The Chargers have clearly not played very well against the two formidable opponents they have faced this season. Winning games against inferior teams is important, but it will not prepare a squad for the Super Bowl.

There is both good news and bad news for San Diego. The good news is that their schedule will get tougher, allowing them to see how the team plays against good competition.

The bad news is that their schedule gets a lot tougher. In the next 10 games, they play only two teams with losing records. The Chargers will need to improve their play just to make the playoffs facing these teams.

Fiction. So far.

Mistakes Under Pressure: Saints

The Saints, by all accounts, are a composed team. Drew Brees plays well under pressure and is very comfortable with both his receivers and his coach. Team chemistry like the Saints have makes it easier for a team to execute in late game situations as they are not often rattled.

The Saints have played on the big stage before. Many members of the 2009 Super Bowl winning squad are still playing for New Orleans. The more players that understand what it means to play in the most important game of the NFL season, the better.

Fact.

Mistakes Under Pressure: Chargers

The Chargers are a different story. San Diego has made it almost a routine to blow big leads and fold late. Against the Jets last week, San Diego was up for much of the game, but gave it away late.

Against the Patriots, the Chargers turned the ball over three times inside New England’s 35-yard line, leading to 17 points and a loss. Last season, the Chargers also lost to the Patriots after turning the ball over four times. New England gained just 179 yards in the game.

The Chargers also have a history of folding in the playoffs, no matter how overpowering or skilled their team was in the regular season. While it is tempting to say that one more year under Philip Rivers and Norv Turner might have finally helped the Chargers turn the corner, it is unlikely. 

San Diego has a habit of losing important games and letting outside forces overpower their talent. Unless the Chargers find some miracle cure for their problems winning big games (and no, it is not Tim Tebow), they will not even get close enough to taste a Super Bowl.

Fiction.

Saints vs. Chargers in the Super Bowl?

Both teams have had their problems this season. Yet, both have promise.

Drew Brees and the Saints have shown some uncharacteristic rust early in their high turnover rate. However, New Orleans ultimately has the intangibles—quarterback play, team chemistry, poise—that can overcome a few bad plays.

The Saints are a legitimate Super Bowl contender and if they make it to Indianapolis in February, their experience on the same stage in 2009 should lead them to victory once again.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are a more difficult team to predict. They are in some ways, the opposite of the Saints—a team with enough talent to take them to the Super Bowl and back, but without the key team traits that will ensure their success. Despite all their skill, San Diego could combust at any time.

For the Chargers to reach the Super Bowl, they need the perfect combination of self-awareness, drive and luck to occur at the exact same time. This seems rather unlikely.

Super Bowl XLVI could play host to the Saints, but the Chargers will probably be left watching from home.