5 Reasons Indianapolis Colts Will Upset New Orleans Saints

I know this sounds ludicrous, but the Indianapolis Colts do have a chance to upset the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night.

The 0-6 Colts are still looking for their first win of the season. What better way to get it than beating the team that sent them back to Indianapolis in 2009 as Super Bowl XLIV runner up?

The Saints are 4-2, but have struggled some in every game this season.  Besides the 30-13 Week 2 win over Chicago every game has been close. Four of the six games' final score deficit was within a touchdown.

The Saints enter Sunday coming off of a 26-20 loss last week to division rival Tampa Bay.  The loss snapped a four game win streak after a week one loss at Green Bay.

Sunday night's game is also the first time since Sept. 25 that the Saints have had a home game.  This can be a factor is the game as well.

The Colts are coming off of a 27-17 loss to Cincinnati last week, but were only a few plays away from winning.

Former Colts coach Tony Dungy came to the team headquarters this week and spoke to the players about not giving up and keep fighting on.

I think they can and here's the reasons why.

The Saints Turn the Ball over Too Much This Season

Drew Brees may have good stats this year with completing 68.6 percent of his passes and 13 touchdowns, but his interception total is anything but impressive.

His eight interceptions are tied for second most in the NFL.  He's only one interception behind the league's highest at nine.

To make matters worse Brees has thrown all eight of his interceptions in the last four games including three last week at Tampa Bay.

In the two match-ups against AFC South foes Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, Brees threw two picks in both of those games a piece.

If the Colts can get pressure on Brees, get their hands up and tip some passes, it could be a long night for Brees.  We all know the Colts have two of the best defensive ends to play the game in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

The pressure will hide the Colts secondary woes and can help them cover better.

The Saints offensive line hasn't helped Brees much either.  He has been sacked 11 times already.  The pressure is what makes Brees struggle and the Colts will bring the heat on Sunday Night.

Dwight Freeney is just a few sacks away from getting 100 sacks in his career.  He's also the league leader since 2002 in sacks and forced fumbles.

The Saints are a -7 in the turnover battle. That can be a key stat in the game Sunday where the Colts have been a lot better since putting Curtis Painter as the starting quarterback.

The Saints Defensive Woes

The Saints defense isn't helping much this year. 

They rank 19th against the pass and 14th against the rush.

What could hurt the Saints is if they don't get to Colts quarterback Curtis Painter quick enough.

The Saints bring all kinds of pressure from all over, but if quarterbacks read where the blitz is coming from it means big gains for the offense.

The Bucs tried this approach with the Colts a few weeks ago on Monday night.  Pierre Garcon broke two big receptions for long touchdowns.  I expect the same to happen on Sunday night.

The screen pass and short slant routes will make the Saints think twice before bringing all that pressure.

The Colts are also finally utilizing the middle of the field again.  After Austin Collie's two big hits that left his career in jeopardy the Colts stopped passing over the middle.  That used to be a spot where they'd hit tight end Dallas Clark or Austin Collie over the last few years.

The last few weeks they're using the middle again.  Collie has gotten more action in the middle as has Dallas Clark.

That will also be a key on Sunday Night.  The middle of the field will be wide open with blitz packages and even a bubble screen for Donald Brown could make big gains.

Don't forget about New Orleans native Reggie Wayne either.  He was born in New Orleans and was a huge Saints fan growing up.  Going back home to play he will surely have an impact on this game. 

The Saints defense doesn't look to make big plays either.  They only have four takeaways all season.

If you mix that with Curtis Painter's fourth consecutive start and improvement at the position each week, then the Colts should score with little resistance.

Primetime Game

The Colts at Saints matchup is an NBC Sunday Night Football nationally televised game. 

This will be the second time this season the Colts have played on Sunday Night Football.  They lost 23-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week three. 

Many thought the Colts would lose badly, but they played great under the big lights.

They also played the following week in Week 4 on Monday Night football in a close loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Like the Steelers game many thought the Colts would be at a huge disadvantage and lose to the upstart Bucs.  The Colts didn't disappoint and were in control for most of the game.

The Colts seem to play well in prime time.  The biggest wins and comebacks in franchise history came in prime time.

The Colts are 12-5 on NBC since 2006 when NBC's Sunday Night Football telecast started. 

They had two losses in 2007 where an Adam Vinatieri missed field goal at the end of the game gave the Colts a two point loss. 

Then the last regular season game of the year and the last game of the RCA Dome the Colts lost to the Tennessee Titans 16-10.  The Colts rested their starters and lost with their back-ups.

They only lost three times since with a 2008 loss to the Chicago Bears to open the new Lucas Oil Stadium, a bad loss last season at home against the San Diego Chargers, and the loss in Week 3 to the Steelers.

For some reason the Colts players get pumped up to play under the lights. 

Usually I'd say a winless team would just lay down on a prime time matchup, but this team will be scary.  They still have weapons and they want to show the world this team can still win.

The Saints on the other hand are only 4-3 on Sunday/Thursday Night Football telecasts. 

They struggle big in prime time including a loss in the season opening game to the Green Bay Packers on the opening game in week one on Thursday night.

The Colts have an edge on anyone they play in prime time games.

Colts Aren't This Bad

The Colts are the NFL's most successful regular season team over the last decade. 

They rank second to the San Francisco 49ers for the most consecutive 10-win seasons in a row.

If they win out (which is highly unlikely, but you never know) they'd beat that mark.  The players still want to beat it and think they can.

I mean less than two years ago the Colts were celebrating an NFL record 22nd consecutive win over the Denver Broncos.  That win also broke their tie with the 49ers for most wins in a decade.

Even though their without Manning they still have playmakers.  These playmakers all said they're not giving up.

On their best day the playmakers are still better than the guys they're lining up against.

It's not like the team is totally rebuilding and lost everyone.  They still have most of the key players that were on that 2009 Super Bowl runner-up team.

It's just time they start turning the misfortunes and mistakes around.

The Saints are just a few plays away from being where the Colts are at. 

Think about it. 

In my first slide, I said four of their six games were decided within a touchdown score or less. Imagine if one mistake went the other team's way.  The Saints would be 2-4 instead of 4-2.

The Colts on the other hand are on the other side of the coin.  Four of their six games as well have been decided within a touchdown or less. 

You can almost count last week's in there since Garcon's fumble led to a fluke touchdown.  If we did count last week's game it would be five of the six.

Just think if one thing, only one thing bounced the Colts' way in each game like it used to. They'd be 5-1 or at worst 4-2 right now. 

That's how small the margin of error is in the NFL at this moment.

The Saints like I stated earlier make a lot of errors.  Maybe for once the errors will swing in the Colts favor like they used to.

Saints Let Teams Hang Around Too Long

You hear it all the time.  If you struggle to put teams away it will come back and haunt you.  The Saints have struggled to put teams away all season.

I've read a lot of blogs and studied each Saints game this season. They've failed miserably in just putting a team away. 

They've let lousy teams like the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars play with them all year. 

They can't do this on Sunday against the Colts.  If they do, the Colts can win this game a pull the upset.

The Panthers and Jags don't have playmakers to make the play to pull out the win in the end.  The Colts do.

The worst team to let hang around is a winless team.  If you give them hope they play at a higher level than any other team in anticipation of getting their first win.  Especially a Colts team with veterans.

If you give Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney extra chances to play at an even higher level, then watch out.

The Colts, as I stated before, are due and aren't this bad.

The Saints could be flirting with dangerous water if they fail to close out this game.  The Colts haven't quit all year and won't on Sunday.