BCS Rankings 2011: Mapping out LSU Tigers' Path to the National Title

The BCS National Championship game will have its participants determined in a little over a month with the LSU Tigers in command of their own fate as the end of the season approaches.  While the Tigers have let down at times during the season, their offense still finds ways to turn up the heat and score often, despite its stagnation.

After dominating Auburn in complete fashion on Saturday without suspended players Tyrann Mathieu and Spencer Ware, LSU looks like the strongest team in the nation.  If they want to secure a berth to the January 9 BCS National Championship in New Orleans, what remaining obstacles will Les Miles' Bayou Bengals have to overcome?

Alabama Crimson Tide: The Gatekeepers

After both teams enjoy a week off, LSU travels to Tuscaloosa, Alabama for a meeting with the Crimson Tide.  While the rivalry spans back to 1895, the Tigers have split the series with their former coach Nick Saban, in recent years.  This will mark the fifth time the two teams have competed in what's become known as the "Saban Bowl."

With LSU atop the BCS rankings and Alabama slightly behind them at No. 2, most fans believe this is the season's real national championship.  Whoever wins this game will likely take home the crown this season.

Both teams are identical in talent and team identity.  What happens when these twins from the SEC West meet and face like images of themselves?

The Cupcakes from Up North

If LSU passes the trial by fire they'll receive in Alabama on November 5, the Tigers will have a couple of easy contests from opponents who reside north of Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

On November 12, the Bayou Bengals welcome Western Kentucky to Tiger Stadium for a contest which shouldn't prove difficult for LSU.  Western Kentucky is, currently, 3-4 this season with a 3-1 record in the Sun Belt.  They rank 102nd in passing and 53rd in rushing among all Division I programs with a mere 97th ranking in scoring. 

The Hilltoppers will be an easy late season tune-up for the the Tigers, who'll probably need to recover from the previous week's dogfight with the Crimson Tide.

Ole Miss Rebels

Afterwards, LSU travels up the road to Oxford, Mississippi for a match with the Ole Miss Rebels.  Though the Rebels are led by Houston Nutt who's been a thorn in the side of the Tigers in the past, it's doubtful Ole Miss can muster the offense and defense required to upset the Tigers.

Ole Miss will be another late season tune-up, though more difficult than the contest with Western Kentucky.  Ole Miss gave Arkansas a game before they were run out of their own stadium by the Razorbacks. 

This is an excellent opportunity for LSU score loads of points to show the country why they're No. 1.

Arkansas Upset?

The "Battle for the Golden Boot" has proven troublesome for the Tigers in recent years.  Though Les Miles was able to lead his team to a 33-30 victory against the unranked Razorbacks in 2009, the Tigers have struggled at the end of the season three out of the past four years.  2007, 2008 and 2010 have been owned by Arkansas.

Arkansas is the last true test for LSU.  While talented, the Tigers have found a way to let down often at the end of the season.  If the Tigers walk into this game undefeated, a loss to Arkansas would be devastating to this program.

The Razorbacks looked fallible against Ole Miss, but they showed how prolific their offense can be when they scored 29 straight points to overcome the Rebels.  This is a Bobby Petrino-coached program that can score points early and often.

Can LSU withstand its last test of the season?  The home crowd should be energized for this battle of ranked opponents, but if the Tigers have proven anything, they know how to drop the last game of the season.

SEC Championship

If they run the table from now until the end of the season, the Tigers will have an invitation to Atlanta where they'll take on the SEC East champion.  As any fan, casual or expert, knows, the SEC East is the little brother of the SEC West, this year.  They're a significant step below their western counterparts.

The SEC championship game will be a warm up for the Tigers who have no chance of losing the game.  Marching into Atlanta, LSU's resume will include victories against Oregon, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia and Auburn, among others.  The variety of offenses and their strength of schedule will be all they need to enter the Georgia Dome prepared to defeat South Carolina or Georgia, neither of whom has the power to defeat the Tigers.

South Carolina will be without the SEC's top running back Marcus Lattimore and experienced quarterback Stephen Garcia.  Georgia enters the game, but behind a resume that includes losses to Boise State and South Carolina.  Neither team has the talent to defeat LSU.

Once the Tigers dispatch their SEC foe, look for a party on Peachtree as LSU's fans ready themselves for a trip down the road to the Super Dome in New Orleans.

The Alternative

It must be considered what happens if LSU loses to Alabama, but Alabama loses the SEC Championship.  Does a one-loss SEC program enter the BCS National Championship game?  If so, who travels to New Orleans?

It's very likely the end of the season will see undefeated Stanford, Clemson, Oklahoma State and Boise State programs.  Is the SEC strength of schedule enough to usurp these teams for a chance to win the national title?

If Alabama defeats LSU but loses the SEC Championship, there are two arguments to be made.  First, LSU deserves to be ranked above Alabama, because the Alabama loss is a "better" loss than a loss to a weaker SEC East opponent.  This argument prevailed in 1993 when Notre Dame defeated FSU, but lost to Boston College the following week.  FSU was awarded the national championship.

The other argument is that Alabama played an extra game, subjecting them to higher risk of loss than the Tigers.  If this line of reasoning wins, it'll be the end of the road for the Tigers and any chance of a BCS appearance.

All of this assumes the SEC would still be considered a favorite for a spot in the national championship with one loss versus other undefeated programs with weaker schedules.

If LSU wins all of its remaining games, there will be no question that they deserve to play for the national championship in their own backyard.